CEDAR email: Data Assimilation Symposium at IUGG

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Dear Colleagues,

The International Association for Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences 
(IAMAS) is hosting a 1-2 day symposium (M15) on FRONTIER CHALLENGES IN 
DATA ASSIMILATION AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (detailed description below) 
in Montreal between 8-18 July 2019 as part of the 27^th  IUGG General 
Assembly. Confirmed keynote speakers at the time of writing include Mark 
Buehner, Falko Judt and Jonathan Poterjoy. This symposium will also 
include a special sub-session in honour of William Lahoz on the theory 
and practice of assimilating observations of soil moisture, chemical 
species, pollutants, ozone and other atmospheric constituents. William 
Lahoz has made significant contributions to these areas and to IAMAS 
over the past few decades but is currently in poor health. Confirmed 
invited speakers for the Lahoz sub-session include Jean-Luc Attié. 
Quentin Errera and Richard Ménard. To submit an abstract, go to 
http://www.iugg2019montreal.com/abstract-submission.html, create an 
account if necessary, follow the instructions to submit an abstract (35 
Euro fee) and select IAMAS as the association symposium and M15 as the 
specific symposium before submitting your abstract. Abstracts are due on 
Monday, February 18, 2019. Please share this announcement with anyone 
who might be interested in attending.

Looking forward to meeting you in Montreal,

Craig Bishop, Christian Keil and Istvan Szunyogh

*M15 - FRONTIER CHALLENGES IN DATA ASSIMILATION AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING*

**

*Convener: *Craig Bishop (Australia)

*Co-conveners: *Christian Keil (Germany), Istvan Szunyogh (USA)

*Description*

The fields of Earth system data assimilation and ensemble forecasting 
are confronted with both new and long standing challenges in 
probabilistic state estimation: (i) the identification and 
representation of systematic and stochastic aspects of model error (ii) 
coupled models (iii) non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions (iv) short 
range ensemble forecast verification and post-processing (v) the use of 
multi-model and/or multi-resolution ensembles, (vi) achieving balanced 
ensemble initialization so that, for example, rainfall rates and 
cloudiness would not differ much between the first and last hours of a 
forecast, and (vii) the use of idealized observation system simulation 
experiments using both Numerical and/or Laboratory models to improve 
real state estimation schemes.

This symposium will bring together data assimilation and short-range 
ensemble forecasting experts to jointly address the aforementioned 
challenges and create an exchange of ideas likely to advance Earth 
system state estimation across its many facets. Papers are invited on 
all aspects of data assimilation and ensemble forecasting for the ocean, 
atmosphere, ice and land-surface.

We also welcome papers aimed at increasing understanding of the 
fundamental limits of predictability. Such papers could include: 
analyses of the relevant initial error dynamics and model error physics, 
ideas for estimating error growth that limits predictability, methods 
that attempt to quantify the short to medium range predictability of 
specific phenomena ranging from thunderstorms, torrential rains, 
tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events at forecast lead 
times from hours to 15 days.


Professor Craig Bishop

School of Earth Sciences

University of Melbourne

Corner of Swanston and Elgin Streets

Parkville, 3010

Victoria, Australia

Email: craig.bishop at unimelb.edu.au <mailto:craig.bishop at unimelb.edu.au>



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