[NARCCAP-discuss] Does NARCCAP use the A1B SRES scenario?

Michael Wehner mfwehner at lbl.gov
Thu May 19 12:17:54 MDT 2011


This is true. However for your purposes it does not matter as the separation between A1B and A2 is not statistically significant until very late in this century. As the NARCCAP simulations are mid century,I would suggest that they are not different in any real sense than if they had used A1B. See the picture attached from IPCC AR4. The curves are well within each other's uncertainty in mid-century
Hope that this helps.
Michael Wehner
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On May 19, 2011, at 11:03 AM, Antonia Rosati wrote:

> To Whom it may concern:
> I apologize for asking what is likely a very basic question but I want 
> to make sure I understand what is available on this site (NARCCAP) 
> correctly.  Are the only simulations available those forced with the 
> A2 SRES scenario?  I am looking for output for the A1B SRES scenario 
> and am not sure how to find these on the NARCCAP site.
> Thank you for your response to this question.
> 
> ~water resources engineer
> ______________________________
> 
> Greetings!  I'm glad you asked...much better than being frustrated!
> 
> The short answer is:
> At this time, we are only running the A2 SRES.
> 
> 
> A more descriptive answer is:
> The A2 scenario is at the higher end of the SRES emissions scenarios 
> (but not the highest). This was preferred because, from an impacts and 
> adaptation point of view, if one can adapt to a larger climate change, 
> then the smaller climate changes of the lower end scenarios can also 
> be adapted to. Instead of testing SRES senarios, we decided to focus 
> on the uncertainty across different AOGCMs and RCMs. Hence, we chose 
> to use only one emissions scenario, which is used for all simulations. 
> We chose the A2 emissions scenario since it was one of the 'marker' 
> scenarios developed through the IPCC and was a common one used at the 
> time NARCCAP was being planned.
> 
> 
> A more extensive explanation of why NARCCAP is currently only running 
> the A2 senario...
> http://narccap.ucar.edu/about/emissions.html
> 
> 
> Cheers!
> 
> Toni Rosati
> NARCCAP User Community Liaison
> National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
> narccap at ucar.edu
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> narccap-discuss at mailman.ucar.edu
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