<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">FYI</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">atoc-colloquium (Andrew Winters)</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a>></span><br>Date: Thu, Nov 10, 2022 at 8:18 AM<br>Subject: Re: ATOC Colloquium: Fri. Nov. 11 @ 11am – Erin Guderian, Tim Higgins, and Monica Morrison (SEEC S228 and Zoom)<br>To: <a href="mailto:Atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu">Atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu">Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, atoc-students (Julie Lundquist) <<a href="mailto:atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, atoc-faculty (Alexandra Jahn) <<a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, atoc-researchers (Kelly Duong) <<a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a>><br>Cc: Monica Morrison <<a href="mailto:monicamo@ucar.edu">monicamo@ucar.edu</a>><br></div><br><br><div class="msg-3402281904151461514">
<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<div style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">Hi everyone,</span>
<div style="margin:0px;color:black"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;color:black">A<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">reminder</span><span style="margin:0px"> </span>that
we will hold the final ATOC<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium of the semester</span></span> on<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Friday,
November 11 at 11am MT over Zoom and in SEEC S228</b>.<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">This week's </span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium</span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> will<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">a
trio of conference-length presentations from<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><b style="background-color:white;color:black">ATOC graduate students, Erin Guderian and Tim Higgins, as well as NCAR ASP Postdoctoral
Scholar, Monica Morrison</b><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">.</span><b style="background-color:white;color:black"> <span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">The
zoom login information and abstracts for each talk</span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> are provided below. Please join us for coffee and conversation beginning at 10:45am MT and stay afterwards for
a lunch catered by Illegal Pete's.</span></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px;color:black"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;color:black">We look forward to seeing you tomorrow!</div>
<div style="margin:0px;color:black"><br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">-The
ATOC<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><span style="margin:0px;color:black"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"> </span>Committee</span></span></span></span><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><br>
</span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px">_________________________________________________</span>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b>An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcing on Extreme Atmospheric
Rivers on the US West Coast</b></span></b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Tim Higgins (ATOC)</span><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><br>
</b></span></b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></span>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></div>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><br>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;color:black">Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change on extreme atmospheric river and precipitation activity on the US west coast continues to exist. In this work, we identify
the main contributors to the changes in extreme precipitation and atmospheric river activity over the US west coast in addition to quantifying the trends in future AR events using a unique high-resolution climate model run at unprecedented ensemble size. Data
computed from the Weather@Home regional climate modeling project will be analyzed. Weather@Home is unique because it uses computing power from volunteers’ computers to run regional climate simulations. This will be the first Weather@Home project to examine
eastern Pacific ARs and precipitation. This analysis will include boreal winter AR events with historical forcings from the early 21st century as well as future forcing relevant to 1.5°C and 2° warming using output from HadAM4.<br>
<br>
</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b>Investigating the Relative Forcing of Tropical Ocean SST on Asian Monsoon Precipitation using LIM<br>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black">
Erin Guderian (ATOC)</div>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><br>
</div>
<span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></span>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></div>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">The Asian monsoon provides essential precipitation to one of the most densely populated regions in the world. While the influence
from ENSO and other modes of climate variability on Asian monsoon precipitation have been thoroughly investigated, the individual contributions from basin-wide sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies has not been fully addressed. In this study, a linear inverse
model (LIM) is applied to the leading principal components of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST and precipitation anomalies over Southern Asia in order to isolate the effects of SST forcing on the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. Specifically,
we will investigate how the direct forcing from the Pacific Ocean, the direct forcing from the Indian Ocean, and the Indo-Pacific interactions contribute to the leading modes of precipitation variability over India.<br>
</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><br>
</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>The Logic of Actionable Science: Earth System Model Inadequacies and Epistemic Risk<br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px">Monica Morrison (NCAR ASP)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Scientific models, including Global Climate models (GCMs) and Earth System models (ESMs), are constructed with particular purposes in mind. As a consequence, the decisions made about what features to represent
within the target system, and how to represent these features, are a function of these purposes. When a model is repurposed, there is a risk that the representational decisions made through the course of construction are inadequate for these new purposes.
