[NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation

[jayanti pal]

Hello,

Though I am not familier with NARCCAP model I suggest to check the precipiation values in the dataset. I found a paper "Evaluation and bias correction of Precipitation and Temperature of NARCCAP Regional Climate Models over the North Carolina, US" by 

Kim, Y.; Band, L. E.  where they used five GCM-RCM model among which in the RCM3s, spring and winter
precipitation are overestimated. I cant open this paper due to restriction on this site. I also found another paper, I have attached it . Hope it will help you. 

With Regards,


 
Jayanti Pal
Junior Research Fellow
Department of Atmospheric SCience
University Of Calcutta
email-jiban_samudra18 at yahoo.com
jayantibright at gmail.com


________________________________
 From: Kelli Walters <waltersk at onid.orst.edu>
To: narccap-discuss at mailman.ucar.edu 
Sent: Wednesday, 28 August 2013 5:47 AM
Subject: [NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation
 

Hello,

I am evaluating which NARCCAP model runs best fit my observed data to  
determine which ones I should use as climate projections in a  
hydrologic model. I am comparing the past data set (1970-2000) from  
the models to observed data for temperature (max and min) and  
precipitation. For temperature, the models seem to accurately reflect  
the observations, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies around 0.5 (r2 of  
0.5-0.6) for daily comparison and in the range of 0.6-0.9 (r2 of about  
0.85) for monthly averages.

However, for precipitation, my errors have been much larger. I am  
getting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of around -0.4 to -1 (r2 of 0.02  
and smaller) for both daily values and monthly averages. What I am  
wondering is: are these error values normal or in the same range as  
other people are getting for precipitation?

Do you have any papers or references that give these error metrics for  
precipitation when comparing the modeled data to observations? I have  
been looking for literature to back up what I am finding, but I can't  
seem to find what values are considered "acceptable" for precipitation  
error. Any help or sources you can provide on this would be much  
appreciated.

Thank you,
Kelli


-- 
KELLI WALTERS, EIT
M.S. Candidate
Civil Engineering | Water Resources
Oregon State University
waltersk at onid.orst.edu





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