[Grad-postdoc-assn] March ASP Seminar: Greg Holland, Weds., 11 am

[Clark Evans]

Hi all,

The ASP Seminar Series continues next Wednesday, March 17 with a 
presentation by the director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory (NESL), 
Greg Holland. The title of Greg's seminar is "Climatic Trends and 
Variability in Atlantic Hurricanes," the abstract for which may be found 
below. The seminar will be held in FL2-1022 at 11 am with refreshments 
served shortly beforehand. You all are also invited to lunch with Greg 
in FL2-1003 immediately afterward, where Greg will be happy to chat with 
you about research, the recent ESSL/NESL reorganization, or anything 
else on your mind.

Please feel free to let me know if you have any questions. We look 
forward to seeing you all next Wednesday morning!

The ASP Seminar Organizing Committee

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/*Abstract: */Changes in Atlantic hurricane activity on climatic 
timescales, both from natural variability and anthropogenic impacts, has 
generated a lot of discussion over recent years. Here I will first 
outline some of the factors relating to hurricane changes and provide an 
update on community assessments based on a recently published consensus 
report from a WMO team. I will follow this with a presentation of recent 
climate simulations here at NCAR to highlight both the difficulties and 
pitfalls involved and the multiple approaches that can be adopted. Third 
will be a general discussion of recent hurricane predictions and issues 
arising. Finally, I will use an extreme value viewpoint to show how 
logical it is to expect marked changes in weather extremes in general 
(hurricanes in particular) with both climate variability and change. 
Indeed the weather extremes may provide the best bellwether for 
identifying climate change as it develops.


-- 
Clark Evans
Postdoctoral Fellow, ASP/MMM
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307
E-mail: evans at ucar.edu
Phone:  303.497.8927

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