In the context of actionable science—the generation of scientific knowledge for use in societal decision making, e.g., how to adapt and develop resilience to climate change—the risk of inadequacies in the representational content of models carries with it
the possibility of harm—e.g. maladaptation to climate change or the misuse of limited resources. Evaluations of a model's data output is not enough to reliably assess these risks, as there are many cases in which models get good answers for bad reasons. Therefore,
we need to rethink our standard practices for evaluating models and how we communicate their usefulness as GCMs/ESMs are increasingly purposed to answer actionable science questions.</div>
<div style="margin:0px"></div>
<br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">__________________________________________________</span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><br>
</span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><u>Zoom login Information:</u></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><b>Topic:<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span><span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span></b>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Time: Friday, Nov. 11 at 11am MT</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Join Zoom Meeting</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin:0px" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945</a></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945<br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Passcode:<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">One tap mobile</div>
<div style="margin:0px">+17193594580,,97845417945# US</div>
<div style="margin:0px">+16699006833,,97845417945# US (San Jose)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Dial by your location</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 719 359 4580 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 669 444 9171 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 646 558 8656 US (New York)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 646 931 3860 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 309 205 3325 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 386 347 5053 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 564 217 2000 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Find your local number: <a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV</a></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Join by SIP</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><a href="mailto:97845417945@zoomcrc.com" target="_blank">97845417945@zoomcrc.com</a></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Join by H.323</div>
<div style="margin:0px">162.255.37.11 (US West)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">162.255.36.11 (US East)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">213.244.140.110 (Germany)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.40.110 (Singapore)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">64.211.144.160 (Brazil)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.68.253 (Mexico)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945</div>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px">Passcode: 432312</span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</span></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">
<br>
</div>
<div id="m_-3402281904151461514Signature">
<div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">_______________________________________________________</span></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"></span><br>
</div>
<span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"><b>Andrew C. Winters</b></span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Assistant Professor</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">University of Colorado Boulder</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">311 UCB</span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black">, Boulder,
CO 80309-0311</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Office: SEEC C277 || </span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black">Phone:
303-735-5775</span></div>
<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"></span><a href="https://acwinters.weebly.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin:0px" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">https://acwinters.weebly.com</span></a><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black"> ||
@acwinters_wx || he/him/his</span></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<font face="Calibri Light,Helvetica Light,sans-serif"><br>
</font></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<font face="Calibri Light,Helvetica Light,sans-serif"><i><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white">CU Boulder acknowledges
that it is located on the traditional territories and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused devastating and lasting impacts.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(2,119,189);background-color:white" target="_blank">Full
CU Boulder land acknowledgment</a><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white"> </span></i></font></div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="m_-3402281904151461514appendonsend"></div>
<hr style="display:inline-block;width:98%">
<div id="m_-3402281904151461514divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Andrew Winters<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, November 7, 2022 3:13 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:Atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">Atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>; atoc-students (Julie Lundquist) <<a href="mailto:atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu</a>>; atoc-faculty (Alexandra Jahn) <<a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu</a>>;
atoc-researchers (Kelly Duong) <<a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Monica Morrison <<a href="mailto:monicamo@ucar.edu" target="_blank">monicamo@ucar.edu</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> ATOC Colloquium: Fri. Nov. 11 @ 11am – Erin Guderian, Tim Higgins, and Monica Morrison (SEEC S228 and Zoom)</font>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px">Hi
everyone,<br>
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<div style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:white">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"></span>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"></span>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white">
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">The final <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span></span> <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium
of the fall semester</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> will be held in a hybrid format on<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Friday, November 11 from 11a–12p MT over Zoom and in SEEC S228.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></b>This
week's <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium</span></span></span></span> will feature<span style="margin:0px"> a
trio of conference-length presentations from<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>ATOC graduate students, Erin Guderian and Tim Higgins, as well as NCAR ASP Postdoctoral Scholar, Monica Morrison</b></span>. The
zoom login information and abstract for each talk are provided below. Please join us for coffee and conversation beginning at 10:45am MT, and stay afterwards for a lunch catered by Illegal Pete's.</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><b><b></b></b></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">Please let us know if you have any questions or are interested in delivering a talk at a future</span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">colloquium</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">. </span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">A
full schedule of</span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">colloquia
can be found at</span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/atoc/colloquium" style="margin:0px;background-color:white" target="_blank"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">https://www.colorado.edu/</span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">atoc</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">/</span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">colloquium</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">. </span></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">We look forward to seeing you on Friday!</span><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">-The</span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">Colloquium</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"> </span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">Committee</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">
<span style="margin:0px">_________________________________________________</span>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b>An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcing on Extreme Atmospheric
Rivers on the US West Coast</b></span></b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Tim Higgins (ATOC)</span><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><br>
</b></span></b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></span>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></div>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b><br>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;color:black">Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change on extreme atmospheric river and precipitation activity on the US west coast continues to exist. In this work, we identify
the main contributors to the changes in extreme precipitation and atmospheric river activity over the US west coast in addition to quantifying the trends in future AR events using a unique high-resolution climate model run at unprecedented ensemble size. Data
computed from the Weather@Home regional climate modeling project will be analyzed. Weather@Home is unique because it uses computing power from volunteers’ computers to run regional climate simulations. This will be the first Weather@Home project to examine
eastern Pacific ARs and precipitation. This analysis will include boreal winter AR events with historical forcings from the early 21st century as well as future forcing relevant to 1.5°C and 2° warming using output from HadAM4.
