[ncl-talk] trend_manken

[Hilde Fagerli]

Hi,

I am using ncl 6.3.0 and the function trend_manken.
In the documentation (https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/Document/Functions/Built-in/trend_manken.shtml) it says that the output is
'probability' and the 'Theil Sen trend estimate'.

What is this 'probability' and how is it calculated? Can you conclude from it whether a trend exists or not? Does it take into account the MK test statistics (I have more than 10 calues)?

The web page refers to http://vsp.pnnl.gov/help/Vsample/Design_Trend_Mann_Kendall.htm, but even after reading this it is not really clear to me what this probability that is calculated refers to.

I would be very grateful if anybody can help - for instance refer to the exact equations behind the 'probability'.


Best regards
Hilde Fagerli