[Met_help] [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] History for FSS, UFSS, AFSS

John Halley Gotway via RT met_help at ucar.edu
Tue Jul 21 13:26:06 MDT 2015


----------------------------------------------------------------
  Initial Request
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Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths  starting from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds (0.1,2.5,7.5, and so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have taken FSS column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS. I presume that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good forecast. I am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually. But it is less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of 0.1). But when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots are matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u help me.  		 	   		  

----------------------------------------------------------------
  Complete Ticket History
----------------------------------------------------------------

Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Fri May 29 16:43:33 2015

Geeta,

Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for you
yet.
I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your question to
a
scientist and statistician here.

Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.

Thanks,
John

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
wrote:

>
> Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
>        Queue: met_help
>      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
>        Owner: Nobody
>   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
>       Status: new
>  Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
>
>
> Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths
starting
> from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
(0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have taken
FSS
> column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS. I
presume
> that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
forecast. I
> am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest
> neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually. But
it is
> less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of 0.1).
But
> when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots are
> matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u
help me.
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015

Thanks John.
Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high threshold!!!!.
OK????
I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.

Geeta

> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for you
yet.
> I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your question
to a
> scientist and statistician here.
>
> Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> >        Queue: met_help
> >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> >        Owner: Nobody
> >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> >       Status: new
> >  Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> >
> > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths
starting
> > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
(0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have taken
FSS
> > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS. I
presume
> > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
forecast. I
> > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest
> > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually.
But it is
> > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
0.1). But
> > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots
are
> > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u
help me.
> >
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Tue Jun 02 00:37:41 2015

Hi John,. I have another question. Does any tool in MET 5.0 can plot
the Binary fields (OBSERVATION and FCST) for FSS depending on the
Threshold.  I have a image to see of both the fields.
I shall be waiting for your reply. Geeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Sat, 30 May 2015 15:34:33 +0530




Thanks John.
Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high threshold!!!!.
OK????
I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.

Geeta

> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for you
yet.
> I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your question
to a
> scientist and statistician here.
>
> Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> >        Queue: met_help
> >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> >        Owner: Nobody
> >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> >       Status: new
> >  Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> >
> > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths
starting
> > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
(0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have taken
FSS
> > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS. I
presume
> > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
forecast. I
> > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest
> > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually.
But it is
> > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
0.1). But
> > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots
are
> > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u
help me.
> >
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Julie Prestopnik
Time: Tue Jun 02 09:28:14 2015

Hi Geeta.  As John indicated in his email from May 29th, he is out of
town
this week.

METv5.0 has three plotting tools: plot_point_obs, plot_data_plane, and
plot_mode field

I'll provide links to their sections in the online tutorial below:
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_point_obs/index.php
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_data_plane/index.php
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_mode_field/index.php

There are also some sample R scripts for plotting referred to on this
page:
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/downloads/analysis_scripts.php

John is much more familiar with MET.  If you don't find what you're
looking
for on the above pages, John may have more resources for you when he
returns.

Thanks,
Julie

On Tue, Jun 2, 2015 at 12:37 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
wrote:

>
> <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
>
> Hi John,. I have another question. Does any tool in MET 5.0 can plot
the
> Binary fields (OBSERVATION and FCST) for FSS depending on the
Threshold.  I
> have a image to see of both the fields.
> I shall be waiting for your reply. Geeta
>
> From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> To: met_help at ucar.edu
> Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> Date: Sat, 30 May 2015 15:34:33 +0530
>
>
>
>
> Thanks John.
> Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high threshold!!!!.
OK????
> I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
>
> Geeta
>
> > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> >
> > Geeta,
> >
> > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for you
yet.
> > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your question
to a
> > scientist and statistician here.
> >
> > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > John
> >
> > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> > wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > >        Queue: met_help
> > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > >        Owner: Nobody
> > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > >       Status: new
> > >  Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths
> starting
> > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
(0.1,2.5,7.5,
> and
> > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken FSS
> > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS.
I
> presume
> > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> forecast. I
> > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest
> > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually.
But it
> is
> > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
0.1). But
> > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots
are
> > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u
help
> me.
> > >
> >
>
>


--
Julie Prestopnik
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Laboratory
Phone: 303.497.8399
Email: jpresto at ucar.edu

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Tue Jun 02 09:36:29 2015

thanks Julie.
I will wait for John to come. I m interested to know if I can plot the
BINARY field Created after using the THRESHOLD criterion.

But I also wish to know about the FSS/UFSS and AFSS.
I had sent my output of case1 to Ur Office and John said he will refer
my question to a statistician and a Scientist.
This is only for your information. Thank U so much for providing so
much help..........
Geeta

> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:28:14 -0600
>
> Hi Geeta.  As John indicated in his email from May 29th, he is out
of town
> this week.
>
> METv5.0 has three plotting tools: plot_point_obs, plot_data_plane,
and
> plot_mode field
>
> I'll provide links to their sections in the online tutorial below:
>
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_point_obs/index.php
>
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_data_plane/index.php
>
http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/support/online_tutorial/METv5.0/plot_mode_field/index.php
>
> There are also some sample R scripts for plotting referred to on
this page:
> http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/downloads/analysis_scripts.php
>
> John is much more familiar with MET.  If you don't find what you're
looking
> for on the above pages, John may have more resources for you when he
> returns.
>
> Thanks,
> Julie
>
> On Tue, Jun 2, 2015 at 12:37 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> > Hi John,. I have another question. Does any tool in MET 5.0 can
plot the
> > Binary fields (OBSERVATION and FCST) for FSS depending on the
Threshold.  I
> > have a image to see of both the fields.
> > I shall be waiting for your reply. Geeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Sat, 30 May 2015 15:34:33 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Thanks John.
> > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!. OK????
> > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you yet.
> > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question to a
> > > scientist and statistician here.
> > >
> > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >       Status: new
> > > >  Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > starting
> > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
(0.1,2.5,7.5,
> > and
> > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken FSS
> > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > presume
> > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> > forecast. I
> > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually. But it
> > is
> > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
0.1). But
> > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots are
> > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can
u help
> > me.
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
> --
> Julie Prestopnik
> National Center for Atmospheric Research
> Research Applications Laboratory
> Phone: 303.497.8399
> Email: jpresto at ucar.edu
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Tara Jensen
Time: Tue Jun 02 09:52:37 2015

Geeta,

Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the following answer:

According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS (asymptotic
FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias to
the spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared
to the frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4, and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias,
then AFSS = 1, indicating perfect skill over the domain.