<br>
<br>
</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><b>Investigating the Relative Forcing of Tropical Ocean SST on Asian Monsoon Precipitation using LIM<br>
</b></span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black">Erin Guderian (ATOC)</div>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"><br>
</div>
<span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></span>
<div style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;color:black"></div>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black">The Asian monsoon provides essential precipitation to one of the most densely populated regions in the world. While the influence
from ENSO and other modes of climate variability on Asian monsoon precipitation have been thoroughly investigated, the individual contributions from basin-wide sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies has not been fully addressed. In this study, a linear inverse
model (LIM) is applied to the leading principal components of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST and precipitation anomalies over Southern Asia in order to isolate the effects of SST forcing on the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. Specifically,
we will investigate how the direct forcing from the Pacific Ocean, the direct forcing from the Indian Ocean, and the Indo-Pacific interactions contribute to the leading modes of precipitation variability over India.
<br>
</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><span style="font-weight:400;margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><br>
</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>The Logic of Actionable Science: Earth System Model Inadequacies and Epistemic Risk<br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px">Monica Morrison (NCAR ASP)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Scientific models, including Global Climate models (GCMs) and Earth System models (ESMs), are constructed with particular purposes in mind. As a consequence, the decisions made about what features to represent within the target system,
and how to represent these features, are a function of these purposes. When a model is repurposed, there is a risk that the representational decisions made through the course of construction are inadequate for these new purposes. In the context of actionable
science—the generation of scientific knowledge for use in societal decision making, e.g., how to adapt and develop resilience to climate change—the risk of inadequacies in the representational content of models carries with it the possibility of harm—e.g.
maladaptation to climate change or the misuse of limited resources. Evaluations of a model's data output is not enough to reliably assess these risks, as there are many cases in which models get good answers for bad reasons. Therefore, we need to rethink our
standard practices for evaluating models and how we communicate their usefulness as GCMs/ESMs are increasingly purposed to answer actionable science questions.
</div>
<div style="margin:0px"></div>
<br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">__________________________________________________</span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><br>
</span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><u>Zoom login Information:</u></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white;color:black"><b>Topic:<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span><span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span></b>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Time: Friday, Nov. 11 at 11am MT</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Join Zoom Meeting</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b><a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945" style="margin:0px" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/97845417945</a></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945<br>
</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Passcode:<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></b></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">One tap mobile</div>
<div style="margin:0px">+17193594580,,97845417945# US</div>
<div style="margin:0px">+16699006833,,97845417945# US (San Jose)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Dial by your location</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 719 359 4580 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 669 444 9171 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 646 558 8656 US (New York)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 646 931 3860 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 309 205 3325 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 386 347 5053 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px"> +1 564 217 2000 US</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Find your local number: <a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/acegj8GnMV</a></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Join by SIP</div>
<div style="margin:0px"><a href="mailto:97845417945@zoomcrc.com" target="_blank">97845417945@zoomcrc.com</a></div>
<div style="margin:0px"><br>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Join by H.323</div>
<div style="margin:0px">162.255.37.11 (US West)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">162.255.36.11 (US East)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">213.244.140.110 (Germany)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.40.110 (Singapore)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">64.211.144.160 (Brazil)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.68.253 (Mexico)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka)</div>
<div style="margin:0px">Meeting ID: 978 4541 7945</div>
<span style="margin:0px">Passcode: 432312</span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"></span><br>
</div>
<div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">
<br>
</div>
<div id="m_-3402281904151461514x_Signature">
<div>
<div style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">_______________________________________________________</span></span><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"></span><br>
</div>
<span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"><b>Andrew C. Winters</b></span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Assistant Professor</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">University of Colorado Boulder</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">311 UCB</span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black">, Boulder, CO
80309-0311</span></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Office: SEEC C277 || </span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black">Phone:
303-735-5775</span></div>
<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"></span><a href="https://acwinters.weebly.com/" style="margin:0px" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">https://acwinters.weebly.com</span></a><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px;color:black"> ||
@acwinters_wx || he/him/his</span></span><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;text-align:start;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<font face="Calibri Light,Helvetica Light,sans-serif"><br>
</font></div>
<div style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<font face="Calibri Light,Helvetica Light,sans-serif"><i><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white">CU Boulder acknowledges that
it is located on the traditional territories and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused devastating and lasting impacts.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement" style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(2,119,189);background-color:white" target="_blank">Full
CU Boulder land acknowledgment</a><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white"> </span></i></font></div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Scott Briggs</span><br></font></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><font color="#000000">(he/him)</font></span></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000">Administrator</font></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000"><br></font></div><div dir="ltr"><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000">Advanced Study Program<br>Education, Engagement and Early-Career Development<br>National Center For Atmospheric Research</font></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" size="1" color="#000000"><i style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">phone: 303.497.1607</i></font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>