[Grad-postdoc-assn] ASP Seminar Wednesday October 11: Brian Toon

[Mike Waite]

Please mark your calendars: the first ASP Seminar of 2006/2007 will be 
next Wednesday:

Speaker: Brian Toon, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 
University of Colorado Boulder

Title: Consequences of Regional Scale Nuclear Conflicts

When: Wednesday, October 11, 11am-12pm (refreshments at 10:30, lunch to 
follow)

Where: FL-2 Main Auditorium 1022

Abstract:

In the 1980s, quantitative studies of the global consequences of a 
full-scale nuclear conflict between the superpowers provoked 
international scientific and political debate, and deep public concern. 
  The resulting widespread recognition that such conflicts could produce 
global scale damage at unacceptable levels contributed to a still 
ongoing reduction of nuclear arsenals and improvements in relationships 
between the major nuclear powers.  To date, however, no similar 
quantitative studies have considered the consequences of potential 
nuclear conflicts between emerging smaller nuclear states.  Such an 
analysis is presented here. Many countries have nuclear weapons, are 
constructing them, or are considering such programs.  Population and 
economic activity are congregated to an increasing extent in 
"megacities," which are especially vulnerable to nuclear attack.  We 
find low-yield weapons can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 
times as much smoke from fires per kt yield than high-yield weapons.  A 
single low-yield nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to 
more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than in major 
historical conflicts.  A regional war between the smallest current 
nuclear states involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.3% of the 
current global nuclear arsenal) could produce direct fatalities 
comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once 
estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. 
Smoke from urban firestorms in such a conflict would rise into the upper 
stratosphere where its e-folding lifetime would be greater than 5 years, 
much longer than anticipated from previous studies.  The smoke would 
produce significant global temperature and precipitation changes, 
lasting a decade or more, shortening the growing season in the 
midlatitudes by up to a month in major agricultural areas, and thus 
impacting world food supplies.


Hope to see you there,
-the ASP Seminar Team
(Kelley Barsanti, Peter Lauritzen, Feng Tian, Mike Waite)