CEDAR email: Fwd: AGU session SA007

[Cheryl Huang]

Save the date for AGU session  SA007 - All Models Are Wrong but Some Are
Useful: A Famous Quote from George Box—Does This Apply to Modeling the
Space Environment? (
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meetingapp.cgi/Session/106688)

Our panel session is set for Tuesday, 8 December at 1030 PST. Our panelists
are:
R. Todd Parris
Katherine Garcia-Sage
J. Vincent Eccles
Sophie Murray
Roger Ghanem
C. David Lewis

Their pre-recorded videos are available online. We recommend viewing before
the panel discussion. For the live panel we have suggested questions for
discussion:

If empirical models are satisfactory, are first-principle physics models
useful, and why?

Does the search for funding inhibit innovation?

Are all the data available to validate and improve models available in
formats readily accessible to the community? Are models validated in the
context of the real-time data that will be available for operational model
use?

Can the technique of polynomial chaos reveal the primary sources of
prediction error?

In principle, good validation should lead to improved models. Has this
occurred?

What are the key steps for focusing in on a specific use case? For a
specific use case, how do we determine the real-time observations needed to
create a robust prediction capability?

What are the unmet model and data requirements for the UK Met Office and
DoD? How best can these gaps be met?
The panelists will each present a 4-minute response, then the floor will be
open for questions from attendees.

In addition there is a poster session running all day on the 8th, with many
innovative responses to the challenge outlined by our topic. Please join us
for an exciting day.

Cheryl Huang
Tony Mannucci
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