Pearson, David (Climate Research)
david.pearson at metoffice.gov.uk
Wed Jan 26 03:42:02 MST 2011
> -----Original Message-----
> From: stoch-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu
> [mailto:stoch-bounces at mailman.ucar.edu] On Behalf Of Tim Palmer
> Sent: 24 January 2011 20:01
> To: stoch at mailman.ucar.edu
> Subject: [Stoch] Welcome!
> Dear Colleagues
> Welcome to this new informal network whose aim is to bring
> together people interested in promoting and developing
> stochastic-dynamic methods for improving our weather and
> climate prediction models. We live in rather important and
> rapidly changing times where reliable predictions of future
> weather and climate, on a range of timescales from days to
> centuries, will be at a premium for a variety of purposes.
In my opinion, this is very timely. The power of stochastic
methods in climate is made clear in a recent paper:
"Influence of feedback on the stochastic evolution of simple
climate systems" by L. MAHADEVAN AND J. M. DEUTCH,
Proc. R. Soc. A 2010 466, 993-1003.
In that paper, some details of the probability densities
of changes in the Earth's temperature are derived from
"stochasticized" differential equations, under different
conditions of validity. This would not have been possible
with "traditional" methods.
The paper works with a very simple model of global warming
under greenhouse-gas forcing - only two equations are involved.
I imagine that a complex Earth-system model, with internal
stochasticity, giving probabilistic outputs, would lead
to many surprises that would be of science and policy interest.
Regards from dp.
David Pearson - Carbon Cycle Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)1392 885149 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
Email: david.pearson at metoffice.gov.uk Web: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
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