CEDAR email: Call for abstracts: SA005 - All models are wrong but some are useful – a famous quote from George Box. Does this apply to modeling the space environment?

[Cheryl Huang]

We call for contributions to our session on space environment modeling. We
are trying something different this year. We have an invited panel of 6
distinguished speakers who will discuss the topic (see below), followed by
a Q&A session with all attendees. Please join us as we discuss the problems
in space environment modeling.

We also welcome contributed papers to the session. We want your opinions
and suggestions for improved modeling. Link to the session and
abstract submission is
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/prelim.cgi/Session/104623

Thank you,
Cheryl Huang and Tony Mannucci

Topic: Our provocative title outlines the challenge of space environment
modeling, specifically the challenge of producing robust models capable of
operational specification and forecast of the ionosphere and thermosphere
under conditions of solar wind forcing. Current physics-based approaches
are not capable of forecasting environmental conditions with sufficient
precision to meet operational requirements. Quoting Box again, “Since all
models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong.
It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers
abroad.” [Box, JASA, 1976]’

This topic solicits diverse opinions and research results on the current
and future status of space environment modeling, operational requirements,
the challenges in meeting those requirements, whether our efforts should be
directed toward incremental or disruptive approaches, and innovative
methodologies and observations that can be “useful” in advancing
capabilities. We solicit contributions on all aspects of the environment,
including the sun, heliosphere,magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere.
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