[Grad-postdoc-assn] Fwd: ATOC Colloquium: Fri. Nov. 11 @ 11am – Erin Guderian, Tim Higgins, and Monica Morrison (SEEC S228 and Zoom)
Scott Briggs
sbriggs at ucar.edu
Thu Nov 10 08:20:52 MST 2022
FYI
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: atoc-colloquium (Andrew Winters) <atoc-colloquium at lists.colorado.edu>
Date: Thu, Nov 10, 2022 at 8:18 AM
Subject: Re: ATOC Colloquium: Fri. Nov. 11 @ 11am – Erin Guderian, Tim
Higgins, and Monica Morrison (SEEC S228 and Zoom)
To: Atoc-majors at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-majors at lists.colorado.edu>,
Atoc-minors at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-minors at lists.colorado.edu>,
atoc-students (Julie Lundquist) <atoc-students at lists.colorado.edu>,
atoc-faculty (Alexandra Jahn) <atoc-faculty at lists.colorado.edu>,
atoc-researchers (Kelly Duong) <atoc-researchers at lists.colorado.edu>,
atoc-colloquium at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-colloquium at lists.colorado.edu>
Cc: Monica Morrison <monicamo at ucar.edu>
Hi everyone,
A reminder that we will hold the final ATOC colloquium of the semester
on *Friday,
November 11 at 11am MT over Zoom and in SEEC S228*. This week's colloquium
will a trio of conference-length presentations from *ATOC graduate
students, Erin Guderian and Tim Higgins, as well as NCAR ASP Postdoctoral
Scholar, Monica Morrison*.* The zoom login information and abstracts for
each talk are provided below. Please join us for coffee and conversation
beginning at 10:45am MT and stay afterwards for a lunch catered by Illegal
Pete's.*
We look forward to seeing you tomorrow!
-The ATOC Colloquium Committee
_________________________________________________
*An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcing on
Extreme Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast*
Tim Higgins (ATOC)
Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change on extreme atmospheric
river and precipitation activity on the US west coast continues to exist.
In this work, we identify the main contributors to the changes in extreme
precipitation and atmospheric river activity over the US west coast in
addition to quantifying the trends in future AR events using a unique
high-resolution climate model run at unprecedented ensemble size. Data
computed from the Weather at Home regional climate modeling project will be
analyzed. Weather at Home is unique because it uses computing power from
volunteers’ computers to run regional climate simulations. This will be
the first Weather at Home project to examine eastern Pacific ARs and
precipitation. This analysis will include boreal winter AR events with
historical forcings from the early 21st century as well as future forcing
relevant to 1.5°C and 2° warming using output from HadAM4.
*Investigating the Relative Forcing of Tropical Ocean SST on Asian Monsoon
Precipitation using LIM *
* Erin Guderian (ATOC) *
*The Asian monsoon provides essential precipitation to one of the most
densely populated regions in the world. While the influence from ENSO and
other modes of climate variability on Asian monsoon precipitation have been
thoroughly investigated, the individual contributions from basin-wide sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies has not been fully addressed. In this
study, a linear inverse model (LIM) is applied to the leading principal
components of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST and precipitation
anomalies over Southern Asia in order to isolate the effects of SST forcing
on the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. Specifically, we will
investigate how the direct forcing from the Pacific Ocean, the direct
forcing from the Indian Ocean, and the Indo-Pacific interactions contribute
to the leading modes of precipitation variability over India. *
*The Logic of Actionable Science: Earth System Model Inadequacies and
Epistemic Risk *
Monica Morrison (NCAR ASP)
Scientific models, including Global Climate models (GCMs) and Earth System
models (ESMs), are constructed with particular purposes in mind. As a
consequence, the decisions made about what features to represent within the
target system, and how to represent these features, are a function of these
purposes. When a model is repurposed, there is a risk that the
representational decisions made through the course of construction are
inadequate for these new purposes. In the context of actionable science—the
generation of scientific knowledge for use in societal decision making,
e.g., how to adapt and develop resilience to climate change—the risk of
inadequacies in the representational content of models carries with it the
possibility of harm—e.g. maladaptation to climate change or the misuse of
limited resources. Evaluations of a model's data output is not enough to
reliably assess these risks, as there are many cases in which models get
good answers for bad reasons. Therefore, we need to rethink our standard
practices for evaluating models and how we communicate their usefulness as
GCMs/ESMs are increasingly purposed to answer actionable science questions.
