[Stoch] Paper on stochastic sea ice parameterization

[Stephan Juricke]

Dear all,

the Journal of Climate has published a paper on stochastic sea ice parameterization as an 'Early Online Release' which might be of interest to some of you.

Best regards,

Stephan Juricke
Effects of stochastic ice strength perturbation on Arctic finite element sea ice modelling

S. Juricke, P. Lemke, R. Timmermann, and T. Rackow

Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00388.1

Abstract:

The ice strength parameter P* is a key parameter in dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models which can not be measured directly. Stochastically perturbing P* in the Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) of the Alfred Wegener Institute aims at investigating the effect of uncertainty pertaining to this parameterization. Three different approaches using symmetric perturbations have been applied: (1) reassignment of uncorrelated noise fields to perturb P* at every grid point, (2) a Markov chain time correlation, and (3) a Markov chain time correlation with some spatial correlation between nodes. Despite symmetric perturbations, results show an increase of Arctic sea ice volume and a decrease of Arctic sea ice area for all three approaches. Especially the introduction of spatial correlation leads to a substantial increase in sea ice volume and mean thickness. The strongest response can be seen for multiyear ice north of the Greenland coast. An ensemble of eight perturbed simulations generates a spread in the multiyear ice comparable to the interannual variability of the model. Results can not be reproduced by a simple constant global modification of P*.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.ucar.edu/pipermail/stoch/attachments/20130107/fd491ec5/attachment.html