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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" align="center"><b style><span style="font-size:36.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#6c3fb5">JCSDA
Seminar</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b><span style="font-size:20.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering</span></b><b style><span style="font-size:20.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Speaker</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b style><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Ricardo Todling <br>
NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date, Time & Place</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b style><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Wednesday, January 16, 2013<br>
</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2:00 – 3:00 PM<br>
</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Conference
Center, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, <span style>5830 University Research Court, College
Park, MD</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Abstract</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"" lang="X-NONE">The
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is close to upgrading its
system with a hybrid-ensemble analysis. Initially this effort has followed
the pathway taken by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
in adding to its three-dimensional variational (3d-Var) analysis a 3d
ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF provides an ensemble of analyses used
to generate an ensemble of backgrounds for the hybrid Grid-point Statistical
Interpolation (GSI) analysis. Two steps link the EnKF with GSI: re-centering
of the ensemble members around the GSI analysis; and addition of inflating
errors to the re-centered ensemble analyses to mimic the effect of model
error. At first GMAO avoided this latter step given it is theoretically
difficult to justify it. Under re-centering only, we quickly found there was
no clear benefit from the hybrid approach; with additive inflation, the
hybrid strategy surely brought in the expected improvements. The key role
played by these additive perturbations, created from 48-minus-24 hour
forecast differences, led us to consider a situation where an ensemble of
analyses is generated by simply adding these perturbations to the central
analysis. This presentation compares this alternative to the original
implementation. The proposed scheme leads to computational savings and avoids
need to maintain two analysis systems.</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Remote Access</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b style><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Video:</span></b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""> 1.</span> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Go to </span><a href="https://star-nesdis-noaa.webex.com/"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">JCSDA Seminar</span></a> and click on the seminar title<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><br>
</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2. Enter your
name and email address. <br>
3. Enter the meeting password: JCSDAseminars707<br>
4. Click "Join Now". <br>
5. Follow the instructions that appear on your screen. <br>
<b style>Audio: </b>USA participants:
1-866-715-2479, Passcode: 9457557<br>
International:
1-517-345-5260</span><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Contact</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style>If you would like to
present a seminar contact <a href="mailto:George.Ohring@noaa.gov">George.Ohring@noaa.gov</a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Seminar File</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style>Slides available prior to,
and audio recording after, the presentation at <a href="http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/JCSDASeminars.php">http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/JCSDASeminars.php</a></p>
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