I will send more information as I or others pull it together.

As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically use
ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools Julie
mentioned should also be able to read the files.

Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS, AFSS
etc.
Tara


On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> Thanks John.
> Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high threshold!!!!.
> OK????
> I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
>
> Geeta
>
> > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> >
> > Geeta,
> >
> > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for you
> yet.
> > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your question
> to a
> > scientist and statistician here.
> >
> > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > John
> >
> > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > >        Queue: met_help
> > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > >        Owner: Nobody
> > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > >       Status: new
> > >  Ticket <URL:
> https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood widths
> starting
> > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> FSS
> > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and AFSS.
I
> presume
> > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> forecast. I
> > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and lowest
> > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very gradually.
> But it is
> > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
> 0.1). But
> > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm), Plots
> are
> > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can u
> help me.
> > >
> >



------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Tue Jun 02 23:17:34 2015

thanks Tara.
Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last year
in New Delhi.
I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more detail.

See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand what
is my FSS for this case??.
U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I am
unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation) and
grid_stat output to you.

Geeta

> Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the following answer:
>
> According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS (asymptotic
FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias to
the spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared
to the frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4, and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias,
then AFSS = 1, indicating perfect skill over the domain.
>
> I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
>
> As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically
use ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie mentioned should also be able to read the files.
>
> Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS,
AFSS etc.
> Tara
>
>
> On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > Thanks John.
> > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > OK????
> > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you
> > yet.
> > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > to a
> > > scientist and statistician here.
> > >
> > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >       Status: new
> > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > starting
> > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> > FSS
> > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > presume
> > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> > forecast. I
> > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > But it is
> > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
> > 0.1). But
> > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > are
> > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can
u
> > help me.
> > > >
> > >
>
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Wed Jun 03 00:30:44 2015

Hi Tara,
I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and
ncview etc.

But a step further.
I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.

Geeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530




thanks Tara.
Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last year
in New Delhi.
I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more detail.

See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand what
is my FSS for this case??.
U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I am
unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation) and
grid_stat output to you.

Geeta

> Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the following answer:
>
> According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS (asymptotic
FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias to
the spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared
to the frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4, and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias,
then AFSS = 1, indicating perfect skill over the domain.
>
> I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
>
> As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically
use ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie mentioned should also be able to read the files.
>
> Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS,
AFSS etc.
> Tara
>
>
> On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > Thanks John.
> > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > OK????
> > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you
> > yet.
> > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > to a
> > > scientist and statistician here.
> > >
> > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >       Status: new
> > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > starting
> > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> > FSS
> > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > presume
> > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> > forecast. I
> > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > But it is
> > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
> > 0.1). But
> > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > are
> > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can
u
> > help me.
> > > >
> > >
>
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Sun Jun 07 06:24:30 2015

Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further. ThanksGeeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530




Hi Tara,
I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and
ncview etc.

But a step further.
I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.

Geeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530




thanks Tara.
Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last year
in New Delhi.
I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more detail.

See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand what
is my FSS for this case??.
U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I am
unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation) and
grid_stat output to you.

Geeta

> Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the following answer:
>
> According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS (asymptotic
FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias to
the spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared
to the frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4, and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias,
then AFSS = 1, indicating perfect skill over the domain.
>
> I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
>
> As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically
use ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie mentioned should also be able to read the files.
>
> Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS,
AFSS etc.
> Tara
>
>
> On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > Thanks John.
> > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > OK????
> > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you
> > yet.
> > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > to a
> > > scientist and statistician here.
> > >
> > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >       Status: new
> > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > starting
> > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> > FSS
> > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > presume
> > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> > forecast. I
> > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > But it is
> > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
> > 0.1). But
> > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > are
> > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can
u
> > help me.
> > > >
> > >
>
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Tue Jun 09 05:41:55 2015

Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM daily files.
hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC of 22
April 2011.
I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I plotted
data in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details about
UFSS. It is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz
UFSS=0.5+f0/2) where f0 is the observation rate.
Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.

Geeta
From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530




Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further. ThanksGeeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530




Hi Tara,
I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and
ncview etc.

But a step further.
I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.

Geeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530




thanks Tara.
Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last year
in New Delhi.
I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more detail.

See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand what
is my FSS for this case??.
U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I am
unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation) and
grid_stat output to you.

