<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:small;color:#000000"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><br><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(68,68,68)"><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="684" style="border-collapse:collapse">
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt"> </span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:36pt;font-family:Cambria,serif;color:rgb(108,63,181)">JCSDA
Seminar</span></b></p>
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<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:20.7pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Title</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Analysis
and Prediction of Clouds Using Satellite All-Sky Radiances: Lessons Learned
and Perspectives</span></b></p>
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<tr style="height:0.45in">
<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:0.45in;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Speaker</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Thomas Auligné</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">NCAR,
Earth System Laboratory Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division</span></p>
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<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:40.05pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Date, Time & Place</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">September
17, 2014 - 2:00pm</span></b><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Conference
Center, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, 5830 University Research Court, College
Park, MD</span><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif"></span></p>
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<tr style="height:206.55pt">
<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:206.55pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Abstract</span></b></p>
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<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><a name="1487f7ab9af838bb_148603482d5b2c91__GoBack"></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">The initialization
of cloud parameters is one of the main frontiers for improving short-term
prediction skills in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We will
present the latest developments at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) in building a capability to accurately initialize cloud
parameters based on all-sky satellite observations assimilated in the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model. Two approaches have been
considered: </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">1) A nowcasting system with a simplified
cloud fraction. The analysis is designed to closely fit radiance observations
and the NWP model dynamically transports clouds without involving the
physics. This method is computationally efficient and useful for short-term
forecast since it does not suffer from the typical imbalances often
associated with model re-initializations.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">2) A multivariate analysis including the
microphysics parameters. It relies on a hybrid ensemble/variational data
assimilation system with an augmented control variable for clouds. Specific
developments to address non-linearities in the observation operator and
non-Gaussian error distributions will be presented. We will also introduce
original algorithms to correct for position errors and estimate the analysis
error within the variational data assimilation system. </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">The current analysis shows a sustained
impact on cloud forecast, yet there are still many challenges data
assimilation will need to address to optimize the use of satellite all-sky
observations.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"></span></p>
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<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:90.9pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><i><span style="font-size:14pt">Remote
Access</span></i></b><i></i></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Video:</span></i></b><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"> 1.</span></i><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt"> </span></i><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Go to </span></i><a href="https://star-nesdis-noaa.webex.com/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">JCSDA Seminar</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt"> and click
on the seminar title</span></i><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"><br>
2. Enter your name and email address. <br>
3. No password is necessary<br>
4. Click "Join Now". <br>
5. Follow the instructions that appear on your screen. <br>
<b>Audio: </b>USA participants:
1-866-715-2479, Passcode: 9457557<br>
International:
1-517-345-5260</span></i></p>
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<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:17.55pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Contact</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">If you would like to present a
seminar contact </span><a href="mailto:Erin.Jones@noaa.gov" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Erin.Jones@noaa.gov</span></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"></span></p>
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<td width="114" style="width:85.5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-right-color:windowtext;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-left-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:26.55pt;background:rgb(184,204,228)">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><b><span style="font-size:14pt">Seminar Files</span></b></p>
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<td width="570" valign="top" style="width:427.5pt;border-style:none solid solid none;border-bottom-color:windowtext;border-bottom-width:1pt;border-right-color:windowtext;border-right-width:1pt;padding:0.1in;height:26.55pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Slides available prior to, and audio
recording after, the presentation at </span><a href="http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/JCSDASeminars.php" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/JCSDASeminars.php</span></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif"></span></p>
</td>
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</tbody></table></div><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><font color="#6600cc" face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><b><i>Ana Carrion</i></b></span></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><font size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</font></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Program Support Specialist</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Riverside (RTi) at NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/JCSDA</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">NCWCP, E/RA, Room #2652</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">5830 University Research CT</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">College Park, MD 20740-3818</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Email: <a href="mailto:Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov" target="_blank">Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov</a></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>JCSDA Front Office: 301-683-3615</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>STAR Front Office: 301-683-3485 </b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>Main Line: 301-683-3520</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Fax: 301-683-3526</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font face="georgia, serif"><br></font></div></div>
</div>
</div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><font color="#6600cc" face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><b><i>Ana Carrion</i></b></span></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><font size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</font></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Program Support Specialist</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Riverside (RTi) at NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/JCSDA</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">NCWCP, E/RA, Room #2652</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">5830 University Research CT</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">College Park, MD 20740-3818</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Email: <a href="mailto:Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov" target="_blank">Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov</a></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>JCSDA Front Office: 301-683-3615</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>STAR Front Office: 301-683-3485 </b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>Main Line: 301-683-3520</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Fax: 301-683-3526</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font face="georgia, serif"><br></font></div></div>
</div>
</div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><font color="#6600cc" face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><b><i>Ana Carrion</i></b></span></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><font size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</font></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Program Support Specialist</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Riverside (RTi) at NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/JCSDA</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">NCWCP, E/RA, Room #2652</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">5830 University Research CT</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">College Park, MD 20740-3818</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Email: <a href="mailto:Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov" target="_blank">Ana.Carrion@noaa.gov</a></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>JCSDA Front Office: 301-683-3615</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>STAR Front Office: 301-683-3485 </b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><b>Main Line: 301-683-3520</b></font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)" size="1" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Fax: 301-683-3526</font></div><div style="text-align:left"><font face="georgia, serif"><br></font></div></div>
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