[Met_help] [rt.rap.ucar.edu #70393] History for MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
John Halley Gotway via RT
met_help at ucar.edu
Tue Jan 27 09:36:21 MST 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------
Initial Request
----------------------------------------------------------------
Dear MET Help,
I'm curious if MET-TC can compute error statistics for "intensity change".
I'm able to successfully filter my TC_PAIRS output to look for RI/RW cases,
which is useful. However, I'd like to know how poorly models perform at
simulating intensity changes. My guess is that this specific analysis is
not currently an option in MET-TC (since I did not see a relevant column in
the TC_PAIRS output). *Do you know if intensity change analysis is an
option in MET-TC?*
If it is not currently an option, I'd like to compute AMODEL and BMODEL
intensity changes (call them "A_WIND_CHG" and "B_WIND_CHG",
respectively) and add these columns to the TC_PAIRS output. *Do you know if
I can add columns of data to the TC_PAIRS output and use TC_STAT to compute
error statistics on these added columns?* That way, I could compute the
error statistics by invoking *"-column A_WIND_CHG"* in my TC_STAT summary
job call.
Thanks in advance,
Gus Alaka
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Complete Ticket History
----------------------------------------------------------------
Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Thu Jan 15 15:22:14 2015
Gus,
Good question - we are currently developing a new job type in tc_stat
call
"rirw". That job identifies rapid intensification or weakening events
in
the ADECK and BDECK and uses them to populate a 2x2 contingency table.
The
job writes out the contingency table counts, the corresponding
statistics,
and the individual matched pair information.
We've added some flexibility in how to define the event. You can
choose
separately for the ADECK and BDECK...
(1) The time window over which the event is computed (default is
24-hours).
(2) The wind speed change required for the event (default is >=30
kts).
You would use <=-30 to define rapid weakening.
(3) Whether you want the *exact* intensity difference over the 24-
hours,
for example, or the *maximum* difference in that time.
You can also specify a matching time window - meaning that if RI
occurred
in the ADECK but occurred 6-hours later in the BDECK, count that as a
hit
rather than a false alarm.
Does this sound like the type of functionality you need?
If so, I could probably send you a beta version of the code sometime
next
week to try out.
Thanks,
John
On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 2:29 PM, Ghassan Alaka - NOAA Affiliate via RT
<
met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> Thu Jan 15 14:29:20 2015: Request 70393 was acted upon.
> Transaction: Ticket created by ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> Queue: met_help
> Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
> Owner: Nobody
> Requestors: ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> Status: new
> Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=70393 >
>
>
> Dear MET Help,
>
> I'm curious if MET-TC can compute error statistics for "intensity
change".
> I'm able to successfully filter my TC_PAIRS output to look for RI/RW
cases,
> which is useful. However, I'd like to know how poorly models perform
at
> simulating intensity changes. My guess is that this specific
analysis is
> not currently an option in MET-TC (since I did not see a relevant
column in
> the TC_PAIRS output). *Do you know if intensity change analysis is
an
> option in MET-TC?*
>
> If it is not currently an option, I'd like to compute AMODEL and
BMODEL
> intensity changes (call them "A_WIND_CHG" and "B_WIND_CHG",
> respectively) and add these columns to the TC_PAIRS output. *Do you
know if
> I can add columns of data to the TC_PAIRS output and use TC_STAT to
compute
> error statistics on these added columns?* That way, I could compute
the
> error statistics by invoking *"-column A_WIND_CHG"* in my TC_STAT
summary
> job call.
>
> Thanks in advance,
> Gus Alaka
>
>
------------------------------------------------
Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
From: Ghassan Alaka - NOAA Affiliate
Time: Fri Jan 16 10:27:00 2015
Hi John,
That is exactly the type of function I need! Let me know when you can
make
the beta available.
Thanks,
Gus
On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 5:22 PM, John Halley Gotway via RT <
met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
> Gus,
>
> Good question - we are currently developing a new job type in
tc_stat call
> "rirw". That job identifies rapid intensification or weakening
events in
> the ADECK and BDECK and uses them to populate a 2x2 contingency
table. The
> job writes out the contingency table counts, the corresponding
statistics,
> and the individual matched pair information.
>
> We've added some flexibility in how to define the event. You can
choose
> separately for the ADECK and BDECK...
> (1) The time window over which the event is computed (default is
> 24-hours).
> (2) The wind speed change required for the event (default is >=30
kts).
> You would use <=-30 to define rapid weakening.
> (3) Whether you want the *exact* intensity difference over the
24-hours,
> for example, or the *maximum* difference in that time.
>
> You can also specify a matching time window - meaning that if RI
occurred
> in the ADECK but occurred 6-hours later in the BDECK, count that as
a hit
> rather than a false alarm.
>
> Does this sound like the type of functionality you need?
>
> If so, I could probably send you a beta version of the code sometime
next
> week to try out.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 2:29 PM, Ghassan Alaka - NOAA Affiliate via
RT <
> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> >
> > Thu Jan 15 14:29:20 2015: Request 70393 was acted upon.