Geeta

> Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the following answer:
>
> According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS (asymptotic
FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias to
the spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared
to the frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4, and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias,
then AFSS = 1, indicating perfect skill over the domain.
>
> I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
>
> As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically
use ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie mentioned should also be able to read the files.
>
> Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS,
AFSS etc.
> Tara
>
>
> On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > Thanks John.
> > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for Lowest
> > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit confusing.
> > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > OK????
> > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you
> > yet.
> > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > to a
> > > scientist and statistician here.
> > >
> > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > >       Status: new
> > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > starting
> > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> > FSS
> > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > presume
> > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a good
> > forecast. I
> > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > But it is
> > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold of
> > 0.1). But
> > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > are
> > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.  can
u
> > help me.
> > > >
> > >
>
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Tue Jun 09 05:41:55 2015

VERSION MODEL FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG  FCST_VALID_END  OBS_LEAD
OBS_VALID_BEG   OBS_VALID_END   FCST_VAR FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_LEV
OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH
COV_THRESH   ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL     FBS FBS_BCL FBS_BCU     FSS
FSS_BCL FSS_BCU    AFSS AFSS_BCL AFSS_BCU    UFSS UFSS_BCL UFSS_BCU
F_RATE F_RATE_BCL F_RATE_BCU  O_RATE O_RATE_BCL O_RATE_BCU
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.25621      NA      NA 0.83808      NA
NA 0.99575       NA       NA 0.91382       NA       NA 0.75466
NA         NA 0.82764         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.33230      NA      NA 0.70765      NA
NA 0.99748       NA       NA 0.79425       NA       NA 0.54814
NA         NA 0.58851         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.36180      NA      NA 0.48337      NA
NA 0.90449       NA       NA 0.63587       NA       NA 0.42857
NA         NA 0.27174         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.29814      NA      NA 0.17241      NA
NA 0.31201       NA       NA 0.52484       NA       NA 0.31056
NA         NA 0.04969         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.22360      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.02816       NA       NA 0.50155       NA       NA 0.22050
NA         NA 0.00311         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.16460      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.03845       NA       NA 0.50155       NA       NA 0.16149
NA         NA 0.00311         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.12112      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12112
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.07764      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.07764
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.05745      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.05745
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 1   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      644 0.00311      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00311
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.13004      NA      NA 0.91136      NA
NA 0.99608       NA       NA 0.91406       NA       NA 0.75781
NA         NA 0.82812         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.14444      NA      NA 0.84736      NA
NA 0.99728       NA       NA 0.79609       NA       NA 0.55000
NA         NA 0.59219         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.16501      NA      NA 0.66565      NA
NA 0.90449       NA       NA 0.63672       NA       NA 0.43125
NA         NA 0.27344         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.14343      NA      NA 0.29149      NA
NA 0.31201       NA       NA 0.52500       NA       NA 0.31250
NA         NA 0.05000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.11214      NA      NA 0.00513      NA
NA 0.02816       NA       NA 0.50156       NA       NA 0.22187
NA         NA 0.00313         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.07626      NA      NA 0.00753      NA
NA 0.03845       NA       NA 0.50156       NA       NA 0.16250
NA         NA 0.00313         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.04789      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12187
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.02538      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.07812
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.01619      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.05781
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                 9   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      640 0.00042      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00313
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.09160      NA      NA 0.93581      NA
NA 0.99617       NA       NA 0.91456       NA       NA 0.75949
NA         NA 0.82911         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.10592      NA      NA 0.88236      NA
NA 0.99745       NA       NA 0.79826       NA       NA 0.55538
NA         NA 0.59652         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.12199      NA      NA 0.72730      NA
NA 0.90588       NA       NA 0.63845       NA       NA 0.43513
NA         NA 0.27690         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.11270      NA      NA 0.33641      NA
NA 0.31201       NA       NA 0.52532       NA       NA 0.31646
NA         NA 0.05063         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.08992      NA      NA 0.01081      NA
NA 0.02816       NA       NA 0.50158       NA       NA 0.22468
NA         NA 0.00316         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.05968      NA      NA 0.01579      NA
NA 0.03845       NA       NA 0.50158       NA       NA 0.16456
NA         NA 0.00316         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.03595      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12342
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.01744      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.07911
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.01007      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.05854
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                25   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      632 0.00014      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00316
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.07060      NA      NA 0.94967      NA
NA 0.99607       NA       NA 0.91506       NA       NA 0.75962
NA         NA 0.83013         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.08243      NA      NA 0.90483      NA
NA 0.99797       NA       NA 0.79808       NA       NA 0.55929
NA         NA 0.59615         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.09919      NA      NA 0.76607      NA
NA 0.90867       NA       NA 0.64022       NA       NA 0.43750
NA         NA 0.28045         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.09993      NA      NA 0.35534      NA
NA 0.31350       NA       NA 0.52564       NA       NA 0.31891
NA         NA 0.05128         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.08169      NA      NA 0.01657      NA
NA 0.02816       NA       NA 0.50160       NA       NA 0.22756
