<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">FYI</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Julia M. Moriarty</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:Julia.Moriarty@colorado.edu">Julia.Moriarty@colorado.edu</a>></span><br>Date: Fri, Apr 7, 2023 at 3:01 PM<br>Subject: Re: ATOC Distinguished Lecture by Dr. Amy Clement on April 10<br>To: ATOC Faculty <<a href="mailto:atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-faculty@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <<a href="mailto:atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-researchers@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <<a href="mailto:atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-students@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <<a href="mailto:atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-majors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <<a href="mailto:Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu">Atoc-minors@lists.colorado.edu</a>>, <<a href="mailto:atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu">atoc-colloquium@lists.colorado.edu</a>><br>Cc: Sara Sanchez <<a href="mailto:sara.sanchez@colorado.edu">sara.sanchez@colorado.edu</a>>, Chris Wyburn Powell <<a href="mailto:chwy8767@colorado.edu">chwy8767@colorado.edu</a>><br></div><br><br><div dir="ltr"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"><b>Hi all, </b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"><b><br></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"><b>A reminder that </b></font><b style="font-size:large">Dr. Amy Clement's lecture, titled "Recent Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is Mostly Forced", </b><b style="font-size:large">will be on Monday, April 10 in SEEC S228, from 10:30 - 11:30 am, and on zoom (see link at end of the forwarded email below).</b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="font-size:large"><br></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="font-size:large">The ATOC Fest and Distinguished Lecture Committee</b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="font-size:large">(Julia, Sara, and Chris)</b></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"> <u></u><u></u></font></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"><b> </b></font></p></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Apr 2, 2023 at 10:35 AM Julia M. Moriarty <<a href="mailto:Julia.Moriarty@colorado.edu" target="_blank">Julia.Moriarty@colorado.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4">We are excited to announce the Spring 2023 ATOC Distinguished Lecture. <u></u><u></u><b>The lecture will be on Monday, April 10 in SEEC S228, from 10:30 - 11:30 am, and on zoom (see link at end of email).</b></font></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"> <u></u><u></u></font></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="4"><b>Dr. Amy Clement's will be titled "Recent Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is Mostly Forced". </b>More information about Dr. <span>Clement</span> can be found at this <a href="https://people.miami.edu/profile/b395dd6dac6f22cb1fefde66b8cef6f2" target="_blank">link</a> .</font></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt"> <br><br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i><b>Co-authors: </b>Chengfei He, Mark
Cane, Sydney Kramer, Jeremy Klavans, Lisa Murphy, and Tyler Fenske</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i> <b>Abstract:</b></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i>How much of regional climate variability is due to
anthropogenic forcing? It is a question
of both time and space scales. On interannual timescales and local spatial
scales, most of the variability is presumably internal; on global, centennial
timescales, it is mostly forced. Then we are left with this large grey area of
regional, decadal-to-multidecadal variability, where the relative magnitude of
the internal and forced components is not known. </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i> </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i>In this paper, we dive into the question of the relative
contributions of internal ‘noise’ and externally forced ‘signal’ to the AMV. To
do this we use a hierarchy of climate models including simple heuristic models,
idealized dynamical models, comprehensive earth system models, and variants of
earth system models with physical processes disabled. These models are put to
the experimental test of simulating observations using large ensembles with
historical and future forcing, which allows us to formally define the signal to
noise ratio. We show that prior to 1950, the AMV is largely consistent with
variability arising from coupling between the ocean and atmosphere internal to
the climate system. However, after 1950, the AMV, its impacts, and the
relationship between the two is largely forced. </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i> </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><i>We will further discuss the implications of these results
more broadly in the context of interpreting ‘signal’ and ‘noise’ in large-scale
modes of variability in both climate models and observations. </i></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> </p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt">Cheers,</span><u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt">ATOC's Fest and Distinguished Lecture Committee</span><u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt">(Julia Moriarty, Sara Sanchez, and Chris Wyburn Powell)</span><u></u><u></u></p></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>----------------------- Zoom Link -----------------------------------------------------</div><div><br></div><div>Julia Moriarty is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.<br><br>Topic: ATOC Distinguished Lecture<br><b><font size="4"><br>Join Zoom Meeting<br><a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/93526110409" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/93526110409</a><br>Passcode: ATOC</font></b></div><div><br></div><div>Meeting ID: 935 2611 0409<br>Passcode: ATOC<br>One tap mobile<br>+16469313860,,93526110409# US<br>+13017158592,,93526110409# US (Washington DC)<br><br>Dial by your location<br> +1 646 931 3860 US<br> +1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC)<br> +1 305 224 1968 US<br> +1 309 205 3325 US<br> +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)<br> +1 646 558 8656 US (New York)<br> +1 507 473 4847 US<br> +1 564 217 2000 US<br> +1 669 444 9171 US<br> +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)<br> +1 689 278 1000 US<br> +1 719 359 4580 US<br> +1 253 205 0468 US<br> +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)<br> +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)<br> +1 360 209 5623 US<br> +1 386 347 5053 US<br>Meeting ID: 935 2611 0409<br>Find your local number: <a href="https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/aeBD70Gx3C" target="_blank">https://cuboulder.zoom.us/u/aeBD70Gx3C</a><br><br>Join by SIP<br><a href="mailto:93526110409@zoomcrc.com" target="_blank">93526110409@zoomcrc.com</a><br><br>Join by H.323<br>162.255.37.11 (US West)<br>162.255.36.11 (US East)<br>115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai)<br>115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad)<br>213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands)<br>213.244.140.110 (Germany)<br>103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney)<br>103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne)<br>149.137.40.110 (Singapore)<br>64.211.144.160 (Brazil)<br>149.137.68.253 (Mexico)<br>69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto)<br>65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver)<br>207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo)<br>149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka)<br>Meeting ID: 935 2611 0409<br>Passcode: 470790<br><br></div><div><br></div><span>-- </span><br><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font color="#666666">Julia M. Moriarty </font></div><div dir="ltr"><font color="#666666">Assistant Professor</font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">, </span><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">University of Colorado Boulder</span><font color="#666666"><br></font><div><font color="#666666">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC) & </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)</span></div><div><font color="#666666"><a href="https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/labs-groups/coastal-oceanography-lab-group/" target="_blank">https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/labs-groups/coastal-oceanography-lab-group/</a> </font></div><div><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">Office: SEEC N155 | </span><font color="#666666">Phone: (+1) 303-492-4771 </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">(please leave a voice mail) </span><font color="#666666">| </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">@JuliaMMoriarty | she/her</span></div></div><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Helvetica">My work hours may not be your work hours. Please reply in your work hours.</span><br></div></div><div dir="ltr"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div><span>-- </span><br><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font color="#666666">Julia M. Moriarty </font></div><div dir="ltr"><font color="#666666">Assistant Professor</font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">, </span><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">University of Colorado Boulder</span><font color="#666666"><br></font><div><font color="#666666">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC) & </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)</span></div><div><font color="#666666"><a href="https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/labs-groups/coastal-oceanography-lab-group/" target="_blank">https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/labs-groups/coastal-oceanography-lab-group/</a> </font></div><div><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">Office: SEEC N155 | </span><font color="#666666">Phone: (+1) 303-492-4771 </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">(please leave a voice mail) </span><font color="#666666">| </font><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102)">@JuliaMMoriarty | she/her</span></div></div><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Helvetica">My work hours may not be your work hours. Please reply in your work hours.</span><br></div></div><div dir="ltr"></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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