<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">FYI</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Andrew Winters</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:andrew.c.winters@colorado.edu">andrew.c.winters@colorado.edu</a>></span><br>Date: Thu, Oct 12, 2023 at 7:29 AM<br>Subject: Re: ATOC Colloquium: Friday, October 13 @ 11am – Dr. Isla Simpson – SEEC S228 and Zoom<br>To: <a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@colorado.edu">atoc-faculty@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@colorado.edu">atoc-faculty@colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@colorado.edu">atoc-researchers@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@colorado.edu">atoc-researchers@colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:atoc-majors@colorado.edu">atoc-majors@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-majors@colorado.edu">atoc-majors@colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:atoc-minors@colorado.edu">atoc-minors@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-minors@colorado.edu">atoc-minors@colorado.edu</a>>, ATOC Graduate Students <<a href="mailto:atoc-students@colorado.edu">atoc-students@colorado.edu</a>>, <a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu</a>><br>Cc: Isla Simpson <<a href="mailto:islas@ucar.edu">islas@ucar.edu</a>><br></div><br><br><div class="msg1294273589205107046">
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<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:black;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px">Hi
everyone,<br>
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<div style="margin:0px">A reminder that the next <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span> <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span><span style="margin:0px"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span>will
be held in a hybrid format on<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Friday, October 13 from 11a–12p MT over Zoom and in SEEC S228.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></b>This
week's <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium</span></span></span></span> will
feature<span style="margin:0px"> a seminar from<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Dr. Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)</b><span style="margin:0px"> </span>entitled,<span style="margin:0px"> </span><i>"Observed
Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate Models</i></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white">". The zoom login information and an abstract for the </span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium</span></span><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"> are
provided below. Please join us for conversation beginning at 10:45am MT, and stay afterwards for a lunch catered by Illegal Pete's.</span></div>
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<div style="margin:0px">We look forward to seeing you on Friday!<br>
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<div style="margin:0px">-The<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px"> </span>Committee</div>
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<b>Observed Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate Models</b></div>
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<span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white">Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)</span><br>
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Earth System Models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society must adapt to so we must continually assess whether these models are accurately representing the processes of relevance to ensure such projections are reliable. Here
we will compare historical trends in near surface water vapor since 1980 between observation-based datasets and Earth System Models from the CMIP6 archive. It will be shown that there is a major discrepancy in how atmospheric water vapor has changed over
this time period with observation-based trends differing from the model distribution in a manner that cannot be explained by historical sea surface temperature trends or internal variability alone. This discrepancy displays close links with climatological
aridity and is apparent in arid and semi-arid regions of the world throughout the year and only in the most arid months of the more humid regions. In these dry regions or seasons, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric
water vapor, on average, over the last four decades that is close to the magnitude expected based on Clausius Clapeyron scaling. However, in observation-based data, this rise in atmospheric water vapor has not happened with trends in near surface humidity
being near zero, on average. This suggests that the availability of moisture, whether that be from the land surface or transport, is lower in reality than in models in these dry regions, such that the rise in atmospheric water vapor does not keep up with
the increasing atmospheric demand. This indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities that could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, as well as projections for fire hazard and heat extremes, moving forward.<br>
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<u>Zoom login Information:</u></div>
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<b>Topic: ATOC Colloquium</b>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Time: Oct 13, 2023 11:00 AM Mountain Time (US and Canada)</b></div>
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<div style="margin:0px"><b><a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579" rel="noopener noreferrer" id="m_1294273589205107046OWAb0b5998c-0adf-443a-bb6d-23bf745398e2" style="margin:0px" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579</a></b></div>
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<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white"><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">_______________________________________________________</span></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:15px;text-align:start;display:inline!important;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"></span></div>
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<span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-size:15px;font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;background-color:white"></span><span style="font-family:"Segoe UI","Segoe UI Web (West European)","Segoe UI",-apple-system,"system-ui",Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:15px;text-align:start;display:inline!important;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"></span>
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-align:start;color:black;background-color:white">
<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"><b>Andrew C. Winters</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Assistant Professor</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">University of Colorado Boulder</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">311 UCB</span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">, Boulder,
CO 80309-0311</span></div>
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<font face="Calibri Light,Helvetica Light,sans-serif"><i><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white">CU
Boulder acknowledges that it is located on the traditional territories and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused devastating and lasting impacts.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(2,119,189);background-color:white" target="_blank">Full
CU Boulder land acknowledgment</a><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white"> </span></i></font></div>
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<div id="m_1294273589205107046divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Andrew Winters<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, October 9, 2023 7:57 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-faculty@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-faculty@colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-researchers@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-researchers@colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:atoc-majors@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-majors@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-majors@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-majors@colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:atoc-minors@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-minors@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-minors@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-minors@colorado.edu</a>>; ATOC Graduate Students
<<a href="mailto:atoc-students@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-students@colorado.edu</a>>; <a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu</a> <<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu" target="_blank">atoc-colloquium@colorado.edu</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Isla Simpson <<a href="mailto:islas@ucar.edu" target="_blank">islas@ucar.edu</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> ATOC Colloquium: Friday, October 13 @ 11am – Dr. Isla Simpson – SEEC S228 and Zoom</font>
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<span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px;color:black;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="font-size:15px;margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="font-size:12pt;margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span style="margin:0px">Hi
everyone,<br>
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The next <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span> <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span><span style="margin:0px"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span>will
be held in a hybrid format on<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Friday, October 13 from 11a–12p MT
over Zoom and in SEEC S228.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></b>This week's <span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">colloquium</span></span></span></span> will
feature<span style="margin:0px"> a seminar from<span style="margin:0px"> </span><b>Dr.
Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)</b><span style="margin:0px"> </span>entitled,<span style="margin:0px"> </span><i>"Observed
Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate Models</i></span><span style="background-color:white">". The zoom login information and an abstract for the </span><span style="background-color:white"><span>colloquium</span></span><span style="background-color:white"> are
provided below. Please join us for conversation beginning at 10:45am MT, and stay afterwards for a lunch catered by Illegal Pete's.</span></div>
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We look forward to seeing you on Friday!<br>
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-The<span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">ATOC</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px"> </span><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px">Colloquium</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="margin:0px"> </span>Committee</div>
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<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><b>Observed Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate Models</b></div>
<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><span><span style="background-color:white">Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)</span><br>
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Earth System Models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society must adapt to so we must continually assess whether these models are accurately representing the processes of relevance to ensure such projections are reliable. Here
we will compare historical trends in near surface water vapor since 1980 between observation-based datasets and Earth System Models from the CMIP6 archive. It will be shown that there is a major discrepancy in how atmospheric water vapor has changed over
this time period with observation-based trends differing from the model distribution in a manner that cannot be explained by historical sea surface temperature trends or internal variability alone. This discrepancy displays close links with climatological
aridity and is apparent in arid and semi-arid regions of the world throughout the year and only in the most arid months of the more humid regions. In these dry regions or seasons, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric
water vapor, on average, over the last four decades that is close to the magnitude expected based on Clausius Clapeyron scaling. However, in observation-based data, this rise in atmospheric water vapor has not happened with trends in near surface humidity
being near zero, on average. This suggests that the availability of moisture, whether that be from the land surface or transport, is lower in reality than in models in these dry regions, such that the rise in atmospheric water vapor does not keep up with
the increasing atmospheric demand. This indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities that could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, as well as projections for fire hazard and heat extremes, moving forward.<br>
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<div style="margin:0px;background-color:white"><u>Zoom login Information:</u></div>
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<b>Topic: ATOC Colloquium</b>
<div style="margin:0px"><b>Time: Oct 13, 2023 11:00 AM Mountain Time (US and Canada)</b></div>
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<div style="margin:0px"><b><a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579" id="m_1294273589205107046OWAc3ff254e-4d8a-19aa-3a98-7d9597148373" style="margin:0px" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579</a>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px"><b>Andrew C. Winters</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Assistant Professor</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">University of Colorado Boulder</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">311 UCB</span><span style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif;margin:0px">, Boulder,
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Boulder acknowledges that it is located on the traditional territories and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused devastating and lasting impacts.<span style="margin:0px"> </span></span><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement" id="m_1294273589205107046OWA489659d3-2391-84d0-b109-5d0c7a2ce3a3" style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;outline:0px;color:rgb(2,119,189);background-color:white" target="_blank">Full
CU Boulder land acknowledgment</a><span style="font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;color:rgb(17,17,17);background-color:white"> </span></i></font></div>
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</div></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div><span class="gmail_signature_prefix">-- </span><br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Scott Briggs (he/him/his)</span><br></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000">Administrator</font></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000"><br></font></div><div dir="ltr"><font face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" color="#000000">Advanced Study Program<br>Education, Engagement and Early-Career Development<br>National Center For Atmospheric Research</font></div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif" size="1" color="#000000"><i style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">phone: 303.497.1607</i></font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>