[Grad-postdoc-assn] Fwd: ATOC Colloquium: Friday, October 13 @ 11am – Dr. Isla Simpson – SEEC S228 and Zoom

[Scott Briggs]

FYI

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Andrew Winters <andrew.c.winters at colorado.edu>
Date: Mon, Oct 9, 2023 at 7:58 AM
Subject: ATOC Colloquium: Friday, October 13 @ 11am – Dr. Isla Simpson –
SEEC S228 and Zoom
To: atoc-faculty at colorado.edu <atoc-faculty at colorado.edu>,
atoc-researchers at colorado.edu <atoc-researchers at colorado.edu>,
atoc-majors at colorado.edu <atoc-majors at colorado.edu>,
atoc-minors at colorado.edu <atoc-minors at colorado.edu>, ATOC Graduate Students
<atoc-students at colorado.edu>, atoc-colloquium at colorado.edu <
atoc-colloquium at colorado.edu>
Cc: Isla Simpson <islas at ucar.edu>


Hi everyone,

The next ATOC Colloquium will be held in a hybrid format on *Friday,
October 13 from 11a–12p MT over Zoom and in SEEC S228. *This week's
colloquium will feature a seminar from *Dr. Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)*
entitled, *"Observed Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate
Models*". The zoom login information and an abstract for the colloquium are
provided below. Please join us for conversation beginning at 10:45am MT,
and stay afterwards for a lunch catered by Illegal Pete's.
We look forward to seeing you on Friday!

-The ATOC Colloquium Committee

_________________________________________________

*Observed Humidity Trends in Dry Regions Contradict Climate Models*
Isla Simpson (NCAR/CGD)

Earth System Models are our primary tool for projecting the future
hydroclimate that society must adapt to so we must continually assess
whether these models are accurately representing the processes of relevance
to ensure such projections are reliable.  Here we will compare historical
trends in near surface water vapor since 1980 between observation-based
datasets and Earth System Models from the CMIP6 archive.  It will be shown
that there is a major discrepancy in how atmospheric water vapor has
changed over this time period with observation-based trends differing from
the model distribution in a manner that cannot be explained by historical
sea surface temperature trends or internal variability alone.  This
discrepancy displays close links with climatological aridity and is
apparent in arid and semi-arid regions of the world throughout the year and
only in the most arid months of the more humid regions.  In these dry
regions or seasons, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an
increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades
that is close to the magnitude expected based on Clausius Clapeyron
scaling.  However, in observation-based data, this rise in atmospheric
water vapor has not happened with trends in near surface humidity being
near zero, on average.  This suggests that the availability of moisture,
whether that be from the land surface or transport, is lower in reality
than in models in these dry regions, such that the rise in atmospheric
water vapor does not keep up with the increasing atmospheric demand.  This
indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities that
could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, as well as
projections for fire hazard and heat extremes, moving forward.

__________________________________________________

*Zoom login Information:*

*Topic: ATOC Colloquium*
*Time: Oct 13, 2023 11:00 AM Mountain Time (US and Canada)*


*https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579
<https://cuboulder.zoom.us/j/98582201579> Meeting ID: 985 8220 1579 *
*Passcode: ATOC*

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Meeting ID: 985 8220 1579
Passcode: 166543

_______________________________________________________

*Andrew C. Winters*
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)
University of Colorado Boulder
311 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0311
Phone: 303-735-5775
https://acwinters.weebly.com
<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Facwinters.weebly.com%2F&data=05%7C01%7Catoc-colloquium%40colorado.edu%7Cc6d21a193acc4c64e68b08dbc8cfb84f%7C3ded8b1b070d462982e4c0b019f46057%7C1%7C0%7C638324567204944428%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=eiyPAvSBFZ81yoD7iq3O900Pa09AJxRgmJg7cvmPAi4%3D&reserved=0>
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@acwinters_wx || he/him/his

*CU Boulder acknowledges that it is located on the traditional territories
and ancestral homelands of the Cheyenne, Arapaho, Ute and many other Native
American nations. Their forced removal from these territories has caused
devastating and lasting impacts. Full CU Boulder land acknowledgment
<https://www.colorado.edu/about/land-acknowledgement> *

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-- 
Scott Briggs (he/him/his)
Administrator

Advanced Study Program
Education, Engagement and Early-Career Development
National Center For Atmospheric Research
*phone: 303.497.1607*
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