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Dear Colleagues<br>
<br>
Welcome to this new informal network whose aim is to bring together
people interested in promoting and developing stochastic-dynamic
methods for improving our weather and climate prediction models. We
live in rather important and rapidly changing times where reliable
predictions of future weather and climate, on a range of timescales
from days to centuries, will be at a premium for a variety of
purposes. <br>
<br>
Our motivation for developing stochastic-dynamic representations of
near and subgrid processes in our comprehensive models of weather
and climate are manifold. It is possible that many of the
long-standing climate model biases might be alleviated with more
stochastic parametrisations. Also, stochastic techniques are likely
to provide the means to estimate model uncertainty in our ensemble
predictions, in ways more rigorous than are possible using the more
ad hoc multi-model ensemble technique. In addition, stochastic
climate models may allow one to utilise the efficiency of a new
generation of probabilistic computer chips. Moreover, the
development of stochastic ideas in climate models opens up new
possibilities for collaboration, both between different climate and
weather institutes, and also between the mathematical and
conventional climate modelling communities. And finally, don't
forget it was Lorenz who said " I believe the ultimate climate
models will be stochastic, ie random numbers will appear somewhere
in the time derivatives"!<br>
<br>
These ideas are discussed in TNP's Bjerknes Lecture at the Fall AGU
meeting. <br>
<pre wrap=""><a moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm10/lectures/lecture_videos/A42A.shtml">http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm10/lectures/lecture_videos/A42A.shtml</a>
</pre>
Please post messages about your own work, and about forthcoming
meetings, onto this network. In this regard, you may be interested
in an ECMWF/WWRP/WCRP workshop on "Representing Model Error in
Weather and Climate Models" on 20-24 June 2011 at ECMWF. There will
be a limited number of spaces available if you wish to participate.
Please register your interest to attend at<br>
<br>
<font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"><a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2011/Model_uncertainty/">http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2011/Model_uncertainty/</a></font><br>
<br>
Other forthcoming workshops that might interest you:<br>
<br>
Von Neumann Symposium on Multimodel and Multialgorithm Coupling for
Multiscale Problems<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.ams.org/meetings/amsconf/symposia/symposia-2011">http://www.ams.org/meetings/amsconf/symposia/symposia-2011</a><br>
<br>
Nordita program on predictability and data assimilation:<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://cms.nordita.org/index.php?q=visits&y=6963616c5f646179313d31333033313338383030&btn_action=">http://cms.nordita.org/index.php?q=visits&y=6963616c5f646179313d31333033313338383030&btn_action=</a>
<br>
<br>
Best wishes<br>
<br>
Tim Palmer (Oxford and ECMWF) and Judith Berner (NCAR)
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