> > Transaction: Ticket created by ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> > Queue: met_help
> > Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
> > Owner: Nobody
> > Requestors: ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> > Status: new
> > Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=70393 >
> >
> >
> > Dear MET Help,
> >
> > I'm curious if MET-TC can compute error statistics for "intensity
> change".
> > I'm able to successfully filter my TC_PAIRS output to look for
RI/RW
> cases,
> > which is useful. However, I'd like to know how poorly models
perform at
> > simulating intensity changes. My guess is that this specific
analysis is
> > not currently an option in MET-TC (since I did not see a relevant
column
> in
> > the TC_PAIRS output). *Do you know if intensity change analysis is
an
> > option in MET-TC?*
> >
> > If it is not currently an option, I'd like to compute AMODEL and
BMODEL
> > intensity changes (call them "A_WIND_CHG" and "B_WIND_CHG",
> > respectively) and add these columns to the TC_PAIRS output. *Do
you know
> if
> > I can add columns of data to the TC_PAIRS output and use TC_STAT
to
> compute
> > error statistics on these added columns?* That way, I could
compute the
> > error statistics by invoking *"-column A_WIND_CHG"* in my TC_STAT
summary
> > job call.
> >
> > Thanks in advance,
> > Gus Alaka
> >
> >
>
>
------------------------------------------------
Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Fri Jan 16 16:36:27 2015
Gus,
I just posted a development version of MET on our anonymous ftp site
here:
ftp://ftp.rap.ucar.edu/incoming/irap/met_help/met-
rev2603.20150116.tar.gz
This version includes support for the tc_stat job type named "rirw"
for
rapid intensification and weakening. Please take a look at the file
data/config/README_TC and search for "rirw". That'll describe the
job.
Here's an example of how you might run it:
tc_stat -job rirw -lookin path/to/tc_pairs/output -out_line_type
CTC,CTS,MPR
That'll create output similar what I've attached to this message. I
think
case I'm only looking at a single initialization for one model. If
you run
this same job, but add the "-by AMODEL" option, it'll run it for each
unique model name it finds in your tc_pairs output.
Hope that helps get you going.
Thanks,
John
On Fri, Jan 16, 2015 at 10:27 AM, Ghassan Alaka - NOAA Affiliate via
RT <
met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> <URL: https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=70393 >
>
> Hi John,
>
> That is exactly the type of function I need! Let me know when you
can make
> the beta available.
>
> Thanks,
> Gus
>
> On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 5:22 PM, John Halley Gotway via RT <
> met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
>
> > Gus,
> >
> > Good question - we are currently developing a new job type in
tc_stat
> call
> > "rirw". That job identifies rapid intensification or weakening
events in
> > the ADECK and BDECK and uses them to populate a 2x2 contingency
table.
> The
> > job writes out the contingency table counts, the corresponding
> statistics,
> > and the individual matched pair information.
> >
> > We've added some flexibility in how to define the event. You can
choose
> > separately for the ADECK and BDECK...
> > (1) The time window over which the event is computed (default
is
> > 24-hours).
> > (2) The wind speed change required for the event (default is
>=30
> kts).
> > You would use <=-30 to define rapid weakening.
> > (3) Whether you want the *exact* intensity difference over the
> 24-hours,
> > for example, or the *maximum* difference in that time.
> >
> > You can also specify a matching time window - meaning that if RI
occurred
> > in the ADECK but occurred 6-hours later in the BDECK, count that
as a hit
> > rather than a false alarm.
> >
> > Does this sound like the type of functionality you need?
> >
> > If so, I could probably send you a beta version of the code
sometime next
> > week to try out.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > John
> >
> >
> > On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 2:29 PM, Ghassan Alaka - NOAA Affiliate
via RT <
> > met_help at ucar.edu> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Thu Jan 15 14:29:20 2015: Request 70393 was acted upon.
> > > Transaction: Ticket created by ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> > > Queue: met_help
> > > Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
> > > Owner: Nobody
> > > Requestors: ghassan.alaka at noaa.gov
> > > Status: new
> > > Ticket <URL:
https://rt.rap.ucar.edu/rt/Ticket/Display.html?id=70393
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Dear MET Help,
> > >
> > > I'm curious if MET-TC can compute error statistics for
"intensity
> > change".
> > > I'm able to successfully filter my TC_PAIRS output to look for
RI/RW
> > cases,
> > > which is useful. However, I'd like to know how poorly models
perform at
> > > simulating intensity changes. My guess is that this specific
analysis
> is
> > > not currently an option in MET-TC (since I did not see a
relevant
> column
> > in
> > > the TC_PAIRS output). *Do you know if intensity change analysis
is an
> > > option in MET-TC?*
> > >
> > > If it is not currently an option, I'd like to compute AMODEL and
BMODEL
> > > intensity changes (call them "A_WIND_CHG" and "B_WIND_CHG",
> > > respectively) and add these columns to the TC_PAIRS output. *Do
you
> know
> > if
> > > I can add columns of data to the TC_PAIRS output and use TC_STAT
to
> > compute
> > > error statistics on these added columns?* That way, I could
compute the
> > > error statistics by invoking *"-column A_WIND_CHG"* in my
TC_STAT
> summary
> > > job call.
