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<p><font size="2"><font face="Arial">Dear colleagues,<br>
<br>
We are writing to invite you to submit abstracts for presentation in the session on "Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE" at the
<strong>World Weather Open Science Conference</strong> which will be held from 16th to 21st August in Montreal, Canada.This ensemble session will be part of Theme 2 of the conference “Predictability and Dynamical/Physical/Chemical Processes,” which covers knowledge
of the processes that are needed to advance the seamless prediction of the earth system.</font></font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Arial">We can now announce that both Tim Palmer (University of Oxford) and Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA/MRI) have agreed to give keynote talks. A detailed description of the session is included below.
</font></p>
<p><font size="2"><font face="Arial">Please pass this message on to any interested colleagues</font></font></p>
<div><font size="2"><font face="Arial">It is now two weeks to the deadline for abstract submission:
<strong>24th February 2014</strong>. Please submit your abstracts through the conference website:
</font><a href="http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml"><font face="Arial">http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml</font></a><font face="Arial"> , where more information is available.<br>
<br>
Best wishes,<br>
<br>
Richard Swinbank and Tom Hamill (convenors)</font></font></div>
<div><font size="2"><font face="Arial"></font></font> </div>
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<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE
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<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">Ensemble prediction techniques have been adopted to help estimate the uncertainty in weather predictions due to the growth of initial errors (chaos) and model uncertainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Ensemble prediction techniques are a necessity in the medium range and also valuable for short-range forecasts of smaller-scale phenomena. Ensemble prediction requires accurate estimates of uncertainties in both the initial conditions and appropriate
methods for simulating the errors that accrue due to forecast model deficiencies. The primary focus of this session is the use of stochastic and multi-model ensemble techniques to represent the model errors due to unresolved processes. Correctly representing
that stochasticity is one of the major challenges facing earth system prediction.</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">The session will cover both idealised stochastic forcing methods and the implementation of those techniques in practical ensemble prediction systems. Studies evaluating the
performance of ensemble prediction systems using results from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts or its limited-area counterpart (TIGGE-LAM) will be particularly welcome.
</font></p>
</div>
<div><br>
<br>
</font>Dr Richard Swinbank Manager, Ensemble Forecasting Group<br>
Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom <br>
Tel: (+44) 1392 88 6619 Fax: (+44) 1392 88 5681<br>
E-mail: richard.swinbank@metoffice.gov.uk <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/">
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/</a></font> </div>
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