[Stoch] WWOSC session on Ensemble Prediction, Stochastic Modelling and TIGGE

[Swinbank, Richard]

Dear colleagues,

We are writing to invite you to submit abstracts for presentation in the session on "Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE" at the World Weather Open Science Conference which will be held from 16th to 21st August in Montreal, Canada.This ensemble session will be part of Theme 2 of the conference "Predictability and Dynamical/Physical/Chemical Processes," which covers knowledge of the processes that are needed to advance the seamless prediction of the earth system.

We can now announce that both Tim Palmer (University of Oxford) and Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA/MRI) have agreed to give keynote talks. A detailed description of the session is included below.

Please pass this message on to any interested colleagues

It is now two weeks to the deadline for abstract submission: 24th February 2014. Please submit your abstracts through the conference website: http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml , where more information is available.

Best wishes,

Richard Swinbank and Tom Hamill (convenors)

P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Ensemble prediction techniques have been adopted to help estimate the uncertainty in weather predictions due to the growth of initial errors (chaos) and model uncertainty.  Ensemble prediction techniques are a necessity in the medium range and also valuable for short-range forecasts of smaller-scale phenomena. Ensemble prediction requires accurate estimates of uncertainties in both the initial conditions and appropriate methods for simulating the errors that accrue due to forecast model deficiencies. The primary focus of this session is the use of stochastic and multi-model ensemble techniques to represent the model errors due to unresolved processes. Correctly representing that stochasticity is one of the major challenges facing earth system prediction.

The session will cover both idealised stochastic forcing methods and the implementation of those techniques in practical ensemble prediction systems. Studies evaluating the performance of ensemble prediction systems using results from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts or its limited-area counterpart (TIGGE-LAM) will be particularly welcome.


Dr Richard Swinbank    Manager, Ensemble Forecasting Group
Met Office   FitzRoy Road   Exeter   EX1 3PB   United Kingdom
Tel: (+44) 1392 88 6619   Fax: (+44) 1392 88 5681
E-mail: richard.swinbank at metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
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