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance,
> > > Gus Alaka
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
------------------------------------------------
Subject: MET-TC --> Error Statistics for Intensity Change
From: John Halley Gotway
Time: Fri Jan 16 16:36:27 2015
JOB_LIST: -job rirw -amodel HWFI -init_inc 20110820_060000
-match_points true -rapid_inten_time 240000 -rapid_inten_exact true
-rapid_inten_thresh_adeck >=30.000 -rapid_inten_thresh_bdeck >=25.000
-rapid_inten_window 000000 -out_line_type CTC -out_line_type CTS
-out_line_type MPR -out_alpha 0.05000
COL_NAME: ATIME BTIME AEXACT BEXACT ATHRESH BTHRESH WINDOW TOTAL
FY_OY FY_ON FN_OY FN_ON
RIRW_CTC: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 8
0 1 1 6
COL_NAME: ATIME BTIME AEXACT BEXACT ATHRESH BTHRESH WINDOW TOTAL
BASER BASER_NCL BASER_NCU BASER_BCL BASER_BCU FMEAN FMEAN_NCL
FMEAN_NCU FMEAN_BCL FMEAN_BCU ACC ACC_NCL ACC_NCU ACC_BCL ACC_BCU
FBIAS FBIAS_BCL FBIAS_BCU PODY PODY_NCL PODY_NCU PODY_BCL PODY_BCU
PODN PODN_NCL PODN_NCU PODN_BCL PODN_BCU POFD POFD_NCL POFD_NCU
POFD_BCL POFD_BCU FAR FAR_NCL FAR_NCU FAR_BCL FAR_BCU CSI
CSI_NCL CSI_NCU CSI_BCL CSI_BCU GSS GSS_BCL GSS_BCU HK
HK_NCL HK_NCU HK_BCL HK_BCU HSS HSS_BCL HSS_BCU ODDS ODDS_NCL
ODDS_NCU ODDS_BCL ODDS_BCU LODDS LODDS_NCL LODDS_NCU LODDS_BCL
LODDS_BCU ORSS ORSS_NCL ORSS_NCU ORSS_BCL ORSS_BCU EDS EDS_NCL
EDS_NCU EDS_BCL EDS_BCU SEDS SEDS_NCL SEDS_NCU SEDS_BCL SEDS_BCU EDI
EDI_NCL EDI_NCU EDI_BCL EDI_BCU SEDI SEDI_NCL SEDI_NCU SEDI_BCL
SEDI_BCU BAGSS BAGSS_BCL BAGSS_BCU
RIRW_CTS: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 8
0.12500 0.02242 0.47089 NA NA 0.12500 0.02242
0.47089 NA NA 0.75000 0.40928 0.92852 NA NA
1.00000 NA NA 0.00000 0.00000 0.32441 NA
NA 0.85714 0.51075 0.97182 NA NA 0.14286 0.02818
0.48925 NA NA 1.00000 0.67559 1.00000 NA NA
0.00000 0.00000 0.32441 NA NA -0.06667 NA NA
-0.14286 -0.57734 0.29163 NA NA -0.14286 NA NA
0.00000 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA -1.00000 NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA
COL_NAME: ATIME BTIME AEXACT BEXACT ATHRESH BTHRESH WINDOW AMODEL
BMODEL STORM_ID INIT LEAD VALID AMAX_WIND_PRV
AMAX_WIND_CUR AMAX_WIND_DLT ARIRW BMAX_WIND_PRV BMAX_WIND_CUR
BMAX_WIND_DLT BRIRW CATEGORY
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 240000 20110821_060000 NA
36 NA NA NA 45 NA NA
NA
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 360000 20110821_180000 NA
38 NA NA NA 50 NA NA
NA
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 480000 20110822_060000 36
48 12 false 45 65 20 false
FN_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 600000 20110822_180000 38
64 26 false 50 75 25 true
FN_OY
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 720000 20110823_060000 48
87 39 true 65 80 15 false
FY_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 840000 20110823_180000 64
90 26 false 75 80 5 false
FN_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 960000 20110824_060000 87
84 -3 false 80 95 15 false
FN_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 1080000 20110824_180000 90
82 -8 false 80 100 20 false
FN_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 1200000 20110825_060000 84
79 -5 false 95 95 0 false
FN_ON
RIRW_MPR: 240000 240000 true true >=30.000 >=25.000 000000 HWFI
BEST AL092011 20110820_060000 1320000 20110825_180000 82
73 -9 false 100 90 -10 false
FN_ON
------------------------------------------------
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