[NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation

[Kelli Walters]

Obey,

Thank you for your input. I am looking into some bias correction methods now.

Thanks,
Kelli

-- 
KELLI WALTERS, EIT
M.S. Candidate
Civil Engineering | Water Resources
Oregon State University
waltersk at onid.orst.edu



Quoting "Obeysekera, Jayantha" <jobey at sfwmd.gov>:

> Hi Kelli,
> I am not surprised.
> We have had similar findings in Florida.  I believe your only choice  
> may be to "bias-correct" the NARCCAP data before they are used in  
> hydrological models.  I personally do not think that is the right  
> way to use RCM data but there appears to be no other choice.
> Obey
> ________________________________________
> From: narccap-discuss-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu  
> [narccap-discuss-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu] on behalf of Kelli  
> Walters [waltersk at onid.orst.edu]
> Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2013 8:17 PM
> To: narccap-discuss at mailman.ucar.edu
> Subject: [NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation
>
> Hello,
>
> I am evaluating which NARCCAP model runs best fit my observed data to
> determine which ones I should use as climate projections in a
> hydrologic model. I am comparing the past data set (1970-2000) from
> the models to observed data for temperature (max and min) and
> precipitation. For temperature, the models seem to accurately reflect
> the observations, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies around 0.5 (r2 of
> 0.5-0.6) for daily comparison and in the range of 0.6-0.9 (r2 of about
> 0.85) for monthly averages.
>
> However, for precipitation, my errors have been much larger. I am
> getting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of around -0.4 to -1 (r2 of 0.02
> and smaller) for both daily values and monthly averages. What I am
> wondering is: are these error values normal or in the same range as
> other people are getting for precipitation?
>
> Do you have any papers or references that give these error metrics for
> precipitation when comparing the modeled data to observations? I have
> been looking for literature to back up what I am finding, but I can't
> seem to find what values are considered "acceptable" for precipitation
> error. Any help or sources you can provide on this would be much
> appreciated.
>
> Thank you,
> Kelli
>
>
> --
> KELLI WALTERS, EIT
> M.S. Candidate
> Civil Engineering | Water Resources
> Oregon State University
> waltersk at onid.orst.edu
>
>
>
>
>
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