Tim.Palmer at ecmwf.int
Mon Jan 24 13:01:22 MST 2011
Welcome to this new informal network whose aim is to bring together
people interested in promoting and developing stochastic-dynamic methods
for improving our weather and climate prediction models. We live in
rather important and rapidly changing times where reliable predictions
of future weather and climate, on a range of timescales from days to
centuries, will be at a premium for a variety of purposes.
Our motivation for developing stochastic-dynamic representations of near
and subgrid processes in our comprehensive models of weather and climate
are manifold. It is possible that many of the long-standing climate
model biases might be alleviated with more stochastic parametrisations.
Also, stochastic techniques are likely to provide the means to estimate
model uncertainty in our ensemble predictions, in ways more rigorous
than are possible using the more ad hoc multi-model ensemble technique.
In addition, stochastic climate models may allow one to utilise the
efficiency of a new generation of probabilistic computer chips.
Moreover, the development of stochastic ideas in climate models opens
up new possibilities for collaboration, both between different climate
and weather institutes, and also between the mathematical and
conventional climate modelling communities. And finally, don't forget it
was Lorenz who said " I believe the ultimate climate models will be
stochastic, ie random numbers will appear somewhere in the time
These ideas are discussed in TNP's Bjerknes Lecture at the Fall AGU
Please post messages about your own work, and about forthcoming
meetings, onto this network. In this regard, you may be interested in an
ECMWF/WWRP/WCRP workshop on "Representing Model Error in Weather and
Climate Models" on 20-24 June 2011 at ECMWF. There will be a limited
number of spaces available if you wish to participate. Please register
your interest to attend at
Other forthcoming workshops that might interest you:
Von Neumann Symposium on Multimodel and Multialgorithm Coupling for
Nordita program on predictability and data assimilation:
Tim Palmer (Oxford and ECMWF) and Judith Berner (NCAR)
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