NA         NA 0.00321         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.05341      NA      NA 0.02386      NA
NA 0.03845       NA       NA 0.50160       NA       NA 0.16667
NA         NA 0.00321         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.03229      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12500
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.01480      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.08013
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.00835      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.05929
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                49   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      624 0.00007      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00321
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.05620      NA      NA 0.95953      NA
NA 0.99648       NA       NA 0.91585       NA       NA 0.76471
NA         NA 0.83170         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.06512      NA      NA 0.92291      NA
NA 0.99856       NA       NA 0.79739       NA       NA 0.56373
NA         NA 0.59477         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.08777      NA      NA 0.78718      NA
NA 0.91207       NA       NA 0.64216       NA       NA 0.43954
NA         NA 0.28431         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.09611      NA      NA 0.36130      NA
NA 0.31805       NA       NA 0.52614       NA       NA 0.32026
NA         NA 0.05229         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.07905      NA      NA 0.01940      NA
NA 0.02877       NA       NA 0.50163       NA       NA 0.22712
NA         NA 0.00327         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.05055      NA      NA 0.02808      NA
NA 0.03882       NA       NA 0.50163       NA       NA 0.16830
NA         NA 0.00327         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.03064      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12582
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.01347      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.08007
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.00759      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.06046
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD                81   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      612 0.00005      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00327
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.04501      NA      NA 0.96734      NA
NA 0.99685       NA       NA 0.91695       NA       NA 0.77013
NA         NA 0.83389         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.05328      NA      NA 0.93569      NA
NA 0.99906       NA       NA 0.79698       NA       NA 0.56879
NA         NA 0.59396         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.08194      NA      NA 0.79703      NA
NA 0.91688       NA       NA 0.64513       NA       NA 0.44295
NA         NA 0.29027         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.09535      NA      NA 0.35928      NA
NA 0.32432       NA       NA 0.52685       NA       NA 0.32215
NA         NA 0.05369         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.07742      NA      NA 0.02001      NA
NA 0.02962       NA       NA 0.50168       NA       NA 0.22651
NA         NA 0.00336         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.04882      NA      NA 0.02840      NA
NA 0.03959       NA       NA 0.50168       NA       NA 0.16946
NA         NA 0.00336         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.02908      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12752
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.01238      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.08221
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.00697      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.06208
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               121   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      596 0.00004      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00336
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.03676      NA      NA 0.97314      NA
NA 0.99749       NA       NA 0.91840       NA       NA 0.77951
NA         NA 0.83681         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.04543      NA      NA 0.94418      NA
NA 0.99956       NA       NA 0.79774       NA       NA 0.57812
NA         NA 0.59549         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.07767      NA      NA 0.80311      NA
NA 0.91888       NA       NA 0.64757       NA       NA 0.44792
NA         NA 0.29514         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.09561      NA      NA 0.35117      NA
NA 0.32432       NA       NA 0.52691       NA       NA 0.32292
NA         NA 0.05382         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.07624      NA      NA 0.02011      NA
NA 0.03076       NA       NA 0.50174       NA       NA 0.22569
NA         NA 0.00347         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.04743      NA      NA 0.02797      NA
NA 0.04122       NA       NA 0.50174       NA       NA 0.16840
NA         NA 0.00347         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.02798      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12674
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.01138      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.08160
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.00636      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.06076
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               169   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      576 0.00003      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00347
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225     >=0.100    >=0.100
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.02979      NA      NA 0.97810      NA
NA 0.99859       NA       NA 0.91938       NA       NA 0.79529
NA         NA 0.83877         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225     >=2.400    >=2.400
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.03929      NA      NA 0.95081      NA
NA 0.99998       NA       NA 0.79620       NA       NA 0.58877
NA         NA 0.59239         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225     >=7.500    >=7.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.07296      NA      NA 0.80931      NA
NA 0.92022       NA       NA 0.65036       NA       NA 0.45471
NA         NA 0.30072         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=15.600   >=15.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.09410      NA      NA 0.34399      NA
NA 0.33452       NA       NA 0.52808       NA       NA 0.32609
NA         NA 0.05616         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=25.600   >=25.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.07371      NA      NA 0.01963      NA
NA 0.03149       NA       NA 0.50181       NA       NA 0.23007
NA         NA 0.00362         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=35.600   >=35.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.04496      NA      NA 0.02720      NA
NA 0.04253       NA       NA 0.50181       NA       NA 0.17029
NA         NA 0.00362         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=45.600   >=45.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.02639      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.12862
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=55.600   >=55.600
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.01045      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.08152
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225    >=64.500   >=64.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.00588      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.05978
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA
V5.0    WRF   240000    20110423_000000 20110423_000000 240000
20110423_000000 20110423_000000 APCP     A24      APCP    A24
MC_PCP FULL    NBRHD               225   >=124.500  >=124.500
NA 0.05000 NBRCNT      552 0.00003      NA      NA 0.00000      NA
NA 0.00000       NA       NA 0.50000       NA       NA 0.00362
NA         NA 0.00000         NA         NA

