[Met_help] [rt.rap.ucar.edu #87714] History for question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE time domain
John Halley Gotway via RT
met_help at ucar.edu
Fri Nov 9 09:18:32 MST 2018
----------------------------------------------------------------
Initial Request
----------------------------------------------------------------
Hi,
I was trying to generate forecast track errors for extra-tropical
cyclones. I understand that I can do something like this using MODE time
domain. However, when I look at the documentation, it looks like I need to
use the actual model grib data to do this. Maybe like the current GFS
file, and then yesterdays' 24 hour forecast file? Is that correct?
So, the forecast errors that I'm interested in calculating are distance
from actual forecasted position, and intensity. Can this be done using the
*.stat files that MET has already generated?
Thanks in advance!
Roz
--
Rosalyn MacCracken
Support Scientist
Ocean Applications Branch
NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
NCWCP
5830 University Research Ct
College Park, MD 20740-3818
(p) 301-683-1551
rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
----------------------------------------------------------------
Complete Ticket History
----------------------------------------------------------------
Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE time domain
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Thu Nov 08 17:08:49 2018
Roz,
I see that you're interested in verifying the track and intensity for
extra-tropical cyclones. Guang Ping Lou is a scientist at NOAA-EMC
who has
been doing this for a while. Here's his website:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/index.html
He runs a modified version of the hurricane tracker to track extra-
tropical
cyclones across the GRIB model output. Then he runs the tracker on
the
0-hour model analyses to generate analysis (i.e. observation) tracks.
Then
he applies logic to compare the forecast and observed tracks to
determine
which ones are for the same storm.
We've worked with him to run the ATCF output track files through MET's
tc_pairs and tc_stat tools to quantify the track and intensity errors.
Additionally, this logic formed the basis for the track and intensity
storm-relative use case in METplus.
In principle, mtd could be use to apply similar logic. However, we
have
actually done so yet. There is likely a lot of sophistication in
storm
identification and tracking in the hurricane tracker that don't exist
in
mtd.
I'd encourage you to talk to Guang Ping about areas of overlap and
collaboration.
Thanks,
John Halley Gotway
On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 1:58 PM Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate via
RT <
met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> Thu Nov 08 13:57:59 2018: Request 87714 was acted upon.
> Transaction: Ticket created by rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> Queue: met_help
> Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE
time
> domain
> Owner: Nobody
> Requestors: rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> Status: new
> Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=87714 >
>
>
> Hi,
>
> I was trying to generate forecast track errors for extra-tropical
> cyclones. I understand that I can do something like this using MODE
time
> domain. However, when I look at the documentation, it looks like I
need to
> use the actual model grib data to do this. Maybe like the current
GFS
> file, and then yesterdays' 24 hour forecast file? Is that correct?
>
> So, the forecast errors that I'm interested in calculating are
distance
> from actual forecasted position, and intensity. Can this be done
using the
> *.stat files that MET has already generated?
>
> Thanks in advance!
>
> Roz
>
> --
> Rosalyn MacCracken
> Support Scientist
>
> Ocean Applications Branch
> NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> NCWCP
> 5830 University Research Ct
> College Park, MD 20740-3818
>
> (p) 301-683-1551
> rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>
>
------------------------------------------------
Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE time domain
From: Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate
Time: Fri Nov 09 06:16:36 2018
Hi John,
I've actually talked to Guang Ping. Guang Ping pointed me to a
website
where the columns were defined, and sent me 2 powerpoint files related
to
the work at EMC, but, didn't offer much else help. I had talked to
Mike
Erickson (WPC), and he was the one that suggested I use MODE.
Guang Ping did give me the output ATCF track file, but, I'm really not
sure
what I can do with this file. You seem to know alot about this file.
The
storms seem to be very short-lived, only having observations for about
4-6
cycles. I did see that some of the storms have lat/lon associated
with
forecast lead hours (f006, f024, etc). So, I'm not sure what this
lat/lons
are...I was thinking that if there are lat/lon associated with f024,
then,
this is the 24 hour forcasted position, but, there isn't a validated
24
hour lat/lon point in the file, so, how do I know this lat/lon is
correct?
Anyway, it seems like there may be info in the ATCF file that I can
use. I
just need to figure out how to use it. What is tc_stat tools? Does
that
only require this ATCF file, or do I need other data? I'll look at
the
documentation while I'm waiting for your answer...
Thanks!
