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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>PhD Opportunity: Characteristics, Drivers, and Mechanisms of Recent Marine Heatwaves to Improve Predictability<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Step into the growing field of climate extremes and their predictability to increase climate resilience of ecosystems and marine businesses.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>The project<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified and become more frequent worldwide over recent decades, impacting fisheries, aquaculture, biodiversity, and coastal communities. One way to reduce this growing risk is through improved predictability
and the establishment of early warning systems (de Boisséson & Balmaseda, 2024; Hartog, Spillman, Smith, & Hobday, 2023; Holbrook et al., 2020; Jacox et al., 2022; Spillman et al., 2025; Sun et al., 2023).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A 3-year project has been initiated to improve the predictability of these extremes over the southwest Pacific using advanced data science techniques. The project brings together researchers from Australia, New Caledonia, USA, and New Zealand.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>This PhD will contribute to this international project by:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l1 level1 lfo1">Characterising recent MHWs and diagnosing their drivers and mechanisms<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l1 level1 lfo1">Improving our ability to predict these events on subseasonal to seasonal timescales<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l1 level1 lfo1">Utilising and evaluating MHW forecasting products<o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal">The successful applicant will work at the interface of climate dynamics, oceanography, and data science—linking process understanding with practical prediction tools for stakeholders (fisheries, aquaculture, conservation).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>What you will do<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2">Compile and analyse in-situ observations and high-resolution hindcast simulations.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2">Detect and characterise MHWs; attribute events using circulation patterns, heat-budget, and teleconnection diagnostics.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2">Improve our understanding of mechanisms, dependencies, and timeframes to advance predictability.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2">Evaluate existing and newly developed MHW forecasts.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2">Contribute to early-warning products with end-users; publish in leading journals and present at conferences.<o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>About you<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Essential<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo3">MSc/First-class Honours (or equivalent) in physical oceanography, climate science, or atmospheric science.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo3">Strong skills in Python (xarray, numpy, pandas, scipy; netCDF; version control) or Matlab and quantitative analysis.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo3">Demonstrated interest in climate/ocean dynamics and predictability.<o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Desirable<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l4 level1 lfo4">Experience with seasonal prediction datasets, reanalysis, or climate model output.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l4 level1 lfo4">Background in time-series verification, extreme-value analysis, or machine learning (PyTorch/TensorFlow, scikit-learn).<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l4 level1 lfo4">HPC/Linux workflow skills; stakeholder engagement.<o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Supervision & environment<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You will be based at Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ*) in Wellington, New Zealand, and enrolled through the University of Auckland’s PhD programme in the Physics Department. Supervisors of your project are Prof. Craig Stevens (Univ. Auckland
and ESNZ), Prof. Neil Holbrook (University of Tasmania), and Dr. Erik Behrens (ESNZ).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You’ll join a collaborative team of ocean and climate scientists working across observation, modelling, and AI over a range of scales. The project offers access to national supercomputing resources, rich forecast archives, and strong links
to government, industry, and international partners.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In addition, you will become part of the University of Auckland/ESNZ Joint Graduate School in Coastal and Marine Science.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Funding & start<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l5 level1 lfo5">Fully funded PhD (tuition + stipend) for 3 years. The project will match University of Auckland Scholarship conditions
<a href="https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/study/scholarships-and-awards/scholarship-types/postgraduate-scholarships/doctoral-scholarships.html">
https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/study/scholarships-and-awards/scholarship-types/postgraduate-scholarships/doctoral-scholarships.html</a> .<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l5 level1 lfo5">Start date: early 2026<o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<br clear="all" style="page-break-before:always">
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>How to apply<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Email one PDF to erik.behrens@niwa.co.nz containing:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<ol style="margin-top:0cm" start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l2 level1 lfo6">Cover letter (max 2 pages): motivation, fit, ideas around your experience and interests which could inform the project.<i><o:p></o:p></i></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l2 level1 lfo6">CV (incl. publications, talks, software).<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l2 level1 lfo6">Academic transcripts.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l2 level1 lfo6">Contact details for two referees.<o:p></o:p></li></ol>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Subject line: PhD Application – Marine Heatwaves<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Application deadline: <b>12<sup>th</sup> October (New Zealand)<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Contact</b>: Erik Behrens (<a href="mailto:erik.behrens@niwa.co.nz">erik.behrens@niwa.co.nz</a>) for any questions in relation to this position.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Equity, diversity & inclusion<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We welcome applications from all backgrounds and are committed to creating a supportive, inclusive research environment.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">*ESNZ Earth Sciences New Zealand was formed in July 2025 through the merger of NIWA and GNS – two leading science agencies.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">de Boisséson, E., & Balmaseda, M. A. (2024). Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system.
<i>Ocean Science, 20</i>(1), 265–278. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Hartog, J. R., Spillman, C. M., Smith, G., & Hobday, A. J. (2023). Forecasts of marine heatwaves for marine industries: Reducing risk, building resilience and enhancing management responses.
<i>Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 209</i>, 105276. <o:p>
</o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Holbrook, N. J., Sen Gupta, A., Oliver, E. C., Hobday, A. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Scannell, H. A., . . . Wernberg, T. (2020). Keeping pace with marine heatwaves.
<i>Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1</i>(9), 482–493. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Amaya, D., Becker, E., Bograd, S. J., Brodie, S., . . . Tommasi, D. (2022). Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.
<i>Nature, 604</i>(7906), 486–490. doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Spillman, C. M., Hobday, A. J., Behrens, E., Feng, M., Capotondi, A., Cravatte, S., . . . Gupta, A. S. (2025). What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used?
<i>Progress In Oceanography, 234</i>, 103464. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Sun, W., Zhou, S., Yang, J., Gao, X., Ji, J., & Dong, C. (2023). Artificial intelligence forecasting of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea using a combined U-Net and ConvLSTM system.
<i>Remote Sensing, 15</i>(16), 4068. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<br>
<div style="margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 1.2;"><b>Dr Erik Behrens </b><br>
<span style="color: #1822f8;">Ocean Modeller <br>
</span>
<div style="width: 100%; white-space: normal; word-break: keep-all;">+64-4-386-0890
</div>
301 Evans Bay Parade Hataitai, Wellington, New Zealand<br>
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