[Grad-postdoc-assn] ASP Seminar Wednesday October 11: Brian Toon
Mike Waite
waite at ucar.edu
Thu Oct 5 15:22:11 MDT 2006
Please mark your calendars: the first ASP Seminar of 2006/2007 will be
next Wednesday:
Speaker: Brian Toon, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,
University of Colorado Boulder
Title: Consequences of Regional Scale Nuclear Conflicts
When: Wednesday, October 11, 11am-12pm (refreshments at 10:30, lunch to
follow)
Where: FL-2 Main Auditorium 1022
Abstract:
In the 1980s, quantitative studies of the global consequences of a
full-scale nuclear conflict between the superpowers provoked
international scientific and political debate, and deep public concern.
The resulting widespread recognition that such conflicts could produce
global scale damage at unacceptable levels contributed to a still
ongoing reduction of nuclear arsenals and improvements in relationships
between the major nuclear powers. To date, however, no similar
quantitative studies have considered the consequences of potential
nuclear conflicts between emerging smaller nuclear states. Such an
analysis is presented here. Many countries have nuclear weapons, are
constructing them, or are considering such programs. Population and
economic activity are congregated to an increasing extent in
"megacities," which are especially vulnerable to nuclear attack. We
find low-yield weapons can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100
times as much smoke from fires per kt yield than high-yield weapons. A
single low-yield nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to
more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than in major
historical conflicts. A regional war between the smallest current
nuclear states involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.3% of the
current global nuclear arsenal) could produce direct fatalities
comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once
estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers.
Smoke from urban firestorms in such a conflict would rise into the upper
stratosphere where its e-folding lifetime would be greater than 5 years,
much longer than anticipated from previous studies. The smoke would
produce significant global temperature and precipitation changes,
lasting a decade or more, shortening the growing season in the
midlatitudes by up to a month in major agricultural areas, and thus
impacting world food supplies.
Hope to see you there,
-the ASP Seminar Team
(Kelley Barsanti, Peter Lauritzen, Feng Tian, Mike Waite)
More information about the Grad-postdoc-assn
mailing list