Roz
On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 7:08 PM, John Halley Gotway via RT
<met_help at ucar.edu
> wrote:
> Roz,
>
> I see that you're interested in verifying the track and intensity
for
> extra-tropical cyclones. Guang Ping Lou is a scientist at NOAA-EMC
who has
> been doing this for a while. Here's his website:
> http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/index.html
>
> He runs a modified version of the hurricane tracker to track extra-
tropical
> cyclones across the GRIB model output. Then he runs the tracker on
the
> 0-hour model analyses to generate analysis (i.e. observation)
tracks. Then
> he applies logic to compare the forecast and observed tracks to
determine
> which ones are for the same storm.
>
> We've worked with him to run the ATCF output track files through
MET's
> tc_pairs and tc_stat tools to quantify the track and intensity
errors.
>
> Additionally, this logic formed the basis for the track and
intensity
> storm-relative use case in METplus.
>
> In principle, mtd could be use to apply similar logic. However, we
have
> actually done so yet. There is likely a lot of sophistication in
storm
> identification and tracking in the hurricane tracker that don't
exist in
> mtd.
>
> I'd encourage you to talk to Guang Ping about areas of overlap and
> collaboration.
>
> Thanks,
> John Halley Gotway
>
> On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 1:58 PM Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate
via RT <
> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> >
> > Thu Nov 08 13:57:59 2018: Request 87714 was acted upon.
> > Transaction: Ticket created by rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> > Queue: met_help
> > Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using
MODE time
> > domain
> > Owner: Nobody
> > Requestors: rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> > Status: new
> > Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=87714 >
> >
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > I was trying to generate forecast track errors for extra-tropical
> > cyclones. I understand that I can do something like this using
MODE time
> > domain. However, when I look at the documentation, it looks like
I need
> to
> > use the actual model grib data to do this. Maybe like the current
GFS
> > file, and then yesterdays' 24 hour forecast file? Is that correct?
> >
> > So, the forecast errors that I'm interested in calculating are
distance
> > from actual forecasted position, and intensity. Can this be done
using
> the
> > *.stat files that MET has already generated?
> >
> > Thanks in advance!
> >
> > Roz
> >
> > --
> > Rosalyn MacCracken
> > Support Scientist
> >
> > Ocean Applications Branch
> > NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> > NCWCP
> > 5830 University Research Ct
> > College Park, MD 20740-3818
> >
> > (p) 301-683-1551
> > rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> >
> >
>
>
--
Rosalyn MacCracken
Support Scientist
Ocean Applications Branch
NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
NCWCP
5830 University Research Ct
College Park, MD 20740-3818
(p) 301-683-1551
rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
------------------------------------------------
Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE time domain
From: Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate
Time: Fri Nov 09 07:41:37 2018
Hi John,
I got clarification from Guang Ping about how to use the ATCF file,
and how
to intrepret the forecast lead hour. So, for example, if I use the
lat/lon at 2018010206 F024, then my verified position is at
2018010306
F000.
So, I think I don't need to use the tc_stat tools, and can just
manipulate
this file with my python script.
Thanks for the input anyway. You can close the ticket. :-)
Roz
On Fri, Nov 9, 2018 at 8:16 AM, Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate <
rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov> wrote:
> Hi John,
>
> I've actually talked to Guang Ping. Guang Ping pointed me to a
website
> where the columns were defined, and sent me 2 powerpoint files
related to
> the work at EMC, but, didn't offer much else help. I had talked to
Mike
> Erickson (WPC), and he was the one that suggested I use MODE.
>
> Guang Ping did give me the output ATCF track file, but, I'm really
not
> sure what I can do with this file. You seem to know alot about this
file.
> The storms seem to be very short-lived, only having observations for
about
> 4-6 cycles. I did see that some of the storms have lat/lon
associated with
> forecast lead hours (f006, f024, etc). So, I'm not sure what this
lat/lons
> are...I was thinking that if there are lat/lon associated with f024,
then,
> this is the 24 hour forcasted position, but, there isn't a validated
24
> hour lat/lon point in the file, so, how do I know this lat/lon is
correct?
>
> Anyway, it seems like there may be info in the ATCF file that I can
use.
> I just need to figure out how to use it. What is tc_stat tools?
Does that
> only require this ATCF file, or do I need other data? I'll look at
the
> documentation while I'm waiting for your answer...
>
> Thanks!
>
> Roz
>
> On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 7:08 PM, John Halley Gotway via RT <
> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
>> Roz,
>>
>> I see that you're interested in verifying the track and intensity
for
>> extra-tropical cyclones. Guang Ping Lou is a scientist at NOAA-EMC
who
>> has
>> been doing this for a while. Here's his website:
>>
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/index.html
>>
>> He runs a modified version of the hurricane tracker to track
>> extra-tropical
>> cyclones across the GRIB model output. Then he runs the tracker on
the
>> 0-hour model analyses to generate analysis (i.e. observation)
tracks.
