[Oppslist] submission for oppslist

[Elizabeth Cassano]

Good day,

Below the signature in this email is a submission for the Opportunities
outside UCAR list. It is an announcement for a seminar that will be offered
in the spring at the University of Colorado. Thank you.

Kind regards,

Elizabeth Cassano
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CIRES
216 UCB
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO. 80309-0216
phone: 303-735-5808
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CONTEXT & CLIMATE CHANGE
PSCI 5108 & ATOC 7500

Spring 2004, Thursdays, 3:30 to 6:00 PM, in Ketchum 116

Co-Teachers:  Ron Brunner & Manda Lynch


	This is a capstone seminar for the Environmental Policy
Certificate Program.  The purpose of this seminar is to advance science,
policy, and governance for adaptations to climate change and variability.
It is part of an interdisciplinary research project now in its third year
at CU, an integrated assessment of climate change and variability on the
North Slope coastal region of Alaska.  The project is supported by a
five-year grant from the National Science Foundation.

	Part I of the seminar provides an introduction to the conventional
framing of the climate change adaptation problem, based on the IPCC's
Third Assessment Report and related documents.  The dominant conventional
framing is global, from the top down, but there have some recent
departures.

	Part II develops the local framing of the adaptation problem in
much greater detail, based on the project's work in Barrow, Alaska and
elsewhere on the North Slope, where the reality of climate change is not
an issue.  The scientific work is organized around major factors that
contribute to Barrow's vulnerability:

- Changes in major cyclones that track near Barrow, including their
distance, frequency, intensity, and the speed, direction, and duration of
winds at Barrow.

- Changes in sea-ice concentrations and locations that interact with
cyclones and coastal geography and geology to erode the coast line and
flood low-lying areas.

- Changes in people, property, and other things of value exposed to
coastal erosion and flooding, and human actions modifying the physical
environment or adapting to it.

The policy work focuses on alternatives to expand the range of informed
choices beyond the beach nourishment and armoring alternatives now under
consideration by the Army Corps of Engineers and the North Slope Borough.
Others alternatives include the design and location of new facilities,
rollback of the town at a pace and places determined by nature,
retrofitting the utility corridor, and increasing warning times for major
storms.

	Integrating the first two parts of the seminar, Part III will
consider the proposition that context matters - that many physical and
social factors interact uniquely to shape the vulnerability of Barrow and
other communities, and must be taken into account for rational and
politically-feasible adaptations to climate change and variability.
Seminar members explore will explore the implications for advances in
climate change science, policy, and governance, taking the conventional
global framing as the baseline.
	The requirements include participation in seminar meetings,
participation in some discussion groups to be organized on the seminar's
website, and a term project.  Students from a range of disciplines will
have opportunities to apply their distinctive knowledge and skills to
contribute to on-going research.  Consider a list of possible term
projects:

- Developing a Storm Data System incorporating existing and new data, and
continuous updates of any variables relevant to clarifying Barrow's
vulnerabilities.
- Projections:  How should data from each additional major storm affect
probabilities relevant to planning for future storms?  Bayesian statistics
are relevant here.
- Developing an Early Warning System as a refinement of an existing
cluster analysis, in collaboration with weather service personnel in
Barrow and Fairbanks.
- Measuring beach erosion, an extension of existing photometric analyses
of 1948 and 1997 aerial photos to interim years, and of existing GIS
observations in Barrow.
- New Hospital Location:  Which of the top three sites under consideration
in Barrow would minimize vulnerability to flooding and waves?  This is
also a federal concern.
- Improving Emergency Management by "experimenting" with differences in
temporary berms, their locations, and other measures along the shoreline.
- Improving Emergency Preparations:  What redundancies are available for
water supplies, power, and other essential services.  How can restoration
times be reduced?
- Planning and Zoning to rollback Barrow at a pace and places determined
by future storms, involving planning regulations, ownership patterns, and
other factors.
- Examining Partial Precedents for managing natural hazards and disasters,
rollback, and other strategies for adaptation to climate change and
variability in Barrow.
- Retrofitting the utility corridor ("Utilidor"):  What can be done to
maintain service and limit damage if a coastal lift station is destroyed
or flooded by a major storm?
- Finances constrain the North Slope Borough's capacity to adapt. Property
tax revenues from Prudhoe Bay are declining, but alternatives are being
considered.
- Historical Context:  Consolidate what is known about the pre-1945
history of Barrow, including climate, erosion and flooding, human
settlement patterns, and the like.
Seminar members will have access to research materials to get started
quickly on term projects like these, as well as access to advice from
faculty and professional researchers involved in the NSF project, who will
make guest presentations in the seminar.

	For more information on the seminar, please contact the
co-teachers at ronald.brunner@colorado.edu or manda@cires.colorado.edu.