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<p><font size="2" face="Arial">Dear colleagues,<br>
<br>
<span class="540495416-21022014">Today, <strong>Monday </strong></span><strong>24th February 2014</strong><span class="540495416-21022014"> is the
<strong>deadline</strong> for submitting abstracts for </span>presentation in the session on "Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE" at the
<strong>World Weather Open Science Conference</strong> which will be held from 16th to 21st August in Montreal, Canada.<span class="540495416-21022014"> B</span>oth Tim Palmer (University of Oxford) and Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA/MRI) have agreed to give keynote
talks. A detailed description of the session is included below. </font></p>
<p><font face="Arial"><font size="2"><span class="540495416-21022014">If you haven't already done so, p</span>lease submit your abstracts through the conference website:
</font></font><a href="http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml"><font color="#000000" size="2" face="Arial">http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml</font></a><font face="Arial"><font size="2"> , where more information is available<span class="540495416-21022014"> .
</span></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial"><font size="2"><span class="540495416-21022014">Apologies if you have already submitted your abstract, or if you receive duplicate mailings. </span></font></font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Arial">Best wishes,<br>
<br>
Richard Swinbank and Tom Hamill (convenors)</font></p>
<div><font size="2"><font face="Arial"></font></font> </div>
<div><font size="2"><font face="Arial">
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">Ensemble prediction techniques have been adopted to help estimate the uncertainty in weather predictions due to the growth of initial errors (chaos) and model uncertainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Ensemble prediction techniques are a necessity in the medium range and also valuable for short-range forecasts of smaller-scale phenomena. Ensemble prediction requires accurate estimates of uncertainties in both the initial conditions and appropriate
methods for simulating the errors that accrue due to forecast model deficiencies. The primary focus of this session is the use of stochastic and multi-model ensemble techniques to represent the model errors due to unresolved processes. Correctly representing
that stochasticity is one of the major challenges facing earth system prediction.</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">The session will cover both idealised stochastic forcing methods and the implementation of those techniques in practical ensemble prediction systems. Studies evaluating the
performance of ensemble prediction systems using results from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts or its limited-area counterpart (TIGGE-LAM) will be particularly welcome.
</font></p>
</div>
<div><br>
<br>
</font>Dr Richard Swinbank Manager, Ensemble Forecasting Group<br>
Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom <br>
Tel: (+44) 1392 88 6619 Fax: (+44) 1392 88 5681<br>
E-mail: richard.swinbank@metoffice.gov.uk <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/">
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/</a></font> </div>
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