>> Then
>> he applies logic to compare the forecast and observed tracks to
determine
>> which ones are for the same storm.
>>
>> We've worked with him to run the ATCF output track files through
MET's
>> tc_pairs and tc_stat tools to quantify the track and intensity
errors.
>>
>> Additionally, this logic formed the basis for the track and
intensity
>> storm-relative use case in METplus.
>>
>> In principle, mtd could be use to apply similar logic. However, we
have
>> actually done so yet. There is likely a lot of sophistication in
storm
>> identification and tracking in the hurricane tracker that don't
exist in
>> mtd.
>>
>> I'd encourage you to talk to Guang Ping about areas of overlap and
>> collaboration.
>>
>> Thanks,
>> John Halley Gotway
>>
>> On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 1:58 PM Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate
via RT
>> <
>> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> > Thu Nov 08 13:57:59 2018: Request 87714 was acted upon.
>> > Transaction: Ticket created by rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>> > Queue: met_help
>> > Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using
MODE time
>> > domain
>> > Owner: Nobody
>> > Requestors: rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>> > Status: new
>> > Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=87714 >
>> >
>> >
>> > Hi,
>> >
>> > I was trying to generate forecast track errors for extra-tropical
>> > cyclones. I understand that I can do something like this using
MODE
>> time
>> > domain. However, when I look at the documentation, it looks like
I
>> need to
>> > use the actual model grib data to do this. Maybe like the
current GFS
>> > file, and then yesterdays' 24 hour forecast file? Is that
correct?
>> >
>> > So, the forecast errors that I'm interested in calculating are
distance
>> > from actual forecasted position, and intensity. Can this be done
using
>> the
>> > *.stat files that MET has already generated?
>> >
>> > Thanks in advance!
>> >
>> > Roz
>> >
>> > --
>> > Rosalyn MacCracken
>> > Support Scientist
>> >
>> > Ocean Applications Branch
>> > NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
>> > NCWCP
>> > 5830 University Research Ct
>> > College Park, MD 20740-3818
>> >
>> > (p) 301-683-1551
>> > rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Rosalyn MacCracken
> Support Scientist
>
> Ocean Applications Branch
> NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> NCWCP
> 5830 University Research Ct
> College Park, MD 20740-3818
>
> (p) 301-683-1551
> rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>
--
Rosalyn MacCracken
Support Scientist
Ocean Applications Branch
NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
NCWCP
5830 University Research Ct
College Park, MD 20740-3818
(p) 301-683-1551
rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
------------------------------------------------
Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using MODE time domain
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Fri Nov 09 09:18:17 2018
Roz,
Great, glad you got the help you needed.
Let me briefly clarify about the MET tools...
- The tc_pairs tool reads ATCF files for both the forecast and
analysis
tracks. It matches each forecast track to an analysis track and for
the
points they have in common, it computes the track errors (along,
cross, and
total track errors). It writes paired info to an output ASCII file
with
suffix ".tcst".
- The tc_stat tool reads one or more ".tcst" files, applies whatever
filtering criteria you'd like, and then runs analysis jobs on the
filtered
data.
- The MET release includes a sample R-script named "plot_tcmpr.R"
which
reads ".tcst" files as input, call tc_stat to filter the data, and
then
makes plots of the results.
The tc_stat tool is analogous to the stat_analysis tool for
filtering/aggregating/summarizing the results of other MET tools.
If you have ATCF data files, you may (or may not) find the tc_pairs
and
tc_stat tools to be useful.
I'll go ahead and resolve this ticket.
Thanks,
John
On Fri, Nov 9, 2018 at 7:42 AM Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate via
RT <
met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=87714 >
>
> Hi John,
>
> I got clarification from Guang Ping about how to use the ATCF file,
and how
> to intrepret the forecast lead hour. So, for example, if I use the
> lat/lon at 2018010206 F024, then my verified position is at
2018010306
> F000.
>
> So, I think I don't need to use the tc_stat tools, and can just
manipulate
> this file with my python script.
>
> Thanks for the input anyway. You can close the ticket. :-)
>
> Roz
>
> On Fri, Nov 9, 2018 at 8:16 AM, Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA Affiliate
<
> rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Hi John,
> >
> > I've actually talked to Guang Ping. Guang Ping pointed me to a
website
> > where the columns were defined, and sent me 2 powerpoint files
related to
> > the work at EMC, but, didn't offer much else help. I had talked
to Mike
> > Erickson (WPC), and he was the one that suggested I use MODE.
