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Hi all,<br>
<br>
The ASP Seminar Series continues next Wednesday, March 17 with a
presentation by the director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory (NESL),
Greg Holland. The title of Greg's seminar is "Climatic Trends and
Variability in Atlantic Hurricanes," the abstract for which may be
found below. The seminar will be held in FL2-1022 at 11 am with
refreshments served shortly beforehand. You all are also invited to
lunch with Greg in FL2-1003 immediately afterward, where Greg will be
happy to chat with you about research, the recent ESSL/NESL
reorganization, or anything else on your mind.<br>
<br>
Please feel free to let me know if you have any questions. We look
forward to seeing you all next Wednesday morning!<br>
<br>
The ASP Seminar Organizing Committee<br>
<br>
-----<br>
<br>
<i><b>Abstract: </b></i>Changes in Atlantic hurricane activity on
climatic timescales, both
from natural variability and anthropogenic impacts, has generated a lot
of discussion over recent years. Here I will first outline some of the
factors relating to hurricane changes and provide an update on
community assessments based on a recently published consensus report
from a WMO team. I will follow this with a presentation of recent
climate simulations here at NCAR to highlight both the difficulties and
pitfalls involved and the multiple approaches that can be adopted.
Third will be a general discussion of recent hurricane predictions and
issues arising. Finally, I will use an extreme value viewpoint to show
how logical it is to expect marked changes in weather extremes in
general (hurricanes in particular) with both climate variability and
change. Indeed the weather extremes may provide the best bellwether for
identifying climate change as it develops.<br>
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--
Clark Evans
Postdoctoral Fellow, ASP/MMM
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307
E-mail: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:evans@ucar.edu">evans@ucar.edu</a>
Phone: 303.497.8927
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