[Grad-postdoc-assn] Fwd: PSL Seminar: Carlos Martinez, Tuesday, Feb 14, 2pm

Fri Feb 10 16:15:23 MST 2023

FYI

---------- Forwarded message ---------
Begin forwarded message:

*Sent on behalf of PSL:*

NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory Seminar
Tue., Feb. 14, 2023 (2 pm)

Webinar connection information is found below.

If COVID-19 Community Level is LOW, DSRC staff may attend in person, Room
1D403. Masks encouraged.
Carlos Martinez
NCAR Climate & Global Dynamics Division
Seasonal Climatology, Variability, Characteristics, and Prediction of the
Caribbean Rainfall Cycle
ABSTRACT: The Caribbean and Central America hydroclimate is understudied
and complex in part due to its data sparsity, varied topographies, and
multi-faceted interactions with tropical and mid-latitude forcings. A
refined and comprehensive understanding of the observed and simulated
Caribbean hydroclimate is presented, using a variety of in-situ and
satellite precipitation products, reanalysis, and models. The seasonal
cycle of rainfall in the Caribbean hinges on three main facilitators of
moisture convergence: the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
the Eastern Pacific ITCZ, and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). A
warm body of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean basin known
as the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) and a low-level jet centered at 925hPa over
the Caribbean Sea known as the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) modify the
extent of moisture provided by these main facilitators. The Early (ERS) and
Late-Rainy Seasons (LRS) are impacted in distinctly different ways by two
different, and largely independent, large-scale phenomena, external to the
region: a SLP dipole mode of variability in the North Atlantic known as the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). The seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle is assessed
using the identified variables that could provide predictive skill of S2S
rainfall characteristics in the region and using the North America
Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The use of SLP, 850-hPa zonal winds (u850),
vertically integrated zonal (UQ), and meridional (VQ) moisture fluxes show
comparable, if not better, forecast skill of Caribbean precipitation
characteristics than SSTs, with lead times of up to two months. Finally,
fully coupled CESM and CMIP6 simulations underestimate precipitation across
the Caribbean, with some improvements using high-resolution (<0.5°)
simulations. The underestimations are largest during the ERS. Precipitation
biases in AMIP experiments are smaller, regardless of their spatial
resolution, suggesting precipitation is improved when observed SST is used.
These results have important implications for prediction, decision-making,
modeling capabilities, understanding the genesis of hydro-meteorological
disasters, investigating rainfall under other modes of variability, and
Caribbean impact studies regarding weather risks and future climate.

Please join this seminar from your computer, tablet or smartphone:
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/343392437
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cL0lPbmst_MYVmOLNrgHPKC8AfuK_YFjXaJANzgd378PGMRE168eGxeocTUxsfGzFCH9pbKSHhdXpaIIaWnRdhP51j_mohpCI-mPuyoVO7o1gGVha8XpLOs57T_ZdOnTHA==&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>

You can also dial in using your phone:
https://global.gotomeeting.com/343392437/numberdisplay.html
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cL0lPbmst_MYTwFR2SB2q4no-bP42owURGTrSc49QNLcJ7Jh_A6BZRq3gtfWGgQlnVp9GEuj_E4sBm8S9gbDNgW1n7EdmfJg9G0AlNx4GNFLPaSCVAxeGL0GM9U_2XUXnCdYX44-m12X&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>
Access Code: 343-392-437

For a list of our seminars, visit: https://psl.noaa.gov/seminars/
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cL0lPbmst_MYdNzKOW4mvbKUdj7uGZT7hpp99QOjsmCFkEAqDXRSh7nXmYbk9TPhmDwiU5F_C9_UM3eG-zZhuAIZAg2aDapS4qPPSVw9IJ2o&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>

Seminar Contact: psl.seminars at noaa.gov  <psl.seminars at noaa.gov>
NOAA PSL | Website
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cL0lPbmst_MYDQORa5s9Rzt3NAxTU2kxlRPfDazReG3HnTixJvFS1CdLJwj-T9x9DVK_HwK3SFwOgQUpf1fSGQE=&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>

[image: Facebook] ‌
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cOFqWnUhSJLg3j4RcFqLqBD1sUooblpb29h-Hd4GVn--tMJfr7HdllNMGbBeI8raIFZzGuVExMO6LFv5KJpe276ARRWa2yKYprMg0kjZr9PZ&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>
[image:
Twitter] ‌
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cMzLRmSPE-2UDv7gGs0dVV8jiCPhQ2LnlRe6m9k-RPT10BegxhA3nnxHDxYk5n33txfMH95Hdv7l5KgN7m2ZelNh3t_ZmyJ0Yw==&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>
[image:
YouTube] ‌
<https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001V06_Ccr8lF2GNIhzn49gNsDVfeGgP1ilnmId7y3wE5NxaL4YUKE0cMzLRmSPE-2Umt6V2tExMA_GskzLQHPJqgSs6WMAjsY6leooxc-D7D1qiUj5OVhSqIJJP3PaQ-nKX6uCVViil1h3sGjmZHU-WmSgytWDcqUh4u_jDDQmh8U=&c=rskz3HPMyZZR7FLxK6nsYWF6LaFSFjUsTgwiLzE6PCBowM2_wwCN7g==&ch=0xHDFHvZxhTW5K4BeixT6wX2U7C26Gi_oxHrjccjSNhtHD6XqAfLcw==>
Earth System Research Laboratories | 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305
Unsubscribe crysti.owens at noaa.gov
<https://visitor.constantcontact.com/do?p=un&m=001SvXe4Ru6sLvZpL0xf--DMQ%3D&ch=4ebaa1a0-f9f0-11e6-a272-d4ae52754b78&ca=1f21c89a-54a3-42c8-9ef9-c569fc1ca9d0>
Constant Contact Data Notice
<https://www.constantcontact.com/legal/customer-contact-data-notice>
Sent by barb.deluisi at noaa.gov powered by
[image: Trusted Email from Constant Contact - Try it FREE today.]
<http://www.constantcontact.com/index.jsp?cc=nge&rmc=VF21_3GE&pn=advantageemail&nav=1f21c89a-54a3-42c8-9ef9-c569fc1ca9d0>
Try email marketing for free today!
<http://www.constantcontact.com/index.jsp?cc=nge&rmc=VF21_3GE&pn=advantageemail&nav=1f21c89a-54a3-42c8-9ef9-c569fc1ca9d0>

-- 

----------------------------------------
Mimi Hughes
(she/her/hers)
Research Meteorologist
NOAA/ESRL/PSL
Phone: 303-497-4865 (work) 818-825-3540 (cell)
mimi.hughes at noaa.gov
----------------------------------------

-- 
Scott Briggs (he/him/his)
Administrator

Advanced Study Program
Education, Engagement and Early-Career Development
National Center For Atmospheric Research
*phone: 303.497.1607*
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://mailman.ucar.edu/pipermail/grad-postdoc-assn/attachments/20230210/fa21988d/attachment-0001.htm>