> >
> > Guang Ping did give me the output ATCF track file, but, I'm really
not
> > sure what I can do with this file. You seem to know alot about
this file.
> > The storms seem to be very short-lived, only having observations
for
> about
> > 4-6 cycles. I did see that some of the storms have lat/lon
associated
> with
> > forecast lead hours (f006, f024, etc). So, I'm not sure what this
> lat/lons
> > are...I was thinking that if there are lat/lon associated with
f024,
> then,
> > this is the 24 hour forcasted position, but, there isn't a
validated 24
> > hour lat/lon point in the file, so, how do I know this lat/lon is
> correct?
> >
> > Anyway, it seems like there may be info in the ATCF file that I
can use.
> > I just need to figure out how to use it. What is tc_stat tools?
Does
> that
> > only require this ATCF file, or do I need other data? I'll look
at the
> > documentation while I'm waiting for your answer...
> >
> > Thanks!
> >
> > Roz
> >
> > On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 7:08 PM, John Halley Gotway via RT <
> > met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
> >
> >> Roz,
> >>
> >> I see that you're interested in verifying the track and intensity
for
> >> extra-tropical cyclones. Guang Ping Lou is a scientist at NOAA-
EMC who
> >> has
> >> been doing this for a while. Here's his website:
> >>
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/index.html
> >>
> >> He runs a modified version of the hurricane tracker to track
> >> extra-tropical
> >> cyclones across the GRIB model output. Then he runs the tracker
on the
> >> 0-hour model analyses to generate analysis (i.e. observation)
tracks.
> >> Then
> >> he applies logic to compare the forecast and observed tracks to
> determine
> >> which ones are for the same storm.
> >>
> >> We've worked with him to run the ATCF output track files through
MET's
> >> tc_pairs and tc_stat tools to quantify the track and intensity
errors.
> >>
> >> Additionally, this logic formed the basis for the track and
intensity
> >> storm-relative use case in METplus.
> >>
> >> In principle, mtd could be use to apply similar logic. However,
we have
> >> actually done so yet. There is likely a lot of sophistication in
storm
> >> identification and tracking in the hurricane tracker that don't
exist in
> >> mtd.
> >>
> >> I'd encourage you to talk to Guang Ping about areas of overlap
and
> >> collaboration.
> >>
> >> Thanks,
> >> John Halley Gotway
> >>
> >> On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 1:58 PM Rosalyn MacCracken - NOAA
Affiliate via
> RT
> >> <
> >> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
> >>
> >> >
> >> > Thu Nov 08 13:57:59 2018: Request 87714 was acted upon.
> >> > Transaction: Ticket created by rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> >> > Queue: met_help
> >> > Subject: question on extra-tropical cyclone tracker using
MODE
> time
> >> > domain
> >> > Owner: Nobody
> >> > Requestors: rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> >> > Status: new
> >> > Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=87714
> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Hi,
> >> >
> >> > I was trying to generate forecast track errors for extra-
tropical
> >> > cyclones. I understand that I can do something like this using
MODE
> >> time
> >> > domain. However, when I look at the documentation, it looks
like I
> >> need to
> >> > use the actual model grib data to do this. Maybe like the
current GFS
> >> > file, and then yesterdays' 24 hour forecast file? Is that
correct?
> >> >
> >> > So, the forecast errors that I'm interested in calculating are
> distance
> >> > from actual forecasted position, and intensity. Can this be
done
> using
> >> the
> >> > *.stat files that MET has already generated?
> >> >
> >> > Thanks in advance!
> >> >
> >> > Roz
> >> >
> >> > --
> >> > Rosalyn MacCracken
> >> > Support Scientist
> >> >
> >> > Ocean Applications Branch
> >> > NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> >> > NCWCP
> >> > 5830 University Research Ct
> >> > College Park, MD 20740-3818
> >> >
> >> > (p) 301-683-1551
> >> > rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> > --
> > Rosalyn MacCracken
> > Support Scientist
> >
> > Ocean Applications Branch
> > NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> > NCWCP
> > 5830 University Research Ct
> > College Park, MD 20740-3818
> >
> > (p) 301-683-1551
> > rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
> >
>
>
>
> --
> Rosalyn MacCracken
> Support Scientist
>
> Ocean Applications Branch
> NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center
> NCWCP
> 5830 University Research Ct
> College Park, MD 20740-3818
>
> (p) 301-683-1551
> rosalyn.maccracken at noaa.gov
>
>
------------------------------------------------
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