<div dir="ltr">All,<br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div><div><br></div><div>I'm pleased to announce an exciting session at the <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%">the <a href="https://annual.ametsoc.org/2019/" target="_blank">American Meteorological Society’s 99<sup>th</sup> Annual Meeting</a>, 6-10 January, 2019 in Phoenix, AZ.<br></span><br><div>Please consider submitting an abstract <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%"> <a href="https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/webprogrampreliminary/Session47827.html" target="_blank">here</a>. The deadline for all submissions is <b>Wednesday, 1 August 23:59 EDT.</b></span></div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%"><br> <b>Session Topic Title:</b> <span>Understanding the Mechanisms, Predictability and Impacts of Connected Mesoscale Extremes</span>
<br> <b>Conference: </b>Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection</span></span><br><div class="m_-4009720364801098174gmail-topdisplay_group">
<div class="m_-4009720364801098174gmail-topdisplay_role"><b>Conveners:</b><br></div>
<div class="m_-4009720364801098174gmail-topdisplay_people">James Done, NCAR, MMM / Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, Boulder, CO; <br>Cindy L. Bruyère, NCAR, MMM / Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, Boulder, CO; <br>Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., MEAS, Raleigh, NC<br>Prasad Gunturi, Willis Re Inc., Catastrophe Management Services, Minneapolis, MN</div>
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<p><b>Description:</b> In the lead up to a mesoscale extreme event much attention is
focused on the latest predictions and emergency preparations. Yet, such
an extreme event may be linked to another high-impact event, either in a
causal chain or through large-scale influences. Understanding these
connections has the potential to improve predictions of, and responses
to, mesoscale extreme events.<br></p><p>Connections among mesoscale extremes are multi-scale, from
short-timescale cold-pool outflows triggering neighboring convection to
decadal variability of the global circulation that favors concurrent and
distant extremes. Tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, for example,
can exhibit temporal clustering and tropical convection can trigger a
global response through Rossby wave trains. Connections can also lead to
multihazard events such as the Thomas fire in California enhancing
mud-slide and flash flood risk. The full range of physical mechanisms
that connect mesoscale extremes and the strength of the connections is
only beginning to be explored and may include multi-scale wave dynamics,
coupled Earth system processes, and persistence of anomalies from days
to decades.<br></p>Connected mesoscale extremes and their impacts present a challenge
and an opportunity for disaster mitigation and risk management.
Reinsurance, for example, is based on the premise of independent
extremes. This premise is challenged by our new understanding of
connected hazards and due to our increasingly connected society in which
impacts from an extreme event may change our exposure and vulnerability
in ways that change the likelihood of another high-impact event. For
example, the 2012 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho knocked out power to
millions, thus exposing many more people to heat risk. Accounting for
this connectivity presents opportunities to develop robust disaster
mitigation and risk management practices.<br><br>This session explores how scientists and risk management experts
conceptualize connected mesoscale extremes and impacts. We welcome
presentations that explore dynamical and statistical insights into
connected mesoscale extremes and impacts, developing statistical and
dynamical prediction systems for connected mesoscale extremes and
impacts, and challenges and potential solutions to connected events for
risk management.
</div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;background:rgb(255,255,255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%"><br></span></span></div>Regards,<br></div>James Done<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br><div><div><div><br clear="all"></div></div></div></font></span></div></div><br>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr">Project Scientist III<div>National Center for Atmospheric Research</div></div></div></div></div>
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