__________________________________________________
*Zoom login Information:*
*Topic: ATOC Colloquium*
*Time: Friday, Nov. 11 at 11am MT*
*Join Zoom Meeting*
*https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945
<https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945>*
*Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945 *
*Passcode: ATOC*
One tap mobile
+17193594580,,97845417945# US
+16699006833,,97845417945# US (San Jose)
Dial by your location
+1 719 359 4580 US
+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)
+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)
+1 669 444 9171 US
+1 646 558 8656 US (New York)
+1 646 931 3860 US
+1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC)
+1 309 205 3325 US
+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)
+1 386 347 5053 US
+1 564 217 2000 US
Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945
Find your local number: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV
Join by SIP
97845417945 at zoomcrc.com
Join by H.323
162.255.37.11 (US West)
162.255.36.11 (US East)
115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai)
115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad)
213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands)
213.244.140.110 (Germany)
103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney)
103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne)
149.137.40.110 (Singapore)
64.211.144.160 (Brazil)
149.137.68.253 (Mexico)
69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto)
65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver)
207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo)
149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka)
Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945
Passcode: 432312
_______________________________________________________
*Andrew C. Winters*
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)
University of Colorado Boulder
311 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0311
Office: SEEC C277 || Phone: 303-735-5775
https://acwinters.weebly.com || @acwinters_wx || he/him/his
*CU Boulder acknowledges that it is located on the traditional territories
and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native
American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused
devastating and lasting impacts. Full CU Boulder land acknowledgment
<https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement> *
------------------------------
*From:* Andrew Winters
*Sent:* Monday, November 7, 2022 3:13 PM
*To:* Atoc-majors at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-majors at lists.colorado.edu>;
Atoc-minors at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-minors at lists.colorado.edu>;
atoc-students (Julie Lundquist) <atoc-students at lists.colorado.edu>;
atoc-faculty (Alexandra Jahn) <atoc-faculty at lists.colorado.edu>;
atoc-researchers (Kelly Duong) <atoc-researchers at lists.colorado.edu>;
atoc-colloquium at lists.colorado.edu <atoc-colloquium at lists.colorado.edu>
*Cc:* Monica Morrison <monicamo at ucar.edu>
*Subject:* ATOC Colloquium: Fri. Nov. 11 @ 11am – Erin Guderian, Tim
Higgins, and Monica Morrison (SEEC S228 and Zoom)
Hi everyone,
The final ATOC Colloquium of the fall semester will be held in a hybrid
format on *Friday, November 11 from 11a–12p MT over Zoom and in SEEC
S228. *This
week's colloquium will feature a trio of conference-length presentations
from *ATOC graduate students, Erin Guderian and Tim Higgins, as well as
NCAR ASP Postdoctoral Scholar, Monica Morrison*. The zoom login information
and abstract for each talk are provided below. Please join us for coffee
and conversation beginning at 10:45am MT, and stay afterwards for a lunch
catered by Illegal Pete's.
Please let us know if you have any questions or are interested in
delivering a talk at a future colloquium. A full schedule of ATOC colloquia
can be found at https://www.colorado.edu/atoc/colloquium.
We look forward to seeing you on Friday!
-The ATOC Colloquium Committee
_________________________________________________
*An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcing on
Extreme Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast*
Tim Higgins (ATOC)
Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change on extreme atmospheric
river and precipitation activity on the US west coast continues to exist.