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Fri Jun 12 15:06:01 2015

Geeta,

Yes, you are correct.  UFSS = 0.5 + base_rate/2

For lower thresholds, the base rate will be higher, making UFSS
larger.  As
you increase the threshold, UFSS should decrease down to close to 0.5.

Looking at the grid_stat NBRCNT file you sent, you'll notice that the
UFSS
column = 0.5 + O_RATE column divided by 2.

Thanks,
John




On Tue, Jun 9, 2015 at 5:41 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT <met_help at ucar.edu>
wrote:

>
> <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
>
> Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM daily
files.
> hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC of 22
April
> 2011.
> I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I
plotted data
> in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details about
UFSS. It
> is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz UFSS=0.5+f0/2)
where f0
> is the observation rate.
> Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.
>
> Geeta
> From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> To: met_help at ucar.edu
> Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530
>
>
>
>
> Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further.
> ThanksGeeta
>
> From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> To: met_help at ucar.edu
> Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530
>
>
>
>
> Hi Tara,
> I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations
> n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and ncview etc.
>
> But a step further.
> I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.
>
> Geeta
>
> From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> To: met_help at ucar.edu
> Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530
>
>
>
>
> thanks Tara.
> Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last
year in
> New Delhi.
> I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
> It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more
detail.
>
> See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand
what is
> my FSS for this case??.
> U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I
am
> unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
> If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation) and
> grid_stat output to you.
>
> Geeta
>
> > Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
> >
> > Geeta,
> >
> > Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday
> was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put together the
> following answer:
> >
> > According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS
(asymptotic
> FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the bias
to the
> spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency
> bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared to the
> frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a factor
of 4,
> and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias, then AFSS =
1,
> indicating perfect skill over the domain.
> >
> > I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
> >
> > As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We typically
use
> ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie
> mentioned should also be able to read the files.
> >
> > Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about FSS,
AFSS
> etc.
> > Tara
> >
> >
> > On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > > Thanks John.
> > > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for
Lowest
> > > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit
confusing.
> > > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > > OK????
> > > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> > >
> > > Geeta
> > >
> > > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > > >
> > > > Geeta,
> > > >
> > > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for
you
> > > yet.
> > > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > > to a
> > > > scientist and statistician here.
> > > >
> > > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > John
> > > >
> > > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > >       Status: new
> > > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > > starting
> > > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I have
taken
> > > FSS
> > > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > > presume
> > > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a
good
> > > forecast. I
> > > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > > But it is
> > > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold
of
> > > 0.1). But
> > > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > > are
> > > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.
can u
> > > help me.
> > > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Sun Jun 14 07:41:25 2015

thanks John for you clarification.

