[NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation
jayanti pal
jiban_samudra18 at yahoo.com
Thu Aug 29 23:47:58 MDT 2013
Hello,
Though I am not familier with NARCCAP model I suggest to check the precipiation values in the dataset. I found a paper "Evaluation and bias correction of Precipitation and Temperature of NARCCAP Regional Climate Models over the North Carolina, US" by
Kim, Y.; Band, L. E. where they used five GCM-RCM model among which in the RCM3s, spring and winter
precipitation are overestimated. I cant open this paper due to restriction on this site. I also found another paper, I have attached it . Hope it will help you.
With Regards,
Jayanti Pal
Junior Research Fellow
Department of Atmospheric SCience
University Of Calcutta
email-jiban_samudra18 at yahoo.com
jayantibright at gmail.com
________________________________
From: Kelli Walters <waltersk at onid.orst.edu>
To: narccap-discuss at mailman.ucar.edu
Sent: Wednesday, 28 August 2013 5:47 AM
Subject: [NARCCAP-discuss] High observed vs. modeled errors for precipitation
Hello,
I am evaluating which NARCCAP model runs best fit my observed data to
determine which ones I should use as climate projections in a
hydrologic model. I am comparing the past data set (1970-2000) from
the models to observed data for temperature (max and min) and
precipitation. For temperature, the models seem to accurately reflect
the observations, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies around 0.5 (r2 of
0.5-0.6) for daily comparison and in the range of 0.6-0.9 (r2 of about
0.85) for monthly averages.
However, for precipitation, my errors have been much larger. I am
getting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of around -0.4 to -1 (r2 of 0.02
and smaller) for both daily values and monthly averages. What I am
wondering is: are these error values normal or in the same range as
other people are getting for precipitation?
Do you have any papers or references that give these error metrics for
precipitation when comparing the modeled data to observations? I have
been looking for literature to back up what I am finding, but I can't
seem to find what values are considered "acceptable" for precipitation
error. Any help or sources you can provide on this would be much
appreciated.
Thank you,
Kelli
--
KELLI WALTERS, EIT
M.S. Candidate
Civil Engineering | Water Resources
Oregon State University
waltersk at onid.orst.edu
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