In this work, we identify the main contributors to the changes in extreme
precipitation and atmospheric river activity over the US west coast in
addition to quantifying the trends in future AR events using a unique
high-resolution climate model run at unprecedented ensemble size. Data
computed from the Weather at Home regional climate modeling project will be
analyzed. Weather at Home is unique because it uses computing power from
volunteers’ computers to run regional climate simulations. This will be
the first Weather at Home project to examine eastern Pacific ARs and
precipitation. This analysis will include boreal winter AR events with
historical forcings from the early 21st century as well as future forcing
relevant to 1.5°C and 2° warming using output from HadAM4.
*Investigating the Relative Forcing of Tropical Ocean SST on Asian Monsoon
Precipitation using LIM *
* Erin Guderian (ATOC) *
*The Asian monsoon provides essential precipitation to one of the most
densely populated regions in the world. While the influence from ENSO and
other modes of climate variability on Asian monsoon precipitation have been
thoroughly investigated, the individual contributions from basin-wide sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies has not been fully addressed. In this
study, a linear inverse model (LIM) is applied to the leading principal
components of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST and precipitation
anomalies over Southern Asia in order to isolate the effects of SST forcing
on the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. Specifically, we will
investigate how the direct forcing from the Pacific Ocean, the direct
forcing from the Indian Ocean, and the Indo-Pacific interactions contribute
to the leading modes of precipitation variability over India. *
*The Logic of Actionable Science: Earth System Model Inadequacies and
Epistemic Risk *
Monica Morrison (NCAR ASP)
Scientific models, including Global Climate models (GCMs) and Earth System
models (ESMs), are constructed with particular purposes in mind. As a
consequence, the decisions made about what features to represent within the
target system, and how to represent these features, are a function of these
purposes. When a model is repurposed, there is a risk that the
representational decisions made through the course of construction are
inadequate for these new purposes. In the context of actionable science—the
generation of scientific knowledge for use in societal decision making,
e.g., how to adapt and develop resilience to climate change—the risk of
inadequacies in the representational content of models carries with it the
possibility of harm—e.g. maladaptation to climate change or the misuse of
limited resources. Evaluations of a model's data output is not enough to
reliably assess these risks, as there are many cases in which models get
good answers for bad reasons. Therefore, we need to rethink our standard
practices for evaluating models and how we communicate their usefulness as
GCMs/ESMs are increasingly purposed to answer actionable science questions.
__________________________________________________
*Zoom login Information:*
*Topic: ATOC Colloquium*
*Time: Friday, Nov. 11 at 11am MT*
*Join Zoom Meeting*
*https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945
<https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945>*
*Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945 *
*Passcode: ATOC*
One tap mobile
+17193594580,,97845417945# US
+16699006833,,97845417945# US (San Jose)
Dial by your location
+1 719 359 4580 US
+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)
+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)
+1 669 444 9171 US
+1 646 558 8656 US (New York)
+1 646 931 3860 US
+1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC)
+1 309 205 3325 US
+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)
+1 386 347 5053 US
+1 564 217 2000 US
Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945
Find your local number: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV
Join by SIP
97845417945 at zoomcrc.com
Join by H.323
162.255.37.11 (US West)
162.255.36.11 (US East)
115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai)
115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad)
213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands)
213.244.140.110 (Germany)
103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney)
103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne)
149.137.40.110 (Singapore)
64.211.144.160 (Brazil)
149.137.68.253 (Mexico)
69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto)
65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver)
207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo)
149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka)
Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945
Passcode: 432312
_______________________________________________________
*Andrew C. Winters*
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)
University of Colorado Boulder
311 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0311
Office: SEEC C277 || Phone: 303-735-5775
https://acwinters.weebly.com || @acwinters_wx || he/him/his
*CU Boulder acknowledges that it is located on the traditional territories
and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native
American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused
devastating and lasting impacts. Full CU Boulder land acknowledgment
<https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement> *
--
Scott Briggs
(he/him)
Administrator
Advanced Study Program
Education, Engagement and Early-Career Development
National Center For Atmospheric Research
*phone: 303.497.1607*
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