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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" align="center"><b style><span style="font-size:36.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#6c3fb5">JCSDA
Seminar</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Hidden Error Variance Theory and its
use in Hybrid Data Assimilation</span></b><b style><span style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Speaker</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Craig Bishop<br>
Naval Research Laboratory </span></b><b style><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date, Time & Place</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Friday,
<span style> </span>November 2, 2012<br>
</span></b><b style><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:red">2:00 – 3:00 PM, Conference Center</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate
Prediction, <span style>5830 University Research
Court, College Park, MD </span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Abstract</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">A conundrum of
predictability research is that while the prediction of flow dependent error
distributions is one of its main foci, chaos fundamentally hides flow
dependent forecast error distributions from empirical observation. Empirical
estimation of such error distributions requires that one obtain a large
sample of error realizations given the same flow and the same observational
network.<span style> </span>However, chaotic elements of
the flow and the observing network make it practically impossible to observe
and collect the conditioned sample of errors required to empirically define
such distributions and their variance. These variances are “hidden”. Here, an
exposition of the problem is developed from an ensemble Kalman filter data
assimilation system applied to a 10 variable non-linear chaotic model and
25,000 replicate models. The output from this system motivates a new
analytical model for the distribution of true error variances given an
imperfect ensemble variance. This model is defined by 6 parameters that also
determine the optimal weights for the static and flow dependent parts of
Hybrid error variance models.<span style> </span>Six new
equations enable these hidden parameters to be accurately estimated from a
long time series of (innovation, ensemble variance) data pairs.<span style> </span>This new-found ability to estimate hidden
parameters provides new tools for assessing the quality of ensemble
forecasts, tuning Hybrid error variance models and for post-processing ensemble
forecasts. Preliminary results from attempts to use the theory to speed the
tuning of Hybrid data assimilation schemes will also be presented.</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Remote Access</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><b style><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Video:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""> 1.</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"> </span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Go to </span><a href="https://star-nesdis-noaa.webex.com/"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">JCSDA Seminar</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt">
and click on the seminar title</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><br>
2. Enter your name and email address. <br>
3. Enter the meeting password: JCSDAseminars707<br>
4. Click "Join Now". <br>
5. Follow the instructions that appear on your screen. <br>
<b style>Audio: </b>USA participants:
1-866-715-2479, Passcode: 9457557<br>
International:
1-517-345-5260</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:right" align="right"><b style><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Contact</span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style><span style="font-size:10.0pt">If you would like to present a seminar contact </span><a href="mailto:George.Ohring@noaa.gov"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">George.Ohring@noaa.gov</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt"></span></p>
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