[Wrf-users] Session at the AMS 99th Annual Meeting

[James Done]

All,

I'm pleased to announce an exciting session at the the American
Meteorological Society’s 99th Annual Meeting
<https://annual.ametsoc.org/2019/>, 6-10 January, 2019 in Phoenix, AZ.

Please consider submitting an abstract here
<https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/webprogrampreliminary/Session47827.html>.
The deadline for all submissions is *Wednesday, 1 August 23:59 EDT.*

*Session Topic Title:* Understanding the Mechanisms, Predictability and
Impacts of Connected Mesoscale Extremes
*Conference: *Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes:
Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
*Conveners:*
James Done, NCAR, MMM / Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes,
Boulder, CO;
Cindy L. Bruyère, NCAR, MMM / Capacity Center for Climate and Weather
Extremes, Boulder, CO;
Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., MEAS, Raleigh, NC
Prasad Gunturi, Willis Re Inc., Catastrophe Management Services,
Minneapolis, MN

*Description:* In the lead up to a mesoscale extreme event much attention
is focused on the latest predictions and emergency preparations. Yet, such
an extreme event may be linked to another high-impact event, either in a
causal chain or through large-scale influences. Understanding these
connections has the potential to improve predictions of, and responses to,
mesoscale extreme events.

Connections among mesoscale extremes are multi-scale, from short-timescale
cold-pool outflows triggering neighboring convection to decadal variability
of the global circulation that favors concurrent and distant extremes.
Tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, for example, can exhibit temporal
clustering and tropical convection can trigger a global response through
Rossby wave trains. Connections can also lead to multihazard events such as
the Thomas fire in California enhancing mud-slide and flash flood risk. The
full range of physical mechanisms that connect mesoscale extremes and the
strength of the connections is only beginning to be explored and may
include multi-scale wave dynamics, coupled Earth system processes, and
persistence of anomalies from days to decades.
Connected mesoscale extremes and their impacts present a challenge and an
opportunity for disaster mitigation and risk management. Reinsurance, for
example, is based on the premise of independent extremes. This premise is
challenged by our new understanding of connected hazards and due to our
increasingly connected society in which impacts from an extreme event may
change our exposure and vulnerability in ways that change the likelihood of
another high-impact event. For example, the 2012 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest
derecho knocked out power to millions, thus exposing many more people to
heat risk. Accounting for this connectivity presents opportunities to
develop robust disaster mitigation and risk management practices.

This session explores how scientists and risk management experts
conceptualize connected mesoscale extremes and impacts. We welcome
presentations that explore dynamical and statistical insights into
connected mesoscale extremes and impacts, developing statistical and
dynamical prediction systems for connected mesoscale extremes and impacts,
and challenges and potential solutions to connected events for risk
management.

Regards,
James Done


-- 
Project Scientist III
National Center for Atmospheric Research
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.ucar.edu/pipermail/wrf-users/attachments/20180613/42ae773e/attachment.html>