[Nsa] ASP Seminar location/time change

[Scott Briggs]

Due to recent inconsistency with the Staff Notes Daily email, I'm 
sending this announcement to the NSA & ECSA lists since the location and 
time have changed and the seminar is tomorrow. Details and abstract below.

Best regards,
Scott

Advanced Study Program Seminar
*Wednesday October 2nd 2013, 11:00 a.m.**
**Mesa Laboratory, Main Seminar Room*
Refreshments served before the seminar


*Sarah Michaels**
**University of Nebraska**
**Department of Political Science*


Uncertainty, policy and atmospheric scientists

*Abstract:*

Atmospheric scientists play – and potentially could play an even more 
vital role – in public policy through their work in forecasting and 
predicting matters vital to societal interests. As decision makers 
increasingly recognize societal dependence on non-stationary natural 
systems they must use forecasts and predictions to make choices about 
the future. If so, how come the work of atmospheric scientists doesn’t 
always constitute a key contribution to salient public policy? For 
atmospheric scientists to become policy savvy begins with recognizing 
key dimensions of the policy making process. This is a critical first 
step for atmospheric scientists to determine when there is potential for 
them to contribute persuasively to policy and when there is not. If 
there is, such understanding provides the basis for engaging effectively 
in making strategic contributions to expertise-related policy.

A second vital step for atmospheric scientists in assessing their 
potential contributions to policy making is to develop an appreciation 
of uncertainty beyond their professional understanding of it. Policy 
makers as well as researchers outside of the atmospheric science 
community do not necessarily treat uncertainty as do atmospheric 
scientists. Rather than sorting through the many meanings of 
uncertainty, it is helpful to think in terms of indeterminism, which 
holds even if the current state of nature is known exactly there is no 
certain future. A basic consequence of indeterminism is the necessity of 
deciding absent perfect information. The extent and combination of 
different sources of indeterminism shape the potential of science to 
contribute to decision making. To illustrate how combining the natural 
and social sources of indeterminism matters four examples from 
socio-ecological system management are presented; Midcontinent Mallards, 
Laysan Ducks, Pallid Sturgeon, and Rocky Mountain Grey Wolves. Where 
natural indeterminism is low, reasonably accurate predictions may serve 
as decision making inputs. Where social indeterminism is high, 
scientists, while acknowledging the primacy of societal-based concerns, 
can enlarge the array of science-based possibilities considered by 
decision makers (Michaels and Tyre 2012).

The need to connect the atmospheric science community to policy making 
is well recognized (Morss et al. 2008). Yet, little explicit attention 
has been paid to how ensembles feature, if they do, in policy. This is 
problematic because ensembles, representing a range of uncertainties and 
possible future states, have become a mainstay of weather forecasting 
and climate prediction. What circumstances and factors influence the 
uptake of ensemble forecasts and predictions by policy makers? 
Addressing this question will advance our comprehension of the 
science-policy interface and contribute to strengthening links between 
atmospheric scientists and policy makers.

Source cited
Michaels, S. and Tyre, A.J. 2012. How indeterminism shapes ecologists’ 
contributions to managing socio-ecological systems. Conservation Letters 
5:4:289-295.
Morss, R.E., Lazo, J.K. Brown, B.G. Brooks, H.E. Ganderton, P.T. and 
Mills, B.N. 2008. Societal and economic research and applications for 
weather forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX program. 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(3) 335–346.


-- 
Scott Briggs
Administrative Assistant
Advanced Study Program
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
303-497-1607