[Grad-postdoc-assn] ASP Seminar TODAY

Mike Waite waite at ucar.edu
Wed Dec 6 08:22:42 MST 2006

Hello all: please plan to attend the seminar and the lunchh
afterwards.  It should be a good one.
- ASP Seminar Team (Feng, Kelley, Mike, Peter)

Today, 11:00 am, Mesa Lab Main Seminar Room
(Refreshments from 10:30; lunch with speaker to follow)

Speaker: Joe Tribbia (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR)

Title: Uncertainty Quantification, Predictability and Stochastic


This seminar will review a number of areas of current research 
from the perspective of Uncertainty Quantification, which has been 
one of the primary motivation for my interest in these areas. The 
talk will progress through efforts to predict the predictability of 
weather forecasts using ensemble methods. Techniques developed 
there have led to questions concerning the impact of observing 
strategies and data assimilation on weather prediction and 
predictability. Observing strategy questions have led to further 
concerns regarding the nature of spatial scale interactions and the 
contamination of large, well-observed scales by the less-well 
observed meso and convective scales. The nature of scale 
interaction and questions of prediction of uncertainty lead naturally 
to the concern for quantifying the uncertainty associated with 
parameterized physical processes in models. I will describe some 
recent efforts aimed at moving beyond the historical focus in 
parameterization, the mean tendency due to the convergence of 
rectified unresolved fluxes and examine the need for a broader 
approach based on scaling. 

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