[Stoch] AGU session on Stochastic Modeling

Aneesh Subramanian aneeshcs at gmail.com
Sun Jul 31 13:26:00 MDT 2016

Dear colleagues,

Please consider submitting an abstract to our session on “Stochastic
modeling for seamless probabilistic earth system forecasting” at this
year's Fall Meeting (submit on the meeting website
<http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2016/abstract-submissions/>; the deadline
is *August
3rd, 2016*):
*A028: Stochastic modeling for seamless probabilistic earth system

Submit an Abstract to this Session

*Session ID#: *13745
Session Description:
Forecasting the state of the atmosphere-ocean-land system from weather to
climate timescales is one of the most important aspects of earth system
science. One of the challenges in earth system forecasting is to provide
accurate probabilistic predictions. This includes the prediction of
forecast uncertainty, which increases the forecast value for decision
making and risk management. Stochastic parameterizations have been
successfully used for representing model uncertainty, improving ensemble
predictions, and reducing errors in statistical moments including
longstanding climate biases. The purpose of this session is to promote and
discuss stochastic methods that address the challenges of uncertainty
prediction in earth system forecasting. We encourage contributions aimed at
diagnosing, characterizing, and propagating model uncertainty, and welcome
ideas on designing stochastic schemes for assimilation and earth system
forecasting. The session includes physical, rigorous, reduced-order, and/or
empirical stochastic modeling and probabilistic methods for resolved and
under-resolved processes in atmospheric, land-surface, ocean, and/or
sea-ice models.
Primary Convener:  *Falko Judt*, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  *Aneesh Subramanian*, University of Oxford, Oxford, United
Kingdom, *Pierre F J Lermusiaux*, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA, United States*Mohamed Iskandarani*, University of Miami -
RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States

Aneesh C. Subramanian

        Homepage <http://www.aneeshcs.com>
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