[Cowystats] CO/WY Chapter Information

Matt Pocernich pocernic at rap.ucar.edu
Thu Oct 19 10:04:55 MDT 2006

My apologies for the drought in chapter activities this semester. We
are planning activities with other groups such as the Denver SAS 
Users Group and the local chapters of the American Society for
Quality.  More details will follow.

Below is information about a seminar at the University of Denver that
may be of interest to members.

** Statistical Auditing in Medicare and Medicaid Fraud Cases
by Professor Klaus J. Miescke
 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Illinois at Chicago

October 27, 2006 2:30 - 3:30 pm
Room 140 Daniels College of Business University of Denver.

To estimate the total overpayment on a large number of paid claims,
government agencies utilize extrapolation methods that are based on
the audit results from a random sample of these claims. Although there
is a variety of approaches that are reasonable and statistically
valid, some play out better than others in the legal process. For
example, the estimator of the total loss must be unbiased by fairness
reasons. Using a biased estimator with a smaller MSE would be
unacceptable. In this talk we describe the entire audit process,
including possible objections from the other side and suggestions on
how to respond to them. The theoretical part of the talk is based on
W.G. Cochran (1977), Sampling Techniques, 3rd ed., Wiley, NY, and the
rest on practical experience. It should be pointed out that it is the
loss, not the fraud itself, that can be detected and estimated

** Job posting at CU - Denver;  A active job posting site is
   maintained by the CU-Denver Math Department.
   See http://www-math.cudenver.edu/statistics/

** Spring Meeting 

The tentative date for the spring meeting is Friday April 20st, 2007.
Since you may not have your 2007 calendars yet, this information will 
probably be repeated.

** Please contact us with any questions or comments.

Matt Pocernich
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Laboratory
(303) 497-8312

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