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<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif">Dear Colleagues,<span></span></span>
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style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif">The International Association for
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) is hosting
a 1-2 day symposium (M15) on FRONTIER CHALLENGES IN DATA
ASSIMILATION AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (detailed
description below) in Montreal between 8-18 July 2019 as
part of the 27<sup>th</sup> IUGG General Assembly.
Confirmed keynote speakers at the time of writing
include Mark Buehner, Falko Judt and Jonathan Poterjoy.
This symposium will also include a special sub-session
in honour of William Lahoz on the theory and practice of
assimilating observations of soil moisture, chemical
species, pollutants, ozone and other atmospheric
constituents. William Lahoz has made significant
contributions to these areas and to IAMAS over the past
few decades but is currently in poor health. Confirmed
invited speakers for the Lahoz sub-session include
Jean-Luc Attié. Quentin Errera and Richard Ménard. To
submit an abstract, go to <span
class="gmail-MsoHyperlink"
style="color:rgb(5,99,193);text-decoration:underline"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.iugg2019montreal.com/abstract-submission.html"
style="color:rgb(149,79,114)"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.iugg2019montreal.com/abstract-submission.html">http://www.iugg2019montreal.com/abstract-submission.html</a></a></span>,
create an account if necessary, follow the instructions
to submit an abstract (35 Euro fee) and select IAMAS as
the association symposium and M15 as the specific
symposium before submitting your abstract. Abstracts are
due on Monday, February 18, 2019. Please share this
announcement with anyone who might be interested in
attending.<span></span></span></p>
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style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif">Looking forward to meeting you in
Montreal,<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif">Craig Bishop, Christian Keil and
Istvan Szunyogh<span></span></span></p>
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0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New
Roman",serif" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
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<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
class="gmail-h2"><b><span
style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Lucida
Sans",sans-serif;color:rgb(140,198,63);text-transform:uppercase">M15
- FRONTIER CHALLENGES IN DATA ASSIMILATION AND
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING</span></b></span><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"><span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> <span></span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Convener: </span></b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Craig
Bishop (Australia)<span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Co-conveners: </span></b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Christian
Keil (Germany), Istvan Szunyogh (USA)<span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> <span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><b><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Description<span></span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">The
fields of Earth system data assimilation and ensemble
forecasting are confronted with both new and long
standing challenges in probabilistic state estimation:
(i) the identification and representation of
systematic and stochastic aspects of model error (ii)
coupled models (iii) non-Gaussian uncertainty
distributions (iv) short range ensemble forecast
verification and post-processing (v) the use of
multi-model and/or multi-resolution ensembles, (vi)
achieving balanced ensemble initialization so that,
for example, rainfall rates and cloudiness would not
differ much between the first and last hours of a
forecast, and (vii) the use of idealized observation
system simulation experiments using both Numerical
and/or Laboratory models to improve real state
estimation schemes.<span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> <span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">This
symposium will bring together data assimilation and
short-range ensemble forecasting experts to jointly
address the aforementioned challenges and create an
exchange of ideas likely to advance Earth system state
estimation across its many facets. Papers are invited
on all aspects of data assimilation and ensemble
forecasting for the ocean, atmosphere, ice and
land-surface.<span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> <span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;border:none;padding:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">We
also welcome papers aimed at increasing understanding
of the fundamental limits of predictability. Such
papers could include: analyses of the relevant initial
error dynamics and model error physics, ideas for
estimating error growth that limits predictability,
methods that attempt to quantify the short to medium
range predictability of specific phenomena ranging
from thunderstorms, torrential rains, tropical
cyclones and other extreme weather events at forecast
lead times from hours to 15 days.<span></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">Professor Craig Bishop<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">School of Earth Sciences<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">University of Melbourne<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">Corner of Swanston and Elgin Streets<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">Parkville, 3010<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">Victoria, Australia<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin:0in 0in
0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span
lang="EN-US">Email: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:craig.bishop@unimelb.edu.au"
style="color:rgb(149,79,114)">craig.bishop@unimelb.edu.au</a><span></span></span></p>
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