[Narccap-topic-extremes] NARCCAP Extremes - What are you doing?

Mon Aug 8 09:42:41 MDT 2011

Hello everyone,
We are using NARCCAP to look at extreme events over the Western US using a
peaks over a threshold approach. We compare to NARR data (it assimilates
precipitation).
Francina

On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 2:21 PM, Brian Reich <brian_reich at ncsu.edu> wrote:

>
> Hello everybody,
>
> It has been very interesting learning about your research.  I am
> interested in developing new statistical methods for extremes.  In
> particular, I am studying new models for
>
>   (1) Statistical downscaling of extremes
>   (2) Bayesian spatial models for extremes
>   (3) Statistical models of heat waves
>
> I look forward to learning about other statistical challenges you all
> encounter through this mailing list, and welcome future collaboration.
>
> Thanks,
> Brian
>
>
> On 8/5/2011 3:32 PM, Grant Weller wrote:
> > Hello all, and thanks for the posts thus far.
> >
> > I have been using a multivariate extremes approach to study the pineapple
> express (PE) phenomenon on the west coast of the US.  I have defined a daily
> precipitation quantity from the west coast region which is believed to
> capture extreme precipitation from PE events, and modeled the extremal
> dependence (between RCM output and observations) in this daily quantity as
> extracted from each of the six NARCCAP models driven by NCEP reanalysis, and
> the Maurer gridded observational precipitation data.
> >
> > Furthermore, I've found that not all extreme precipitation events in the
> west coast region of the US are associated with PE events, and so I've been
> working on developing a "pineapple express index" from large-scale
> atmospheric processes which shows tail dependence to observed precipitation.
>  The main goal is to be able to use future values of this index and future
> RCM output to describe extreme precipitation from pineapple express events
> under climate change.
> >
> > This is joint work with Dan Cooley (CSU Department of Statistics).  I've
> also been funded for this work during the summer by the GSP group at IMAGe
> at NCAR, and Steve Sain will likely be a co-author on a resulting
> publication.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Grant
> >
> > Grant Weller
> > Department of Statistics
> > Colorado State University
> > gbweller at cord.edu
> >
> > On Aug 5, 2011, at 12:00 PM, Reza Najafi wrote:
> >
> >> Hi Bill and thank you for the posts.
> >>
> >> Using NARCCAP data I intend to generate streamflow and work on the
> extremes
> >> based on EVT. Now the important part is how to model
> dependency(spatially
> >> and temporally) in the extremes. I'd be glad to exchange ideas with
> >> everybody and I am still in the early stage of the work with no
> publication
> >> from it. I wasn't sure if I should have simply replied to from the email
> or
> >> ... is it the way we are going to discuss for future?
> >>
> >> Thank you
> >>
> >> Reza
> >> --
> >> Mohammad Reza Najafi
> >> Portland State University
> >> Civil and Environmental Engineering
> >> P.O. Box 751
> >> Portland, OR 97207-0751
> >> tel: (503) 810-3098
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 9:51 AM, Hess, Jeremy<jhess at emory.edu>  wrote:
> >>
> >>> Thanks Bill.
> >>>
> >>> I'm doing some work at CDC on extreme heat events looking
> retrospectively
> >>> at a dataset abstracted out from NCDC's data for approximately 100
> cities
> >>> across the US, extrapolating out temperature trends and projecting them
> >>> forward, and then generating scenarios of extreme heat events for
> >>> preparedness planning.  It's intentionally relatively low tech, though
> we
> >>> will be using some novel approaches based on extreme value theory to
> >>> generate the estimates of extremes from the projected point estimates.
>  If
> >>> anyone has expertise in this area I would love to touch base.  We will
> also
> >>> be comparing our (low-tech) estimates with regional downscaled
> projections
> >>> for extreme heat events, and I'd like to talk with anyone doing that,
> as
> >>> well.
> >>>
> >>> Thanks,
> >>>
> >>> Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH
> >>> Senior Medical Advisor, Climate and Health Program, DEHHE, NCEH, CDC
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: narccap-topic-extremes-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu [mailto:
> >>> narccap-topic-extremes-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu] On Behalf Of
> Gutowski,
> >>> William J [GE AT]
> >>> Sent: Friday, August 05, 2011 7:17 AM
> >>> To: narccap-topic-extremes at mailman.ucar.edu
> >>> Subject: [Narccap-topic-extremes] NARCCAP Extremes - What are you
> doing?
> >>>
> >>> Dear NARCCAP "Extremers":
> >>> It would also be good to get an overview list for our pod of what
> people
> >>> are doing with extremes.  If you are simply interested in the topic,
> and
> >>> just want to follow discussions, that's fine.  However, for those of
> you
> >>> doing research with extremes, let's see what we all are doing.  So -
> what is
> >>> your extremes-related research?
> >>> Here at Iowa State, we have been looking primarily at daily
> precipitation
> >>> extremes and the causal processes in both observations and the NARCCAP
> (and
> >>> other simulations).  We have also looked at monthly precipitation
> extremes
> >>> in the NARCCAP simulations and, in other work, are looking at daily
> >>> temperature extremes.
> >>>
> >>> Bill Gutowski
> >>>
> >>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >>> William J. Gutowski, Jr.
> >>> 3021 Agronomy Hall
> >>> Dept. of Geological and
> >>> Atmospheric Sciences
> >>> Iowa State University
> >>> Dept. of Agronomy
> >>> Ames, Iowa  50011-1010
> >>>
> >>> gutowski at iastate.edu
> >>> Tel:1-515-294-5632
> >>> Fax:1-515-294-2619
> >>> http://www.ge-at.iastate.edu/
> >>> http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
> >>> _______________________________________________
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> >>> Narccap-topic-extremes at mailman.ucar.edu
> >>> http://mailman.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/narccap-topic-extremes
> >>>
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> >>>
> >>> --
> >>> Mohammad Reza Najafi
> >>> PhD Candidate
> >>> Portland State University
> >>> Civil and Environmental Engineering
> >>> P.O. Box 751
> >>> Portland, OR 97207-0751
> >>> tel: (503) 810-3098
> >>>
> >>> <http://mailman.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/narccap-topic-extremes>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >> _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
> >
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-- 
Francina Dominguez
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
University of Arizona