But I didnt understand the AFSS. Actually, FSS increases
Asymptotically with increase in NBRHD width.
Then what's the Differerence b/w AFSS FSS???? and How is it (AFSS)
calculated.
Kindly explain. . I m not sure abt the AFSS????

2nd Ques.   Is is correct when I say that UFSS is NOT constant. It
varies.
So for a useful FCST, I will compare if the FSS (unique for 1 NBRHD
and 1 THRESHOLD) with that of UFSS. If it's MORE then at that
scale/NBRHD, FCST HAS SKILL!!!!!!!!!!.
Is my understanding correct????.

3. If U can guide me a little abt the input files Required for running
the Rsript for quilt plot, It would be great............

Geeta

> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2015 15:06:02 -0600ies.
>
> Geeta,
>
> Yes, you are correct.  UFSS = 0.5 + base_rate/2
>
> For lower thresholds, the base rate will be higher, making UFSS
larger.  As
> you increase the threshold, UFSS should decrease down to close to
0.5.
>
> Looking at the grid_stat NBRCNT file you sent, you'll notice that
the UFSS
> column = 0.5 + O_RATE column divided by 2.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 9, 2015 at 5:41 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> > Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM daily
files.
> > hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC of
22 April
> > 2011.
> > I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I
plotted data
> > in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details about
UFSS. It
> > is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz UFSS=0.5+f0/2)
where f0
> > is the observation rate.
> > Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.
> >
> > Geeta
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further.
> > ThanksGeeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi Tara,
> > I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations
> > n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and ncview etc.
> >
> > But a step further.
> > I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > thanks Tara.
> > Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last
year in
> > New Delhi.
> > I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
> > It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more
detail.
> >
> > See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand
what is
> > my FSS for this case??.
> > U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I
am
> > unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
> > If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation)
and
> > grid_stat output to you.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday
> > was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put together
the
> > following answer:
> > >
> > > According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS
(asymptotic
> > FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the
bias to the
> > spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency
> > bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared to the
> > frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4,
> > and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias, then AFSS
= 1,
> > indicating perfect skill over the domain.
> > >
> > > I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
> > >
> > > As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We
typically use
> > ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie
> > mentioned should also be able to read the files.
> > >
> > > Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about
FSS, AFSS
> > etc.
> > > Tara
> > >
> > >
> > > On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > > > Thanks John.
> > > > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for
Lowest
> > > > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit
confusing.
> > > > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > > > OK????
> > > > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> > > >
> > > > Geeta
> > > >
> > > > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > > > >
> > > > > Geeta,
> > > > >
> > > > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer
for you
> > > > yet.
> > > > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > > > to a
> > > > > scientist and statistician here.
> > > > >
> > > > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > John
> > > > >
> > > > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > > > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > >       Status: new
> > > > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > > > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > > > starting
> > > > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > > > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I
have taken
> > > > FSS
> > > > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > > > presume
> > > > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a
good
> > > > forecast. I
> > > > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > > > But it is
> > > > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold
of
> > > > 0.1). But
> > > > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > > > are
> > > > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.
can u
> > > > help me.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Wed Jun 17 08:56:31 2015

 Hi John.
Kindly help me in getting to know about the UFSS and AFSS. I was
waiting for your response.
I need a little more insight into these ideas.

thanks
Geeta

From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
To: met_help at ucar.edu
Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2015 19:11:21 +0530




thanks John for you clarification.

But I didnt understand the AFSS. Actually, FSS increases
Asymptotically with increase in NBRHD width.
Then what's the Differerence b/w AFSS FSS???? and How is it (AFSS)
calculated.
Kindly explain. . I m not sure abt the AFSS????

2nd Ques.   Is is correct when I say that UFSS is NOT constant. It
varies.
So for a useful FCST, I will compare if the FSS (unique for 1 NBRHD
and 1 THRESHOLD) with that of UFSS. If it's MORE then at that
scale/NBRHD, FCST HAS SKILL!!!!!!!!!!.
Is my understanding correct????.

3. If U can guide me a little abt the input files Required for running
the Rsript for quilt plot, It would be great............

