[Grad-postdoc-assn] ASP Seminar TODAY
Mike Waite
waite at ucar.edu
Wed Dec 6 08:22:42 MST 2006
Hello all: please plan to attend the seminar and the lunchh
afterwards. It should be a good one.
- ASP Seminar Team (Feng, Kelley, Mike, Peter)
Today, 11:00 am, Mesa Lab Main Seminar Room
(Refreshments from 10:30; lunch with speaker to follow)
Speaker: Joe Tribbia (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR)
Title: Uncertainty Quantification, Predictability and Stochastic
Parameterizations
Abstract:
This seminar will review a number of areas of current research
from the perspective of Uncertainty Quantification, which has been
one of the primary motivation for my interest in these areas. The
talk will progress through efforts to predict the predictability of
weather forecasts using ensemble methods. Techniques developed
there have led to questions concerning the impact of observing
strategies and data assimilation on weather prediction and
predictability. Observing strategy questions have led to further
concerns regarding the nature of spatial scale interactions and the
contamination of large, well-observed scales by the less-well
observed meso and convective scales. The nature of scale
interaction and questions of prediction of uncertainty lead naturally
to the concern for quantifying the uncertainty associated with
parameterized physical processes in models. I will describe some
recent efforts aimed at moving beyond the historical focus in
parameterization, the mean tendency due to the convergence of
rectified unresolved fluxes and examine the need for a broader
approach based on scaling.
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