<div dir="ltr"><div><p style="background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial">Dear colleagues,</p><p style="background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:arial">Please consider submitting an abstract to our session on “</span>Stochastic modeling for seamless probabilistic earth system forecasting<span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:arial">” at this year's Fall Meeting (submit on the meeting <a href="http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2016/abstract-submissions/" target="_blank">website</a>; the deadline is <b>August 3rd, 2016</b>):</span><br></p><span style="font-size:12.8px">------------------------------</span><span style="font-size:12.8px">------------------------------</span><span style="font-size:12.8px">------------------------------</span><span style="font-size:12.8px">---------------------------</span></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><b><font size="4">A028: Stochastic modeling for seamless probabilistic earth system forecasting</font></b></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><br></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><a href="https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/a/papers/index.cgi?sessionid=13745" target="_blank">Submit an Abstract to this Session</a><br></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><br></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><p style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:14px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:arial,"helvetica neue",tahoma,sans-serif"><b style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px">Session ID#: </b>13745</p><h5 style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:14px;line-height:1;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:arial,"helvetica neue",tahoma,sans-serif">Session Description:</h5><div style="border:0px;margin:0px 0px 15px;padding:0px;font-size:14px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:arial,"helvetica neue",tahoma,sans-serif">Forecasting the state of the atmosphere-ocean-land system from weather to climate timescales is one of the most important aspects of earth system science. One of the challenges in earth system forecasting is to provide accurate probabilistic predictions. This includes the prediction of forecast uncertainty, which increases the forecast value for decision making and risk management. Stochastic parameterizations have been successfully used for representing model uncertainty, improving ensemble predictions, and reducing errors in statistical moments including longstanding climate biases. The purpose of this session is to promote and discuss stochastic methods that address the challenges of uncertainty prediction in earth system forecasting. We encourage contributions aimed at diagnosing, characterizing, and propagating model uncertainty, and welcome ideas on designing stochastic schemes for assimilation and earth system forecasting. The session includes physical, rigorous, reduced-order, and/or empirical stochastic modeling and probabilistic methods for resolved and under-resolved processes in atmospheric, land-surface, ocean, and/or sea-ice models.</div><div style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:8px 0px;font-size:14px;width:678px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:arial,"helvetica neue",tahoma,sans-serif"><div style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px"><span style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:inherit;font-weight:bold;vertical-align:top">Primary Convener: </span><span style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:inherit;width:610.188px;display:block"><b style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px">Falko Judt</b>, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States </span></div><div style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px"><span style="font-size:inherit;border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-weight:bold;vertical-align:top">Conveners: </span><span style="font-size:inherit;border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;width:610.188px;display:block"><b style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px">Aneesh Subramanian</b>, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, </span><span style="font-size:inherit;border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;width:610.188px;display:block"><b style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px">Pierre F J Lermusiaux</b>, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States</span><span style="font-size:inherit;border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;width:610.188px;display:block"><b style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px">Mohamed Iskandarani</b>, University of Miami - RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States</span><span style="font-size:inherit;border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;width:610.188px;display:block"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(34,34,34)">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><div><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(34,34,34)"><br></span></div></div></div></div><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div><font face="verdana, sans-serif">Aneesh C. Subramanian</font></div><div><br></div><div> <font face="verdana, sans-serif"><a href="http://www.aneeshcs.com" target="_blank">Homepage</a></font></div> </div></div></div>
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