Geeta

> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2015 15:06:02 -0600ies.
>
> Geeta,
>
> Yes, you are correct.  UFSS = 0.5 + base_rate/2
>
> For lower thresholds, the base rate will be higher, making UFSS
larger.  As
> you increase the threshold, UFSS should decrease down to close to
0.5.
>
> Looking at the grid_stat NBRCNT file you sent, you'll notice that
the UFSS
> column = 0.5 + O_RATE column divided by 2.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 9, 2015 at 5:41 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> > Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM daily
files.
> > hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC of
22 April
> > 2011.
> > I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I
plotted data
> > in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details about
UFSS. It
> > is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz UFSS=0.5+f0/2)
where f0
> > is the observation rate.
> > Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.
> >
> > Geeta
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further.
> > ThanksGeeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi Tara,
> > I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
(observations
> > n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and ncview etc.
> >
> > But a step further.
> > I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > thanks Tara.
> > Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last
year in
> > New Delhi.
> > I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
> > It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more
detail.
> >
> > See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand
what is
> > my FSS for this case??.
> > U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but I
am
> > unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
> > If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation)
and
> > grid_stat output to you.
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
Yesterday
> > was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put together
the
> > following answer:
> > >
> > > According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS
(asymptotic
> > FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the
bias to the
> > spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
frequency
> > bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared to the
> > frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of 4,
> > and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias, then AFSS
= 1,
> > indicating perfect skill over the domain.
> > >
> > > I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
> > >
> > > As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We
typically use
> > ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie
> > mentioned should also be able to read the files.
> > >
> > > Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about
FSS, AFSS
> > etc.
> > > Tara
> > >
> > >
> > > On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > > > Thanks John.
> > > > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for
Lowest
> > > > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit
confusing.
> > > > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
threshold!!!!.
> > > > OK????
> > > > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> > > >
> > > > Geeta
> > > >
> > > > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > > > >
> > > > > Geeta,
> > > > >
> > > > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer
for you
> > > > yet.
> > > > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
question
> > > > to a
> > > > > scientist and statistician here.
> > > > >
> > > > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > John
> > > > >
> > > > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > > > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > >       Status: new
> > > > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > > > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various neighbourhood
widths
> > > > starting
> > > > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > > > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I
have taken
> > > > FSS
> > > > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS and
AFSS. I
> > > > presume
> > > > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for a
good
> > > > forecast. I
> > > > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > > > But it is
> > > > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for threshold
of
> > > > 0.1). But
> > > > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data (trmm),
Plots
> > > > are
> > > > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output file.
can u
> > > > help me.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Thu Jun 18 13:55:06 2015

Geeta,

These quantities are computed in
met-5.0/src/libcode/vx_statistics/met_stats.cc

Here are the relevant lines of code:

   2215    //
   2216    // Compute Asymptotic Fractions Skill Score
   2217    //
   2218    num = 2.0*f_rate*o_rate;
   2219    den = f_rate*f_rate + o_rate*o_rate;
   2220
   2221    if(is_bad_data(f_rate) || is_bad_data(o_rate) || is_eq(den,
0.0)) {
   2222       afss = bad_data_double;
   2223    }
   2224    else {
   2225       afss = num/den;
   2226    }

   2236    //
   2237    // Compute Uniform Fractions Skill Score
   2238    //
   2239    if(is_bad_data(o_rate)) ufss = bad_data_double;
   2240    else                           ufss = 0.5 + o_rate/2.0;

In here, f_rate is the ratio (0 to 1) of forecast grid squares where
the
event (as defined by your threshold) is occurring.  o_rate is the
ratio of
observation grid squares where the event is occurring.

Take a look at this picture:
    http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/FSSplot.gif

This is taken from this website:
   http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/

AFSS (asymptotic fractions skill score) is the dotted line in that
picture
and, as computed above, is based on the bias for the forecast
threshold
you've chosen.  Mathematically speaking, FSS can never exceed that
AFSS
value.

UFSS (useful or uniform fraction skill score) is just 0.5 + the base
rate.

A forecast performs well when FSS > UFSS and, of course, FSS < AFSS
because
it can't exceed that value.

Hopefully that helps.

Thanks,
John


On Wed, Jun 17, 2015 at 8:56 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
wrote:

>
> <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
>
>  Hi John.
> Kindly help me in getting to know about the UFSS and AFSS. I was
waiting
> for your response.
> I need a little more insight into these ideas.
>
> thanks
> Geeta
>
> From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> To: met_help at ucar.edu
> Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2015 19:11:21 +0530
>
>
>
>
> thanks John for you clarification.
>
> But I didnt understand the AFSS. Actually, FSS increases
Asymptotically
> with increase in NBRHD width.
> Then what's the Differerence b/w AFSS FSS???? and How is it (AFSS)
> calculated.
> Kindly explain. . I m not sure abt the AFSS????
>
> 2nd Ques.   Is is correct when I say that UFSS is NOT constant. It
varies.
> So for a useful FCST, I will compare if the FSS (unique for 1 NBRHD
and 1
> THRESHOLD) with that of UFSS. If it's MORE then at that scale/NBRHD,
FCST
> HAS SKILL!!!!!!!!!!.
> Is my understanding correct????.
>
> 3. If U can guide me a little abt the input files Required for
running the
> Rsript for quilt plot, It would be great............
>
> Geeta
>
> > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2015 15:06:02 -0600ies.
> >
> > Geeta,
> >
> > Yes, you are correct.  UFSS = 0.5 + base_rate/2
> >
> > For lower thresholds, the base rate will be higher, making UFSS
larger.
> As
> > you increase the threshold, UFSS should decrease down to close to
0.5.
> >
> > Looking at the grid_stat NBRCNT file you sent, you'll notice that
the
> UFSS
> > column = 0.5 + O_RATE column divided by 2.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Jun 9, 2015 at 5:41 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> > wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > >
> > > Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM daily
files.
> > > hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC of
22
> April
> > > 2011.
> > > I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I
plotted
> data
> > > in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details
about
> UFSS. It
> > > is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz
UFSS=0.5+f0/2)
> where f0
> > > is the observation rate.
> > > Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.
> > >
> > > Geeta
> > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further.
> > > ThanksGeeta
> > >
> > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi Tara,
> > > I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
> (observations
> > > n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and ncview
etc.
> > >
> > > But a step further.
> > > I want to know if I can plot the binary data after thresholding.
> > >
> > > Geeta
> > >
> > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > thanks Tara.
> > > Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop last
year
> in
> > > New Delhi.
> > > I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
> > > It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more
detail.
> > >
> > > See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to understand
what
> is
> > > my FSS for this case??.
> > > U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close but
I am
> > > unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
> > > If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and observation)
and
> > > grid_stat output to you.
> > >
> > > Geeta
> > >
> > > > Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
> > > >
> > > > Geeta,
> > > >
> > > > Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS etc.
> Yesterday
> > > was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put together
the
> > > following answer:
> > > >
> > > > According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS
(asymptotic
> > > FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the
bias to
> the
> > > spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the conventional
> frequency
> > > bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared to
the
> > > frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of
> 4,
> > > and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias, then
AFSS = 1,
> > > indicating perfect skill over the domain.
> > > >
> > > > I will send more information as I or others pull it together.
> > > >
> > > > As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We
typically
> use
> > > ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting tools
Julie
> > > mentioned should also be able to read the files.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about
FSS,
> AFSS
> > > etc.
> > > > Tara
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > > > > Thanks John.
> > > > > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for
Lowest
> > > > > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit
confusing.
> > > > > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
> threshold!!!!.
> > > > > OK????
> > > > > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> > > > >
> > > > > Geeta
> > > > >
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Geeta,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer
for
> you
> > > > > yet.
> > > > > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred your
> question
> > > > > to a
> > > > > > scientist and statistician here.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next week.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > > John
> > > > > >
> > > > > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > > > > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted upon.
> > > > > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > > > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > > > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > >       Status: new
> > > > > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > > > > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various
neighbourhood
> widths
> > > > > starting
> > > > > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various thresholds
> > > > > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I
have
> taken
> > > > > FSS
> > > > > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS
and
> AFSS. I
> > > > > presume
> > > > > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line for
a good
> > > > > forecast. I
> > > > > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold, and
lowest
> > > > > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > > > > But it is
> > > > > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for
threshold of
> > > > > 0.1). But
> > > > > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data
(trmm),
> Plots
> > > > > are
> > > > > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output
file.  can
> u
> > > > > help me.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>

