[Stoch] AGU session on modeling natural disasters
Sergey V Kravtsov
kravtsov at uwm.edu
Tue Jul 5 01:08:33 MDT 2016
Please consider presenting your research at the following session in the upcoming AGU Fall meeting -
NH018: Simulating natural disasters using highly resolved and reduced models
Session ID#: 14136
Numerical models of the atmosphere–ocean–geosphere system are the backbone of natural hazard assessment, with numerous applications such as early warning, mitigation, adaptation planning, as well as long-term risk estimation associated with extreme events (floods, hurricanes). Highly resolved models offer most realistic representations of isolated extremes, especially relevant for early warning. However, the use of these models in large-scale catastrophe risk estimation is computationally prohibitive. Here reduced models, developed in the past decades, present promising alternatives providing means to achieve large sample-size simulations of complex systems at low computational cost. We seek presentations on both highly resolved deterministic, and low-dimensional, reduced hazard models, the latter stemming from the entire spectrum of model-reduction methodologies, deterministic or stochastic, purely empirical or incorporating first-principle dynamics. Of interest are accuracy, robustness and efficiency of the simulation codes, as well as procedures dealing with uncertainty at all stages of the modeling chain.
Abstracts to this session may be submitted via https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/Session14136.html. Abstract submission deadline is 3 August 2016.
Jörn Behrens, Boyko Dodov, Michael Herzog, Sergey Kravtsov
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