[Nsa] ASP Seminar location/time change
Scott Briggs
sbriggs at ucar.edu
Tue Oct 1 10:38:51 MDT 2013
Due to recent inconsistency with the Staff Notes Daily email, I'm
sending this announcement to the NSA & ECSA lists since the location and
time have changed and the seminar is tomorrow. Details and abstract below.
Best regards,
Scott
Advanced Study Program Seminar
*Wednesday October 2nd 2013, 11:00 a.m.**
**Mesa Laboratory, Main Seminar Room*
Refreshments served before the seminar
*Sarah Michaels**
**University of Nebraska**
**Department of Political Science*
Uncertainty, policy and atmospheric scientists
*Abstract:*
Atmospheric scientists play – and potentially could play an even more
vital role – in public policy through their work in forecasting and
predicting matters vital to societal interests. As decision makers
increasingly recognize societal dependence on non-stationary natural
systems they must use forecasts and predictions to make choices about
the future. If so, how come the work of atmospheric scientists doesn’t
always constitute a key contribution to salient public policy? For
atmospheric scientists to become policy savvy begins with recognizing
key dimensions of the policy making process. This is a critical first
step for atmospheric scientists to determine when there is potential for
them to contribute persuasively to policy and when there is not. If
there is, such understanding provides the basis for engaging effectively
in making strategic contributions to expertise-related policy.
A second vital step for atmospheric scientists in assessing their
potential contributions to policy making is to develop an appreciation
of uncertainty beyond their professional understanding of it. Policy
makers as well as researchers outside of the atmospheric science
community do not necessarily treat uncertainty as do atmospheric
scientists. Rather than sorting through the many meanings of
uncertainty, it is helpful to think in terms of indeterminism, which
holds even if the current state of nature is known exactly there is no
certain future. A basic consequence of indeterminism is the necessity of
deciding absent perfect information. The extent and combination of
different sources of indeterminism shape the potential of science to
contribute to decision making. To illustrate how combining the natural
and social sources of indeterminism matters four examples from
socio-ecological system management are presented; Midcontinent Mallards,
Laysan Ducks, Pallid Sturgeon, and Rocky Mountain Grey Wolves. Where
natural indeterminism is low, reasonably accurate predictions may serve
as decision making inputs. Where social indeterminism is high,
scientists, while acknowledging the primacy of societal-based concerns,
can enlarge the array of science-based possibilities considered by
decision makers (Michaels and Tyre 2012).
The need to connect the atmospheric science community to policy making
is well recognized (Morss et al. 2008). Yet, little explicit attention
has been paid to how ensembles feature, if they do, in policy. This is
problematic because ensembles, representing a range of uncertainties and
possible future states, have become a mainstay of weather forecasting
and climate prediction. What circumstances and factors influence the
uptake of ensemble forecasts and predictions by policy makers?
Addressing this question will advance our comprehension of the
science-policy interface and contribute to strengthening links between
atmospheric scientists and policy makers.
Source cited
Michaels, S. and Tyre, A.J. 2012. How indeterminism shapes ecologists’
contributions to managing socio-ecological systems. Conservation Letters
5:4:289-295.
Morss, R.E., Lazo, J.K. Brown, B.G. Brooks, H.E. Ganderton, P.T. and
Mills, B.N. 2008. Societal and economic research and applications for
weather forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX program.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(3) 335–346.
--
Scott Briggs
Administrative Assistant
Advanced Study Program
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
303-497-1607
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