------------------------------------------------
Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
From: Geeta Geeta
Time: Sun Jul 12 06:59:20 2015

hi John.
I have been reading about the use of FSS in a few publications.
Kindly explain me the difference between "Random and Uniform FSS".
Didnot understand from the publications (Mittermair et al 2011).

what's is Random FSS??.
2. If I have questions regarding the running of R esp the quilt plot
of FSS whom should I ask.
where I should adrress. I m not familiar with R. I mean what should be
the input file, where it should be kept etc????



> Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> From: met_help at ucar.edu
> To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2015 13:55:07 -0600
>
> Geeta,
>
> These quantities are computed in
> met-5.0/src/libcode/vx_statistics/met_stats.cc
>
> Here are the relevant lines of code:
>
>    2215    //
>    2216    // Compute Asymptotic Fractions Skill Score
>    2217    //
>    2218    num = 2.0*f_rate*o_rate;
>    2219    den = f_rate*f_rate + o_rate*o_rate;
>    2220
>    2221    if(is_bad_data(f_rate) || is_bad_data(o_rate) ||
is_eq(den,
> 0.0)) {
>    2222       afss = bad_data_double;
>    2223    }
>    2224    else {
>    2225       afss = num/den;
>    2226    }
>
>    2236    //
>    2237    // Compute Uniform Fractions Skill Score
>    2238    //
>    2239    if(is_bad_data(o_rate)) ufss = bad_data_double;
>    2240    else                           ufss = 0.5 + o_rate/2.0;
>
> In here, f_rate is the ratio (0 to 1) of forecast grid squares where
the
> event (as defined by your threshold) is occurring.  o_rate is the
ratio of
> observation grid squares where the event is occurring.
>
> Take a look at this picture:
>     http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/FSSplot.gif
>
> This is taken from this website:
>    http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/
>
> AFSS (asymptotic fractions skill score) is the dotted line in that
picture
> and, as computed above, is based on the bias for the forecast
threshold
> you've chosen.  Mathematically speaking, FSS can never exceed that
AFSS
> value.
>
> UFSS (useful or uniform fraction skill score) is just 0.5 + the base
rate.
>
> A forecast performs well when FSS > UFSS and, of course, FSS < AFSS
because
> it can't exceed that value.
>
> Hopefully that helps.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
>
> On Wed, Jun 17, 2015 at 8:56 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> >
> >  Hi John.
> > Kindly help me in getting to know about the UFSS and AFSS. I was
waiting
> > for your response.
> > I need a little more insight into these ideas.
> >
> > thanks
> > Geeta
> >
> > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2015 19:11:21 +0530
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > thanks John for you clarification.
> >
> > But I didnt understand the AFSS. Actually, FSS increases
Asymptotically
> > with increase in NBRHD width.
> > Then what's the Differerence b/w AFSS FSS???? and How is it (AFSS)
> > calculated.
> > Kindly explain. . I m not sure abt the AFSS????
> >
> > 2nd Ques.   Is is correct when I say that UFSS is NOT constant. It
varies.
> > So for a useful FCST, I will compare if the FSS (unique for 1
NBRHD and 1
> > THRESHOLD) with that of UFSS. If it's MORE then at that
scale/NBRHD, FCST
> > HAS SKILL!!!!!!!!!!.
> > Is my understanding correct????.
> >
> > 3. If U can guide me a little abt the input files Required for
running the
> > Rsript for quilt plot, It would be great............
> >
> > Geeta
> >
> > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2015 15:06:02 -0600ies.
> > >
> > > Geeta,
> > >
> > > Yes, you are correct.  UFSS = 0.5 + base_rate/2
> > >
> > > For lower thresholds, the base rate will be higher, making UFSS
larger.
> > As
> > > you increase the threshold, UFSS should decrease down to close
to 0.5.
> > >
> > > Looking at the grid_stat NBRCNT file you sent, you'll notice
that the
> > UFSS
> > > column = 0.5 + O_RATE column divided by 2.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Tue, Jun 9, 2015 at 5:41 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102
>
> > > >
> > > > Hi John and tara. I have tried to run grid_stat with TRMM
daily files.
> > > > hence I extracted the model data for 24 hours starting 00 UTC
of 22
> > April
> > > > 2011.
> > > > I could not make the Quilt plot, but just for understanding I
plotted
> > data
> > > > in EXCEL. (results attatched).  I want to know, the details
about
> > UFSS. It
> > > > is varying for each threshold and NBRHD SIZE (becuz
UFSS=0.5+f0/2)
> > where f0
> > > > is the observation rate.
> > > > Kindly clarify these points.  I m waiting.
> > > >
> > > > Geeta
> > > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 17:54:25 +0530
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi John and Tara. I was waiting for your reply. Kindly help me
further.
> > > > ThanksGeeta
> > > >
> > > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:59:35 +0530
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi Tara,
> > > > I was NOT asking about the plotting of the NETCDF data files
> > (observations
> > > > n FCST). Those can be plotted with plot_data_plane and ncview
etc.
> > > >
> > > > But a step further.
> > > > I want to know if I can plot the binary data after
thresholding.
> > > >
> > > > Geeta
> > > >
> > > > From: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > To: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > Subject: RE: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 10:47:30 +0530
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > thanks Tara.
> > > > Nice to hear from U. I had met you at Verification workshop
last year
> > in
> > > > New Delhi.
> > > > I didnt understand Ur explanation fully.
> > > > It would be great if U can elaborate upon it in a little more
detail.
> > > >
> > > > See I got the output from Grid stat and now I need to
understand what
> > is
> > > > my FSS for this case??.
> > > > U must see my MODEL FCST and Observations. They are so close
but I am
> > > > unable to understand why FSS is so low????????.
> > > > If U want, I can send my plots (FSS and RF fcst and
observation) and
> > > > grid_stat output to you.
> > > >
> > > > Geeta
> > > >
> > > > > Subject: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 09:52:38 -0600
> > > > >
> > > > > Geeta,
> > > > >
> > > > > Sorry for the delay in answering your question about FSS
etc.
> > Yesterday
> > > > was a very busy day here. One of our statisticians put
together the
> > > > following answer:
> > > > >
> > > > > According to the Roberts and Lean (2008) paper, the AFSS
(asymptotic
> > > > FSS) is a useful descriptor of the bias because it relates the
bias to
> > the
> > > > spatial accuracy of a forecast and is linked to the
conventional
> > frequency
> > > > bias, but is less sensitive to small frequencies.  Compared to
the
> > > > frequency bias: AFSS = 0.8 is a factor of 2, AFSS = 0.5 is a
factor of
> > 4,
> > > > and AFSS = 0.2 is a factor of 10.  If there is no bias, then
AFSS = 1,
> > > > indicating perfect skill over the domain.
> > > > >
> > > > > I will send more information as I or others pull it
together.
> > > > >
> > > > > As for plotting the NetCDF files that come from MET.  We
typically
> > use
> > > > ncview or NCL for plotting the files, however the plotting
tools Julie
> > > > mentioned should also be able to read the files.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks for your patience as I prepare more information about
FSS,
> > AFSS
> > > > etc.
> > > > > Tara
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On Sat May 30 04:04:37 2015, geeta124 at hotmail.com wrote:
> > > > > > Thanks John.
> > > > > > Also I was wondering why I should get bad FSS /low FSS for
Lowest
> > > > > > Neighbourhood and lower threshold????. This looks a bit
confusing.
> > > > > > I should get low FSS for Lower neighbourhood and high
> > threshold!!!!.
> > > > > > OK????
> > > > > > I shall be waiting for your reply eagerly.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Geeta
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [rt.rap.ucar.edu #72102] FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > > > From: met_help at ucar.edu
> > > > > > > To: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > > Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:43:34 -0600
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Geeta,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Good questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have a good
answer for
> > you
> > > > > > yet.
> > > > > > > I'm headed out of town all next week, but I referred
your
> > question
> > > > > > to a
> > > > > > > scientist and statistician here.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hopefully you'll hear back from them about this next
week.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > > > John
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:26 AM, Geeta Geeta via RT
> > > > > > <met_help at ucar.edu>
> > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Thu May 28 06:26:14 2015: Request 72102 was acted
upon.
> > > > > > > > Transaction: Ticket created by geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > > >        Queue: met_help
> > > > > > > >      Subject: FSS, UFSS, AFSS
> > > > > > > >        Owner: Nobody
> > > > > > > >   Requestors: geeta124 at hotmail.com
> > > > > > > >       Status: new
> > > > > > > >  Ticket <URL:
> > > > > > https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=72102 >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Hi John. I have plotted the FSS for various
neighbourhood
> > widths
> > > > > > starting
> > > > > > > > from 1, 3,5,7,9,11,13 and 15 and for various
thresholds
> > > > > > (0.1,2.5,7.5, and
> > > > > > > > so on.). This is for One case of thunderstorm event. I
have
> > taken
> > > > > > FSS
> > > > > > > > column from my output. But there are three, FSS, UFSS
and
> > AFSS. I
> > > > > > presume
> > > > > > > > that UFSS is the UNIFORM FSS which is the base line
for a good
> > > > > > forecast. I
> > > > > > > > am sending My plot. (attached). for lower threshold,
and lowest
> > > > > > > > neighbourhood, I get lowest FSS which increases very
gradually.
> > > > > > But it is
> > > > > > > > less as compared to the UFSS (I plotted UFSS for
threshold of
> > > > > > 0.1). But
> > > > > > > > when I look at my model forecast and observed data
(trmm),
> > Plots
> > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > matching so nicely. I m sending my grid_stat output
file.  can
> > u
> > > > > > help me.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
>

------------------------------------------------


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